Monday, May 23, 2011

Reeling Reds Hit the City of Brotherly Love

That went exactly as I feared. Since sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals, the Reds have struggled mightily. They're 2-5 since the sweep, including losing those 5 games in a row. The two wins came as gifts from the Chicago Cubs, who simply imploded in their two games in the Queen City. One game, Cubs' ace Carlos Zambrano was cruising through 5 innings of one hit ball when the wheels fell off. The Reds reached 10 straight batters and scored 7 runs to win 7-4. The following night was an absolute joke, and showed the incompetence with which the Chicago Cubs play baseball. A pair of errors allowed the Reds to score 7 unearned runs - 1 off of an error by Carlos Pena, 2 off of an error by Matt Garza who threw a ball into the camera well, and 4 more after Kerry Wood threw a ball down the left field line. The fact that the Cubs can still call themselves a Major League team is embarrassing.

The Enquirer/Joseph Fuqua II
Next came a two game sweep at the hands of the Pittsburgh Pirates. A complete game shutout by Pirates' starter Charlie Morton should have come as no surprise, considering he threw a complete game against them on April 15. In that game, he didn't give up a run until the 9th inning on a Jay Bruce home run. This time, he made it look easy, only needed 106 pitches to toss the shutout. And there wasn't anything special that he did. Like some of the great sinker ball pitchers, he kept it low and got 15 ground ball outs, compared to just 7 fly ball outs. Morton is 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA, a year after he went 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA. The kid has a filthy fastball that moves everywhere. And he changes speeds on it. Over the offseason, he watched video of Roy Halladay and patterned his new delivery and gameplan after him. I'd say it's working so far. The next day represented Johnny Cueto's first bad start of the year, as he walked 3 and gave up 3 runs in 5 innings of work. Meanwhile, James McDonald was on his game and handcuffed the Reds over 6 2/3 innings of work. A pair of Jay Bruce homers weren't enough en route to a 5-3 loss.

AP Photo/Tony Dejak
None of those losses to the Pirates, however, stung as much as the sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians. I don't know why I'm upset over those games, it's not like Cleveland is bad. In fact, they are the best (record-wise) in baseball at 29-15 with a +66 run differential. I don't know. Something tells me the Indians aren't for real, probably just because I can't name a ton of people on their roster. I know, I know, that's a crappy reason to not believe in them. I just don't. Sorry. None of their pitchers have a track record other than Fausto Carmona, who has only shown that he can be inconsistent. Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner are important pieces to that team, and I don't know if they can stay healthy. Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, and Shin-Soo Choo are talented players as well, but how will they react to having to carry a team? At the same time, I realize so many people asked these questions about the Reds from last year. I'm not buying into the Indians yet; let the last 120 or so games play themselves out.

Anyway, back to the games. The Reds coughed up the first two games, after a 4-0 lead in the first, and a 1-0 lead in the 7th inning in the second. Both of them stung a lot, considering the good pitching performances the Reds had. Travis Wood had a no hitter through 5 1/3 innings, and then never got another batter out. In the second game, Homer Bailey took a one hitter into the 6th inning, and was an out away from 7 shutout innings. But he left a fastball out over the plate and Travis Buck hit it out for a 2-1 Indians lead, which would be the final. The last game was an unmitigated disaster. Edinson Volquez coughed up 4 first inning runs, and 7 over 2 2/3 innings. Cincinnati also played hot potato with the baseball, including an embarrassing two run error by Ramon Hernandez after a failed run down by Brandon Phillips.

Getty Images/Joe Robbins

After the start on Sunday, Edinson had this to say, "Everybody has to step up. Start to score some runs. In the last five games, how many runs have we scored? Like 13? That’s not the way we were playing last year. We’re better than that.” Get over yourself Volquez. Really? Blame it on the offense? 21 first inning runs over 11 starts and it's the offense's fault? They've trailed in every single game in which he has pitched. That can't happen, not for a team that considers this guy to be their "ace" and the man they tabbed as the Opening Day Starter. Apparently, Dusty and Walt agreed. Today the Reds shipped Edinson Volquez and Jordan Smith down to Louisville. Hopefully Rick Sweet and Teddy Power can get Edinson straightened out. If not, I doubt he will ever pitch in a Reds' uniform again. The guy has all of the talent in the world, but he doesn't have the same kind of maturity above the shoulders. Coming up are reliever/starter Matt Maloney, and utility man Todd Frazier. Frazier can play outfield and infield, and was the Reds' top prospect in 2010 before the Aroldis Chapman signing. He was hitting .293 with 11 homers down in AAA.

The Volquez issue is hardly the only one this club is dealing with. There's also the question of what to do with Aroldis Chapman, whom the Reds have decided would be better off working out his issues in AAA while recovering from shoulder inflammation. I was asked today if I thought the Chapman signing was a mistake. I'm not sure how I feel about it, honestly. Part of me says yes, simply because of what we have seen so far this year. Also, it's safe to say that Aroldis may never be a starter. The control issues are just too much. He walks three or four in an inning. You don't want to walk three or four in six innings as a starter. The closer role may be out of the question, too, because you don't want someone that wild trying to close out games. The other part of me, however, thinks it's far too early to make conjectures on Chapman. The kid has 26 1/3 innings in the big leagues. That's not enough. I would also like to think that the Reds' brass can help this kid smooth out his delivery, even if it means he can't throw 105 any more. Let's also not forget the kid is still undergoing a culture shock here in the United States. Give him some time to mature. Yes, Jocketty and Castellini spent a great deal of money on the lefty. I think this may have been about more than just the money, though. This was a signal to the fans and baseball that the Reds were committed to winning. It was also about taking a gamble on a once in a lifetime arm. And it was about energizing a fanbase and giving them something to hold on to. Before all of these issues, how many of us would love to walk into a bar somewhere else in the country and walk up to a pair of baseball fans talking about the game, and be able to say that Chapman pitches for OUR team? Yes, it was an extreme gamble. I'm okay with that. You don't hit on all of them. I like the fact that we finally have people that will gamble like Jocketty and Castellini will.

A final issue is Jonny Gomes, who is hitting a miserable .126 since April 16. Throw three straight sliders outside and Jonny will trot back to the dugout having swung at all three. It's brutal watching him right now, and if he ain't swinging a hot bat, he's of no help to this team. Gomes is a fantastic clubhouse guy and a fan favorite. But he can't play left field the same way that Heisey can. And right now he can't hit the way Heisey can. That makes Gomes expendable. I don't think he's done in Cincinnati, though. I'd imagine the Reds will send him to Louisville come Friday when the Reds need a pitcher. Either Mike Leake or Chad Reineke will come up, and one of them, or Sam LeCure, will make the start. I hope Gomes can turn it around, and I know that many other fans would love to see it too.

Getty Images/Joe Robbins
The Reds have fallen to 25-22 now, and are 2 1/2 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals, with the Milwaukee Brewers breathing down their neck. The Reds are not too far off from where they were last year, at 27-20. In fact, the pitching has actually been 5 runs better, and the offense 8 runs better, which means the run differential is up by 13. Those would seem to indicate the Reds have actually been a little better this year than last year. All of that aside, Cincinnati is a streaky team. There were several times last year when I believed the other shoe had dropped and the Reds were done. Remember when they started 7-11? Or when they were swept in Seattle, scoring just 1 run in 3 games? Or the 4 game sweep in Philadelphia? How about the fight and sweep at the hands of the Cardinals? Cincy rebounded each time. I think this team is extremely resilient, and will undoubtedly be tested in Philadelphia. As I type, Philly is already up 9-0 in game one against Bronson Arroyo. And with Cole Hamels on the mound, it is pretty much over. Toss in Wednesday and Thursday starts against Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, and Cincinnati could be in trouble. Let's not mention three games that are still left in Atlanta. But the story of this 2011 season hasn't been written yet. There's still 115 games to go. Like the Indians, let's wait this thing out. And don't forget to believe. The Reds' earned the right to have their fans believe in them last year. Don't forget about that. 

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