The Eleventh Hour

Don't put all of the blame on Dusty.
The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

For the Reds, the trade deadline was as disappointing as the offseason. The difference? The Reds thought they would be good in 2011 during the offseason. The Reds knew they were not very good at the trade deadline. So they stood pat? When their season is on the brink, and not tilting in the right way? I don't agree with that move, and I didn't agree with the decision to hang back in the offseason, which is one of the reasons why I think much of this season's failure can be placed mainly on Jocketty and not Dusty. In the winter, the Reds essentially swapped Orlando Cabrera for Edgar Renteria. I didn't like that move, and even though O-Cab doesn't hit a whole lot, he brings a certain energy to the team that Edgar doesn't. They signed Fred Lewis, who is a middling player and a fourth outfielder on mediocre teams. If he is with the Yankees or Red Sox, he doesn't sniff the big leagues. Am I missing anything? Taking a flyer on Dontrelle was a good decision. As was not giving Arthur Rhodes the money he wanted (more on that later). But the Reds essentially declared to the baseball world that they were pleased with their team and believed they would improve. But Cincinnati is built on young players - players who don't have a back of a baseball card. You can't depend on them, because you don't know what you are depending on. This is where Cincinnati was burned, because they relied on these players to take a step forward, and for the veterans to continue to play at a high level. Scott Rolen looks like he did at the end of his run in St. Louis. Bronson Arroyo has lost 3-4 mph on his fastball. Jonny Gomes was jettisoned after a tough year. Those guys who were integral parts to last year have failed this year. That puts pressure on the kids. Who stepped up? Cueto and Leake have done that. Chapman is a wash because of the ups and downs, though he is trending upwards. Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, and Bailey haven't improved, but haven't gotten worse. Janish and Volquez...yea. The worst case scenario played out for Cincinnati. However, the talent is there. As maddening as this team has been, we've seen the potential. Stubbs' start. Bailey's occasionally dominant performances. Bruce's May. All of these guys have shown life. If Cincinnati wants any hope of making a run, they have to put it together.

No trade? Then let the kids (like Todd Frazier) play.
The Enquirer/Sam Greene

Of course, what could the Reds truly have done at the deadline? I wouldn't have minded seeing them move Ramon, and check the market on Dontrelle, CoCo, and Masset. All of those guys have some value, and could have brought back prospects, while opening up the door for young kids to come up. Particularly Devin Mesoraco and Travis Wood. Yes, this sounds like a fire sale, but it isn't really. Cincinnati hasn't played particularly well with these guys, so they probably won't do any worse without them. And maybe some youth could have energized the team. That would have meant platooning Yonder Alonso and Chris Heisey in left. Giving Mesoraco almost every start at catcher, and letting Todd Frazier play third the rest of the way. If these kids are the future, shouldn't we see if they can perform up here? On the other hand, I understand why Walt did nothing. He didn't want to break up a team that is basically the one that won the division last year. There's a boatload of promise for next year. And the only names that could have helped this team were James Shields and Hunter Pence. Michael Bourn would have been a nice piece, but I would never overpay for a leadoff hitter. Ubaldo Jiminez scares me because of his decline in velocity, and the fact that the Rockies put their best pitcher and his extremely affordable contract on the block. Ryan Ludwick is the kind of deal you make if you are a game back or up. He helps, but isn't a difference maker. The Reds needed difference makers. That was Tampa's Shields or Houston's Pence. Yet, Shields was never moved, and I wonder if he was truly out there. He would have been perfect for Cincinnati, because of his ace-ability in the AL East right now, and that Cincy could have controlled him for two more years. Pence could have slotted into the cleanup spot, and been here past this year. He went to Philly, since apparently they have the best farm system in the history of baseball and can acquire anyone they want...ugh. I would have pulled the trigger on a Shields/BJ Upton deal, sending Yasmani Grandal, Travis Wood, and Chris Heisey to Tampa. They get their catcher of the future, and two MLB ready players for right now.

Trade Joey? Never. No matter how good the deal is.
The Enquirer/Sam Greene

And here's something: were the Reds actually trying to pull off what would have been the deal of decade? A deal that would have shook the very foundations of this franchise? John Fay talks about how the Reds may have been working on a Joey Votto - Jose Bautista deal. The Reds would have included a prospect in this deal, probably a minor league pitcher named Daniel Corcino. Look, I know it sounds ridiculous, but I've actually toyed with the idea of a Joey Votto trade in my head for sometime. This is one of the few deals that makes sense for both sides and players. Cincinnati gets a left fielder under control through 2015 with an option for 2016. The most he would make in that deal would have been $14 million, which is $3 million less than Votto will make in two years. In this small market, that makes Bautista more affordable than Votto. It also opens a spot for the Reds' best prospect, and potentially one of their best hitters, Yonder Alonso to take over at first base. That would give the Reds a solid middle of the order with Alonso-Bautista-Bruce. And Jose would be the big right handed bat they've been missing. It also gives the slugger a chance to win right away. For Toronto, they get the hometown hero that would draw big crowds. He would probably sign a long term deal and finish his career there. Joey probably gets out of the spotlight, though that is not a guarantee, considering the media would constantly be all over him there. The deal makes sense. Would I do it? Never in a million years. The reaction in Cincinnati would be horrific. Too many fans would be lost. Plus, what if Bautista is a fluke? Then you mortgage your franchise. I mean if it were as simple as fixing your swing, I'm sure there would be many a player that would be all ears. Not convinced that Bautista is doing this on pure talent. Back to the issue at hand. There's probably just a 50/50 shot that Votto stays here long term anyway. But, if you trade one of the best players in baseball, you cannot be taking a calculated gamble. It HAS to work. A generation of fans depends on it. At the end of the day, though, this was just speculation and rumors. If you can even call it that. Probably little traction and meaning to this. Joey Votto is a Red. That's all that matters.

And so, this is where I say that Walt probably made the right move to not buy at the deadline. Sometimes the best trades you make are the ones you don't. In January of 2008, Cincinnati considered acquiring then Baltimore ace Erik Bedard. It would have given them a then strong top of the rotation of Harang, Arroyo, and Bedard. Little did they know that Harang would begin to tank that season, and would never recover with the Reds. Nonetheless, I wanted them to make the move. I thought the window of opportunity to win was closing with Junior. I wanted him to have a chance. Cincinnati did not make the move. Bedard was traded to Seattle for their entire farm system (not really, but you get my point). We would find out that Baltimore's asking price was then prospects Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto. Damn. Good thing I wasn't the GM, right?

If it came down to standing pat versus buying and risking a bum deal, like in 2006, what would you have done? I've seen a lot of bad things with this team, but I will never understand the 8 player deal with Washington. They traded away two good offensive players for that team in Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. And they got an aging shortstop, a reliever with a bad shoulder, infielder Brendan Harris (not with team), Bill Bray, and Daryl Thompson. (Of course I know the other two players names, but the pain of typing their names is far too much for me to bare.) I'll take what we've got and stick to it, thank you very much. Like I said, only Pence or Shields could have improved this team enough.

Sums up the season, don't it? Good, but not good
enough.
Associated Press/Pat Sullivan

It's starting to get awfully late in this season, now. Cincinnati will be 6 1/2 or 7 1/2 games back depending on how the Milwaukee-St. Louis game turns out tonight. That's a mighty deficit to recover from. Granted, a 19-8 August in last year allowed the Reds to gain exactly 7 1/2 games on St. Louis. So though I believe the Reds season is dying, I do think there is a chance to come back. The Brewers are streaking right now, mainly because they have played at home against the moribund Astros and Cubs. Things even out. Is it enough to catch the Brewers? And two other teams? I give the Reds a 20% chance at coming back. That's being generous. But I've seen enough good stuff from this team to believe. And enough bad stuff to hang my head. This far into the season, the Reds are what they are. A flip of the coin. Swept by the Mets. Sweep the Giants. Lose to the Astros. Go figure. Tonight was a good bounce back for Homer Bailey and the Reds. Tomorrow is a crucial game. A must win, with Dontrelle going. You can't lose again to the Double-A Astros. And then you have to consider that a sweep may be a near must in Chicago. We'll see. The Reds have a weak August left to play. They need another 19-8 month to have the slightest of pulses, which means winning series 2 out of 3, mixed in with several sweeps. Don't worry about the Brewers, just get some W's. At the end of the month, check out the board. If you're within 4, then we can start talking.

One more quick note, the Rangers designated Arthur Rhodes and his 4.81 ERA for assignment. Tough for King Arthur. Ton of respect for the man - the definition of a class act. But he didn't have it this year, and the Reds saw that in the second half of last year. Nonetheless, he was brilliant for Cincinnati for two seasons. He was as lockdown as it gets. And his first half last season was one of the greatest runs by a reliever I've ever seen. I wish it would have ended better for the lefty, but when it goes, it does so in a hurry. Good luck and the best of wishes to Rhodes. And thanks for the time in Cincinnati. It was a pleasure watching a true professional and a master at his craft.

I know this has been a long post. I actually have a ton more to say. Like the sudden failures of Logan Ondrusek. The resurgence of Aroldis Chapman. The rotation. The health of Scott Rolen, who should probably be placed on the DL for the remainder of the season. He needs to get healthy for next year. The collapsing Pittsburgh Pirates. The bungling Cardinals. Speaking of St. Louis, check this out. Unbelievable. Will the whining ever stop? I hate that team. And my hate is reserved for very few things in life. The Cards and Steelers have earned that hatred, though.

Lastly, Johnny Cueto. The man is an ace. His head finally caught up to his arm and his stuff. It's what the Reds hope Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez can do. Bailey is close, but doesn't have that mental set to compete when he doesn't have his good stuff. Volquez...he's not very close. But, Johnny, Johnny, Johnny. Boy can he pitch. Can't wait to watch him for years. He will be the first Red to win a Cy Young. Book it.