Penny for your Thoughts, Mr. Votto

What does Joey want to do?

That's the answer to all of these questions that are swirling on twitter, talk radio, the internet, etc. Will Joey Votto be a Red beyond 2013? Will he even be a Red by then? Or next year? Will he move to left field? Will he re-sign with Cincinnati? Would he accept a contract extension?

Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel

I have previously stated that there is a 50/50 shot that Joey will be a Red, long term. I still stand by that. But, with each passing day, I begin to believe he won't be around. Things don't point in the Reds' favor. Joey said he didn't want to and couldn't think about a long term deal last offseason, and agreed to a three year deal, because he could see himself being here the next three years. We all know that when this contract is up, he will be eligible to test the free agent waters. And he will cost a king's ransom. And he deserves it. Let me sum up what Votto had previously said - essentially, a team controls you for so long at their cost, and then you get to leverage your numbers against the team to get exactly what you want. I don't think Votto is going to ask for a record contract, but he's not going to take a hometown discount. He talked about how Cincinnati is not his home, and how even Toronto is not his home. Florida is. I don't think that means he's going to play for the Florida Marlins. I do think it means Joey will not close a single door.

Votto is as smart and thoughtful a player as I've seen. This will not be an easy decision for him, nor will he rush the decision. I think that means Votto will not sign an extension, simply because it never gives him the chance to explore all of his options. If there is a better deal to be had after 2013 than the one Cincinnati offers, Votto will take it and run. By better deal, I don't think that means more money. If the Toronto Blue Jays do not match Cincy's offer, but come just under it, Joey will sign there. Yes, money is a factor. Votto wants to be paid. If you were at the top of your profession, wouldn't you want to be paid handsomely? That doesn't make him, or anyone else, greedy. It's sensibility. It's also about opportunity, though. I think chance to win in a market that Votto wants to play in is important. Cincinnati, then, is still a possibility. A team like Houston, is obviously not.

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

If Votto will most probably not sign a contract extension, can Cincinnati afford him? It would be foolish to assume Votto will receive anything less than $20 million. And that's on the low end. I don't know how much he'll sign for, or how many years. If I had to guess, I'd say his contract will be close to 6 years and $145 million. That's a lot of money for the Reds to give to Joey. Even if they can sign him for $20 million a season, can the Reds' payroll take that hit? It surely means that Johnny Cueto will not receive an extension beyond his current deal. And that Brandon Phillips will not be a Red. It complicates everything. The Reds' current payroll is a little over $76 million. Let's just say their payroll over the next few years will consistently be in the $80 million range, give or take a few million. One quarter of that goes to Votto. One quarter. The Reds would lose more than they would win over the course of his contract, then. It puts tremendous pressure on the ability to draft and develop exceptionally well. Do you think Cincinnati could bump their payroll to the St. Louis range? Around $100 million? Since 1998, the Cardinals have had an average game attendance under 36,000 just once - in 2003. In that time span, it's the only time they've been under 3 million in attendance for the season, and that was only by some 90,000 fans. Cincinnati hasn't averaged over 30,000 fans per game in a season since 1994, and they did it the year before that, too. Before that, Cincy hasn't averaged over 30,000 since 1978. In the last 33 years, the Reds have averaged 30,000+ fans per game just 3 times. Their highest season attendance in a season 2,629,708 in 1976. They've never drawn more than 3 million fans in a season. And to do that, it would take a little under an average of 37,500 fans per game. To get to the kind of payroll that St. Louis has, that is what it would take attendance-wise. You think the Reds can pull that off?

I want to sign Joey Votto as much as the next Reds fan. But I am also realistic. Votto has value to this team, but not at $20+ million. That's a damn shame, too. Ten years ago, before contracts became ridiculous, the Reds could probably afford him. Not now. How much does it suck that a team can't keep their best player? What if the Oklahoma City Thunder couldn't afford Kevin Durant? Don't you think that would be terrible for the NBA? Votto leaving Cincinnati is terrible for baseball. It's terrible if Pujols leaves St. Louis. And Fielder, Milwaukee. That's the game.

AP Photo

Here's what it comes down to. Looking at the numbers, the Reds can sign Votto. But it leaves little room for error. Realistically, the Reds shouldn't sign Joey past 2013. The exorbitant amount of money he will command is beyond what this team can afford. That means the Reds must maximize Votto's value, starting in the offseason. He will not move to left field, probably because he doesn't want to, but more likely because he shouldn't have to. Alonso is unproven in first, and may not be any better there than he is in left. Votto has become very good at first, and no one knows how he would do in left. You don't swap a question mark for a proven commodity, and then place the commodity in a compromising position. Even considering this could affect the way Votto looks at the Reds. If you thought you might be replaced at your job, don't you think you would be thinking about getting out? This means one thing: trade Yonder Alonso. This is how you maximize Votto's value. The Reds need to find a top of the line starter to match with Cueto and the solid Leake. That means dumping Homer or Wood. Fine. They also need to find a cleanup hitter and commit to Brandon Phillips at leadoff. The hitter would preferably play left field. No one knows if Scott Rolen will be healthy enough to be an impact player next year. Either way, he's probably better suited to hit 6th or 7th, with Stubbs alongside him. Cozart would hit in the two hole. This is how you maximize Votto's value. You solidify the lineup and the team. You do what Milwaukee did this year. Go for broke. You've got two years left with the best player your farm system has produced since Barry Larkin. Making the most of them is critical, which means the Reds must fix their weaknesses.

That is the task Walt Jocketty, or whoever the general manager is in 2012, is assigned with. Solidify the team around Votto, and give this team a shot to win it all in the next two years. If you are not willing to do that, or cannot afford it, then you have to trade Votto. Not before 2013, but before this offseason. You cannot waste a year fooling the fans. Plus, trading Votto with two years left would provide a larger return than if he had just one year. It's a gamble, for sure. But sometimes that is your only choice. Personally, I think the Reds will go for broke. I think Alonso will be traded. I think the Reds will do everything they can to win the division in 2012 and 2013, then let Votto walk. That's how I see this playing out.

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

Lastly, I'm sure you are wondering why I still give Votto a 50/50 shot at staying in Cincinnati. One, I think the Reds could be dumb enough to give him an organizational crippling contract. Two, I think you have to look at the opportunities. Let's eliminate the teams Votto would go to, based solely on having good first basemans: Boston, New York, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and St. Louis (I assume Pujols will stay). Next I will eliminate teams because of their market and money issues: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, Florida, Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, San Diego, and Los Angeles. Finally, those teams whose markets are large enough that they would probably scare Votto away: Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago. That leaves Baltimore, Toronto, Texas, Washington, Cincinnati, Arizona, Colorado, and San Francisco. In all reality, Baltimore, Washington, and Arizona are probably not going to be in the race. They have young players of their own, and probably could not afford Votto. Texas is most likely in the same boat. And with the Tulowitzki contract and Carlos Gonzalez's immense talent, Colorado probably cannot afford him. That leaves Toronto, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. Obviously, Toronto is his hometown, and Cincinnati is where he plays now. I think these are the most logical places for him to go. However, I think San Francisco is a wild card. They're built to win better than Cincinnati or Toronto. They can afford him and their pitching. Payroll isn't as much of an issue, and they can move some pieces around. Votto could live a low key life there. It makes sense.

Penny for your thoughts, Mr. Votto.