37 Games In, What Have We Learned?

You would think with it being summer and all, I could find the time to write this blog more often. My bad. And now I find myself in the tedious position of having to catch up on all the games I haven't talked about since the opener of a series in St. Louis weeks ago. Well, I'm not going to recap those games for you. Instead, let's get into some other topics dealing with the Reds.

AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh

Thirty seven games into the season, the Cincinnati Reds sit at 20-17. Last year, at this many games into the season, the Reds sat at 21-16. So, not much of a difference. As a team, they are hitting .263, with 44 homers, 185 RBIs, 31 stolen bases, and 189 runs scored. They lead the league in homers, are third in average, second in runs scored, and second in stolen bases. In other words, without getting into the sabermetrics of it all, the Reds' offense has been fairly prolific. The offense that led the league in almost every category last year seems to be up to that par, again. And the Reds might be clicking at the same time they did last year, too. It was on the 37th game last year when Cincinnati took first place, and if the Cardinals lose today, Cincy will be just a 1/2 game back going into a big weekend series against St. Louis. Last year, it was a weekend series against the Cardinals when the Reds grabbed first place. Sound familiar? Last year they were 14-15 before they reeled off 9/10 to take first place. Through the 30 game mark this year, they sat at 15-15, just like last season. They've won 6 out of 8, including going 4-2 on the road trip, after slumping horribly after the 5-0 start. So who is this team? The one that took off like last year, and played well early and lately this year? Or the one that slumped at 10-15 after the 5-0 start? I tend to believe its going to be the same story as last year, and it all has to do with the pitching.



AP/Pat Sullivan

 It was this time last year when the pitching finally began to click. Remember the back to back complete game shutouts by Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto? Or the three complete games in 6 days by the club? Reds starters went 15-4 last May, and the club posted a solid 3.84 ERA. So what was the solution to this year's team's ailing starting rotation? Cueto and Bailey. Homer is 2-0 in his first two starts, throwing 13 innings of 9 hit one walk baseball. He's given up one run in those two starts (both against the Astros) and struck out 12. Cueto went 6 shutout innings against the Cubbies in his debut, striking out 4 and giving up just 5 hits. Take a look at the Reds last 8 starts:

5/4: Travis Wood: 6 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs, 7 Ks, 4 BB (No Decision - Win)
5/5: Homer Bailey: 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 7 Ks, 1 BB (Win)
5/6: Edinson Volquez: 5 innings, 6 hits, 4 runs, 3 Ks, 4 BB (Win)
5/7: Bronson Arroyo: 7 1/3 innings, 7 hits, 1 run, 3 Ks, 2 BB (No Decision - Loss)
5/8: Johnny Cueto: 6 innings, 5 hits, 0 runs, 4 Ks, 1 BB (Win)
5/9: Travis Wood: 6 2/3 innings, 6 hits, 0 runs, 6 Ks, 1 BB (Win)
5/10: Homer Bailey: 7 innings, 5 hits, 0 runs, 5 Ks, 0 BB (Win)
5/11: Edinson Volquez: 4 innings, 3 hits, 3 runs, 3 Ks, 5 BB (No Decision - Loss)



AP Photo/Pat Sullivan



Anyone else see the glaring weakness in this rotation? Yes, it's the Opening Day starter, Edinson Volquez. How he is 3-1 is beyond me. The batting average against him is just .242. He's averaging almost a strikeout an inning at 8.72, but he has also walked 33 batters to go with those 41 strikeouts. That means He's only averaging 1.24 strikeouts per walks. When he won 17 games, that number was 2.22. Also, batters aren't just drawing more walks, they're hitting him harder: the slugging percentage against Volquez is .425, whereas it was .351 when he was an All Star. He's also averaging a pitch more per inning this year than he did in his little time the past two years and from 2008. This, along with the walks, is why he is averaging just 5 1/3 innings this year, compared to a little over 6 innings in 2008. Look, I like Volquez. I like his stuff, too. I will even defend the Josh Hamilton trade, which is tough since Hamilton is my favorite player. But, the Reds made the right move, at the time. We had all seen too many summers die early at Great American because people like Eric Milton, Paul Wilson, Brandon Claussen, and Dave Williams were taking the hill. Those guys didn't have the stuff to get minor leaguers out. Volquez, when right, can make Albert Pujols look foolish. I get it. You win with pitching, which the Reds didn't have. They had offense, and more on the way. Wayne Krivsky knew that. Now, it's up to Bryan Price and Dusty Baker to fix Volquez. And trust me, no one wants to throw strikes more than Edinson. Remember the extension he turned down in the winter? Think he regrets that now? No way he's getting that kind of offer again this offseason. Other than him, the last turn and a half through the rotation has been extremely solid. It looks like the kind of pitching we all expected coming into the season.

Speaking of struggling pitchers, what's up with Aroldis Chapman? Check out his last three lines:

4/30 vs. Florida: 1 IP, 1H, 2ER, 3BB, 3Ks
5/5 vs. Houston: 0 IP, 1H, 1ER, 2BB, 0Ks
5/10 vs. Houston: 0 IP, 0H, 3ER, 3BB, 0Ks, 1HBP



AP Photo/Denis Poroy

 What the heck? He now has 16 walks and 15 strikeouts for the season. Yes, Bryan Price, it is mechanical, I agree. But the kid needs to learn to take the fastball down to about 92 and just get it over the plate. Good Lord, guys are only hitting .146 against him, just get it over the plate!! And Dusty says that they won't send him to the minors to get things straightened out. Well, how else is he going to figure it out? He certainly won't if he's only pitching every 5 days. Get Mario Soto up here ASAP to work with Chapman and get this kid's confidence back.


Sticking with the slump theme, where has Jonny Gomes gone? Raise your hand if you'd rather him hack at that first pitch fastball instead of trying to work a walk, knowing that in the end he will look at a pitch right down the middle for strike three or swing over a changeup on the outside part of the plate. Look, he's still on pace to blast 26 homers and drive in 74 runs while walking 96 times. He's also on pace to score 79 times, which is higher than last season. The walk total and homer total is also significantly higher than last year, too. But the RBIs are down, mainly because the hits are down. When the guy gets hot, he's hot. He'll carry the team for weeks. But when Jonny goes cold, it's brutal. He's hitting .192. The guy couldn't buy a break if he wanted to. Will he come out of it? I don't know. He's always been a part time player, up until last year. I hope he comes out of this, I really do. Gomes is one of my favorite players, and he is part of the swagger that this team has. Hopefully, he'll come back around. By the way, check out this cool E:60 story that ESPN ran on the Reds' slugger.

Well, let's end this on a positive note, ok? Scotty Rolen might be back in the lineup Friday night, and the Reds would love to get him back. He is critical to this team, even when he isn't hitting all that well. They're   8-7 this year when he starts, and 73-52 when he started last year. That means they were 18-19 when he didn't. And, when he came over in 2009, the Reds were 27-13 down the stretch with him in the lineup. I can't explain the magic that Rolen brings to this team, but it's special. Hopefully he'll be back in there Friday and get that sweet swing going again.

Finally, check out the link here for some Brandon Phillips highlights of the season. I don't think I need to say anything else. Hopefully I can be more consistent with these posts from now on, maybe a couple per week. I'll get one out on Sunday about the Reds-Cards series at Great American this weekend, and some other stuff from around baseball. Have a good weekend everybody, and make it down to the park this weekend to support your Reds!