Reds Flirting with Mediocrity

The more and more I watch of this Cincinnati Reds' 2011 season, the more I don't want to watch. I see a team that looks like the 2008 or 2009 team. What happened to 2010? Where is the swagger that this team had? They brought the fight to the other team with good base running and outstanding defense. Essentially, they put a lot of pressure on the other team to make every play to beat them. This Reds team looks more and more like the teams of old with each passing day. A few weeks ago, Scott Rolen mentioned that the team wasn't playing crisp baseball like it had a year ago. Sunday was a prime example of that. It took them 3 hours and 50 minutes to play 9 innings. I can remember when they got 9 inning games in under 3 hours last year. So what happened?

AP Photo/Al Behrman

It starts, and mostly ends, with the pitching. The Reds lead the majors in walks surrendered and are second to last in homers given up. Bad combination. But you can live with having given up 70 homers if most of them are solo shots. You can't live with giving up nearly 4 walks a game. Play all the great defense you want, but that's killer right there. As a starting pitcher, that's probably an extra inning that is being given away, just due to walks. That's why we see so many Reds starters laboring just to get through five or six innings. And now it's being considered a good start if they get through six innings. Really? Alright, I'll give you Arroyo on Friday night, when he labored with control issues all night long, but made it through six. Gritty effort. Otherwise, Cincinnati needs more efforts like Cueto's on Saturday, when he went seven strong, and was under 100 pitches. He probably should have come back into the game for an 8th inning, but the bullpen has been so strong all year, I don't blame Dusty for going to them. Nonetheless, having a rotation that is averaging under six innings a game will kill this team in the end. It taxes the bullpen, which we saw the results of on Saturday. The normally reliable tandem of Masset, Bray, and Ondrusek coughed up a five run lead. Reds' relievers have worked the most innings in the majors. As reliable as that bullpen has been, by mid-August, they'll be shot, as will the Reds' postseason chances.

AP Photo/David Kohl

The issues with the pitching aren't Dusty's fault. Don't blame him. It's not his fault that four guys from the rotation that opened the year have ERA's of 6.35, 5.72, 5.37, and 5.03. The rotation stinks right now. There's nothing else to say. What is Walt Jocketty to do? Acquiring an ace doesn't solve much, because it doesn't help the other guys get over their issues. The only thing the Reds can do is wait out the problems. You have to hope that Edinson Volquez comes back tomorrow and has remembered how to throw strikes. And get out of the first innings without giving up a run. You have to hope Arroyo will be Arroyo and will find a way to win 15 games and give you 200 innings. And that Travis Wood will bounce back, looking more like the guy who was Cincinnati's best starter down the stretch last year. And that Homer Bailey can find a way to stay healthy. And that Aroldis Chapman can learn how to pitch. If they don't get some of those results, it doesn't matter if Cincinnati acquires Roy Halladay, they aren't going to win.

Now, before I get labeled as a Dusty Baker basher, I would like to preface all of this by saying that I completely believe Baker is the man to manage this team. That being said, this team looks a lot like the kind of team that many people have said that personifies Dusty. This has become a team that sits back and waits for the three run homer. How many times yesterday did it look like guys were up there swinging for the fences with men on base? Put the ball in play. Hit a line drive somewhere. Stop trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark. That's why I love Joey Votto. He's not a home run hitter. He's a classic line drive hitter with a ton of power. The home runs will come, but just getting base hits are more important. Put runners in motion, manufacture offense. Don't wait for the long ball. I feel like there is less and less of the first to third running that we saw last year. Right now this team doesn't have an identity. There's nothing to hang their hat on, and it's killing them. Some of that falls on the players, the rest on the manager. He needs to make things happen, starting with taking gambles on the base paths.

AP Photo/David Kohl

That's far from it, however. The lineup has to change. Dusty jump started the offense last year by slotting Brandon Phillips into the role of leadoff man. Try it again this year. And please, please get Drew Stubbs out of the top of the order. Yes, he looks good there sometimes, but those days are getting few and far between now. Drop him down lower in the lineup, just like last year. Also, why has Chris Heisey only started 15 of the first 60 games? Where is the patience that was shown to Stubbs and Bruce last year when they struggled? Run Heisey out there, and let's see if he can play every day in left. Even if he doesn't hit, he's a far better fielder than Gomes or Fred Lewis. And he can also run and bunt better than they can. They need his energy and athleticism in the lineup. Next, Ramon Hernandez has to bat more in the middle of the lineup. He is having a tremendous offensive season with a .320 average and 7 homers. Coincide that with a drop in the order for Scotty Rolen, who is really starting to look old. Lastly, Paul Janish needs to take a break and go to Louisville to learn how to hit. And Edgar Renteria needs to go on the disabled list if he is so sore. That means Cincinnati should call up Zack Cozart, who's hitting .294 with 5 homers and 20 RBI's for Louisville. He's almost as good as Janish with the glove, but far superior with the bat.

Here's my lineup:
1. 2B Brandon Phillips
2. LF Chris Heisey
3. 1B Joey Votto
4. RF Jay Bruce
5. C Ramon Hernandez
6. CF Drew Stubbs
7. 3B Scott Rolen
8. SS Zack Cozart

AP Photo/David Kohl

If Heisey fails, call up Yonder Alonso and give him a shot. He's hitting .324 with 7 homers and 34 batted in for the Bats. And when he's healthy, let spring training phenom Dave Sappelt have his chance. Also, let Devin Mesoraco come up and have his shot to split some time with Ramon behind the plate. That means trading Ryan Hanigan. Look, I like Hanigan as much as the next guy. He's got a decent bat, calls a good game, and is very good behind the plate. But he isn't hitting much right now, which means he's essentially the same player as Corky Miller. I think Mesoraco can at least match his production, especially since he's doing well in AAA right now. And with Yasmani Grandal in the minors, too, Cincinnati can afford to deal Hanigan. Several teams would love to have him, particularly with his very affordable 3 year $4 million deal. The San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays are teams that come to mind. Throw in Todd Frazier and the Reds could acquire a middle of the rotation pitcher that can help the club out right now. In my eyes, that's how you fix this offense. Adjust the lineup and the philosophy, while interjecting a little more youth. It worked last year. What do the Reds have to lose? As for the pitching, it will either work itself out, or it won't. Sitting at 30-30, it's looking more and more each day like it won't. Go 15-15 to start the season, and you're just trying to get your feet on the ground. Go 15-15 from there, and that's a trend. It's called mediocrity.