The Sad but True Tale

First and foremost, this will be a long post. My bad. I can't help it. So apologies in advance if you continue to scroll down and wonder when in the world the words will stop flowing. Once I get in a groove, I can't really stop. If you hang with me, and read it all. Thank you. If not, here's a preview, and you can click out of the blog once you read this paragraph. I can't stop being a fan, no matter how tough it is. The 2011 season is a blip on the radar, not the 2010 season, though there are some questions concerning 2012. The blame game: Walt or Dusty? Mainly Walt, because Dusty can't make the players hit in the clutch (though he could create a better batting order). We should have seen this season coming, especially with the probable declines of Rolen and Gomes. Good to see the kids up here, but this has become a lost season for the team and the players - one that has a ton of implications on a small market team. There's your preview of what I'm going to discuss, minus details of course. So if you can't stomach the following novel, I bid you adieu. However, for those of you who are technically inclined, I might request that you follow me on Twitter! Yes, I've dabbed into this social network, though I'm not really sure if I will use it much, or if I even like it yet. Follow me if you like @crisfreese.

If only we could turn the clock back...

Now then, to the good stuff. Did you know that Wednesday was the one year anniversary of the Brawl? Seems like almost forever ago, now, doesn't it? I still remember that game, vividly. By far one of the best games I've been to, despite the loss. As we all know, that was the defining moment of the Reds season. Yes, there were many moments from that season that were memorable, but none were as defining as that fight, the shot the Reds took on their home turf, and how they responded. Where was the defining moment this year? That's right, there wasn't one. Lots of fantastic moments, but not one that really let everyone know who the Reds are. Instead, Reds fans have watched as the team has bounced back and forth between wins and losses, with lots of frustration. The team has never gained any traction. At 10 games back, they are not going to catch the Milwaukee Brewers. And this is the toughest thing about watching baseball, and being a baseball fan. For the most part, it's going to take nearly four months for you to decide whether or not your team has a realistic shot of making the playoffs. At this time last year, we knew the Reds did. Now, we know they do not. And it sucks, trust me. If I could have stopped watching this team when they started their slide back in May, I would have. Now, I'm just watching to see some of the new faces, and if the Reds can climb back to .500. Feels like 2004 all over again. Or any other year in the 2000s. No matter how bad this season turns out, I'll be pumped for next year. It's like clockwork. I can't stop. The reward of seeing your team make the playoffs far outweighs all of those bad seasons. I'd do anything to see them in October again this year, even if it meant sitting through another Roy Halladay no hitter. Why? Because at least they have a shot then. You can't win it all until you make it to October. Once you're there, it's a free for all, and anyone can win it. So I'll sit through this wasted year, because I know the Reds have a shot at October next year. Survive the Big 162, and all you need is 11 more wins. So, 2011 sucks, but 2012 could be just as good as 2010. And I have to believe it will be. It's what keeps my love for this game going.

This year has been extremely disappointing. I know that. You know that. Bob Castellini knows that. But as poorly as 2011 turns out, don't toss away 2010. Appreciate that team, but know that it wasn't a fluke. A select few in 2010 were overachievers. That would be Jonny Gomes and Scott Rolen. I include Rolen merely because of his balky shoulder and back, and the surprise that he actually was able to hit last year. We all know that Gomes played over his head. But who else did? Was that a career year for Joey Votto? I don't know. He's still very, very good. But 37 homers? Will he do that again? Other than that, we've seen some guys improve (Cueto, Leake). Some guys stay pretty much the same (Bruce, Stubbs). And some fall of (Wood, Volquez). But for the most part, the Reds are the same as they were last year. What's the difference? Honestly it is Gomes, Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo. In the first half of last year, Rolen and Gomes combined for 28 homers and 117 RBIs. The first half of this year? 16 and 67. Big time drop off. Arroyo is 7-9 with a 5.48 ERA and 32 homers surrendered this year, while he was 17-10 with a 3.88 and 29 homers give up. His ERA is up 1.60. That's also a huge drop off. These guys were veterans on the team who were expected to put up similar numbers as last year. They have largely, and unequivocally, failed. Granted, all of the blame cannot be put on these players. The number one and two starters to start the year have spent as much time in the minors as the majors. Most of the guys the Reds expected to be better than last year haven't gotten better.

Was the Bruce extension the right move? Only time will tell
for Walt Jocketty.

But, we cannot toss just the players under the bus. I have a lot of questions concerning the management of this team. The Reds made critical mistakes in not finding a suitable backup to Scott Rolen. They stood pat in left field, with a guy that you had to presume would take a step back. I also believe they traded down when the essentially swapped Laynce Nix for Fred Lewis, and Edgar Renteria for Orlando Cabrera. They didn't consider finding a veteran starting pitcher. And no, I don't consider the Dontrelle Willis move in that category, because that was a gamble by the Reds. They didn't know he would be this good. And no matter how good he has been, they still could have used an extra arm. This is on Walt Jocketty, not Dusty Baker. The job of the general manager is to analyze the weaknesses and strengths of team, and make moves accordingly within the budget. I know Cincinnati's budget was tight, especially because they are a small market team. That doesn't mean there weren't smart moves to be had. For example, I look at the Milwaukee Brewers. They play in the smallest market in the league. Yet, their GM Doug Melvin managed to acquire a pair of starters who had started on Opening Day 2010. He upgraded the bullpen by acquiring a pair of former All Star closers. Granted, the farm system had to be unloaded to do so, but I still believe Walt could have done something, instead of nothing. I don't consider the "small market" tag to be an issue. The Brewers drew over 3 million fans in 2008, 2009, and will do so in 2011. The Reds have never drawn more than 2.6 million. Does this have to do with the roof over their ballpark? Maybe. However, their fans still have to come out on weekdays when they have school or work in the morning. And they show up. Why can't fans do that in Cincy? Yet, I digress. Walt was also slow on the trigger with in-season upgrades. Zack Cozart arrived months too late. Gomes was dumped far too late. Volquez and Wood were given too many chances. Walt's contract is up after this year. I'm torn between whether I want him back, or not. He's done a lot of good, but he hasn't been as aggressive as he's been in the past. His tenure in Cincinnati will be decided by how the Aroldis Chapman experiment turns out, and how Jay Bruce plays over the length of his contract. Quibble with Dusty's moves and decisions: his overuse of the bullpen, love of veterans who don't have a future on this team, and the untimely decisions with starters. But don't blame it all on him. Walt must should blame, too.

Speedster or slugger? Can't he just be both?

And now, the Reds have to be in the learning process of this season. They messed up this year, and can't afford to next year. It's time to figure some things out. And, unfortunately, we don't know a whole lot about the Reds. Is Chapman a closer or a starter? The Reds will experiment with him in the rotation next year. In order for his contract to be successful, I believe he has to be an ace. I'll settle for a closer, but nothing else. He can't be an average starter, or just a set up man. He has to have an impact on games. Right now, that impact isn't enough. No one knows who Drew Stubbs is. Not even Stubbs. Leadoff man, or bottom of the order? Just because you're fast doesn't mean you should leadoff. I like Drew, and I believe he may be the most talented player on the team. No way in the world you give up on him. I think he's better suited for hitting 6th or 7th. He seems to like it there, and he has said so. By necessity, the Reds hit him leadoff. Without a healthy Rolen, they had to put a table setter in Brandon Phillips into the cleanup spot. When the Reds were good last year, he was hitting leadoff. When they were good this year, he was hitting 2nd. He has to be in front of Votto, not behind him. That means Rolen has to be healthy. Can he be? Can he at least provide some protection for Joey? Without him, we know this team can't succeed, as I predicted back in March. It's one of the few times I wish I had been wrong. If Rolen can't hit cleanup, that means the Reds need to find a viable cleanup hitter. That may mean an offseason trade.

And who's the left fielder? Obviously not Alonso, who they've given up on after just 3 Major League games out there. Instead, they are giving Dave Sappelt a shot, who I clamored for back in November. I know he hasn't hit particularly well, but I still like what I see. He has a chance to be a legit player. Nonetheless, the Reds need left field to be filled by a big bat or a leadoff hitter. Whoever that guy is, your guess is as good as mine. We don't know who the closer is next year. Chapman? Hopefully he's in the rotation. Ondrusek? Maybe. Masset? Dear God. They can't afford Cordero, even on a reduced rate. That scares me. Hell, we don't even know the rotation. Cueto, Leake...and? Will Arroyo bounce back? How much money does Dontrelle want? Do they continue to pray about Edinson? Will Homer get his head screwed on straight? What about Wood? Suddenly that depth looks kinda questionable. We don't know if Mesoraco can hit up here, because the Reds haven't brought him up, and yet I would assume that Ramon won't be back next year. Hopefully that doesn't mean Hanigan will catch the majority of games. And do you know who Jay Bruce is? Is he an All Star, or Average Jay? He's still just 24, so there's time. But I think the Reds would have liked to see more progress out of him this season than they've gotten.

How much longer will we see the intense stare
of Joey Votto, just before he sends one over
the left field seats?

Lastly, and I won't go into this a whole lot, mainly because I'm saving it for another post, but what about Joey? He's owed $17 million in 2013. You think the Reds can afford that? And an extension for Brandon Phillips? One or both will be gone in two years. Book it. I'd rather let Brandon walk. You can't allot 10-15% of your payroll to a second baseman. Especially one that could be past his prime. Honestly, I don't know if you can give 15-20% of the payroll to Joey. That's a lot. How many games does Joey realistically impact for the team? Maybe 15-20? And I don't mean just driving in runs, I mean really being the winning difference. Play your cards right, and you can adjust to the loss of the Votto. Better pitching, more offense out of other positions, and an adequate replacement (Alonso). I love Votto. He's a tremendous player, one of the best I've watched play the game. He deserves a lot of money, but I don't think the Reds can afford him. Do you trade him? Let him walk after 2013? Yea, it sucks that he could leave. The Reds deserve to keep him. I hate watching star players leave town, especially when it's a small market. The Brewers deserve to keep Fielder, but probably can't. Baseball would be better if the homegrown stars stay at home. I still mark Votto down at 50/50 on being here long term, mainly because there are such few places he could go. But more on that in the future.

2011 has become a lost season. That's unacceptable for the Reds. They've got a window to be on top of this division for several years, and they missed out this year. Now, they may also have a window to compete while Joey is here. There goes one year. You've got two left, for now. It's not just a losing season for the Reds, it's one where they should have been good. They should have won. That's what hurts. It's not the losing. It's the fact that we all know they are better than this. In the 2000s, the Reds didn't have talent. They lost, but it didn't hurt. Now, they've got talent. And a year of it was wasted. For a small market team, that can't happen. They can't afford it.