Forget About That Road Trip; the Maturation of a Star

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

A miserable 2-8 road trip seemingly left every Reds fan and player reeling. The pitching has been completely decimated (they've made 15 transactions involving pitchers in the last week, and are starting their 7th different starter in the last 10 games) and the offense has been relegated to the lone bat of Jay Bruce. Even worse was the lack of luck the Reds had, going 0-5 in one run games. Their only two wins came on Tuesday night in Philly, where Bruce broke a 3-3 tie with a three run double, and a 5-1 win in the opener in Atlanta, where Mike Leake threw 6 solid innings. Even with the eight losses, the trip wasn't as bad as it looked on paper, though. Look, they got shellacked the final day in Cleveland 12-4, and the opener in Philly 10-3. Those were definitely ugly. The other 6 losses weren't as bad as they seemed, however. Of course they had the brutally tough 5-4 loss in that 19 inning game last Wednesday. And that game was as ugly as it got. They had 11 hits off of Roy Halladay, including a big game tying two run single from Jay Bruce, but only managed 3 runs. Bruce also homered in the 10th, before Cordero blew it in the bottom of the inning. You know the rest, with Brandon's boneheaded play and Wilson Valdez looking Cy Young, etc. Even the 10-4 loss on Thursday afternoon was somewhat bearable. Why? Because they battled back against Cliff Lee, who had a 4-0 lead, and got him for 10 hits, including a Jay Bruce two run homer (picking up on a theme here?). If it weren't for the fact the bullpen was absolutely gassed, the Reds wouldn't have had to turn to Darryl Thompson, who gave up 5 runs in 3 innings. The kid had just come up from AA, what did you expect? Had Homer Bailey not gotten hurt, the Reds probably could have had a chance to win that game. And the two losses in Atlanta were not bad at all. A 7-6 loss in 12 innings, where the Reds had rallied from down 5-0, and a 2-1 loss on Sunday night, where Johnny Cueto threw a complete game and Jay Bruce homered.

Now, don't get me wrong, I hate losing as much as the next guy, but if anyone thought the Reds would come out of that road trip with a winning record, they were fooling themselves. I was hoping for a .500 trip. There were more than enough opportunities for that to happen. If the Reds win one of those games in Cleveland, win the 19 inning game in Philly, and win the 12 inning game in Atlanta, all of the sudden it doesn't look too bad. If you pick the 2-1 loss in Cleveland, then those three games were all one run losses. Score a few more runs, and the Reds would have split in Philly and taken 2 of 3 from the Braves. It didn't happen, though. Games like the Reds played on that trip even out over the course of the season. We'll see what happens. For now, it looks like the cure for the Reds' woes was to come home to play the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite an NL best 21-7 home record, the Brewers are a brutal 8-18 on the road and are 1-11 in their last 12 at Great American Ball Park. The Reds are a stunning 21-4 in their last 25 games against the Brewers, including 6-1 this season. And Cincy, led by Bruce's three run homer, beat Milwaukee 7-3 last night. Hopefully that dominance will continue tonight, as newcomer Chad Reineke will take the hill for Cincinnati, making his first appearance since August 5, 2009 for the Oakland A's. He will face one of Milwaukee's big offseason acquisitions in Zack Greinke, who is 3-1 with a 5.79 ERA in 28 innings. Greinke also has 39 strikeouts compared to just 3 walks, so the Reds better be prepared to go up swinging.

And he'll be facing a slightly reordered lineup tonight for the Reds, with Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen flipping places in the order. At this point in their careers, Bruce has become more suited to hit behind Votto, while Rolen has only homered 9 times in his last 118 games. As much as I love Scotty, he's not a cleanup hitter any more. Yes, he had a terrific run at it last year. Now, he's more suited to hit 5th or 6th. Let him drive the ball to right center instead of trying to pull the ball to left. Hopefully the change can get Rolen's bat going again. The Reds need it.

Lastly, let's spend some time taking a look at the Reds' new cleanup hitter, Jay Bruce. If Bruce doesn't win the NL Player of the Month, I'll be shocked. He's hit .346 with 12 homers and 32 RBI's. That ties Eric Davis' club record for the most homers in the month of May, and is just two off of Frank Robinson and Greg Vaughn's record for the most in any month. Overall, he's hitting .294 with 16 homers, 43 RBI's, and a .937 OPS (On Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage). He's on pace for 47 and 127. Can anyone else say MVP? But how in the world has this happened? Over August, September and a few days in October last year, Bruce hit 15 bombs with 29 batted in. He also posted batting averages over .326 in each month. But what he did at the end of last year doesn't compare to what he is doing now. So why has Bruce improved so much? He recently stated that it is because of his consistency at the plate, and his pitch recognition. What do the numbers say? (All stats from here.)

The Enquirer/ Joseph Fuqua II

• Bruce's average on batted balls in play has actually fallen 24 points from this year to last year, so it's not like he's been luckier.
• His walk percentage is actually down, too, from 10.1 to 9.3%. That would make one believe he's been less patient. Not true.
• The strikeout percentage is down, as well, from 26.7 to 23.0%. 
• He's making contact on 61% of pitches outside the zone, compared to just 53.7% last year. Thus, Bruce has been able to get to more pitches and foul them off. That wears a pitcher down and gives him a better chance of getting something to hit.
• And making contact has been key for Bruce, who is seeing 1.5% less fastballs, while seeing 2.4% more curveballs and 3.5% more changeups. Fouling off those pitches means more mistakes from the pitchers, and more fastballs to Bruce. And we all know what happens when a pitcher misses his mark with a fastball.
• On those fastballs, Bruce is worth 5.6 runs above the average player. And, if you're thinking about getting him out with a slider, he has actually improved from below average to 3.2 runs above average.
• Lastly, Bruce is hitting .381 against lefties, the biggest reason that Dusty cannot be afraid to bat him behind Joey. There aren't many lefties around that can get both of them out (Votto is hitting .426 against lefties and .299 for his career.)

Clearly, Jay has improved greatly overall as a player. His ability to hit consistently for the rest of the year will lead to better pitches to hit for Joey Votto. At this point, a pitcher would rather walk Votto and go after Rolen. Now, Jay is actually hitting better than Joey. And we all know Votto won't stay down for much longer, if you can even call a .330 average down. For opponents now, it's time to pick your poison.