Missed Opportunities

It was a series and a homestand of missed opportunities, in what is quickly becoming a season of missed opportunities. They left 8 on base in the second game against the Brewers and missed numerous opportunities to knock out Zack Greinke early in the game. The result was a 7-2 loss. The normally reliable bullpen blew up in the 8th inning on Saturday against the Dodgers, and the Reds missed a chance to win it late, taking an 11-8 loss in 11 innings, and wasting a tremendous performance by Johnny Cueto. On Sunday, they stranded 13, including loading the bases with nobody out in the 9th inning, and managing just a single run out of it in a 9-6 loss. Then, despite blasting the Cubbies in back to back games, Cincinnati was stifled by Ryan Dempster and his near six ERA in a 4-1 loss. They loaded the bases with one out in the first inning, and never scored. The loss meant Cincinnati went 5-4 on the 9 game homestand. In my eyes, that is a severe disappointment, mainly because they went 3-3 against two bad teams in Chicago and LA. Had they won yesterday, a 6-3 record would have been acceptable. But it didn't happen.

Dark days could be ahead for Dusty's Reds. //AP Photo/David Kohl  

Now, the honeymoon with this team is over. At 32-31, the Reds aren't much better than average. And the next 29 games before the break are brutal. It includes 4 in San Fran, 3 in LA, 12 against the AL East (including the Yankees and Rays), 3 against Cleveland, and a total of 7 against the Cardinals and Brewers to end the 1st half. It's go time for the Reds. Either they take a stand now and play well, or the season will be over before the All Star Break. Listen, I'm not about to give up on this season, and neither should you. But the Reds have not played particularly well thus far this year. But, they still have 16 games left against the two teams ahead of them, and 25 more against the rest of the hapless central division. Considering they are 24-14 within their own division, that should bode well for the Reds, even though they are a terrible 8-17 outside of it. They've won those first 38 games at a 63% clip. If they do that for their last 41 games in the division, they will get about 26 wins out of those games. This of course is considering that they continue to play well against the Cardinals and Brewers. However, those 26 wins could be closer to 29 or 30, if they beat up on the Pirates, which they haven't thus far this year. Let's assume they can get to 29 wins there, and go a blistering 53-26 within the Central, overall - and would have 61 wins, with the extra 8 they have now. That's a record of 61-43. That leaves 58 other games to be played, for the rest of the season. Play .500 in those games, and the Reds would come out to be 90-72. That will be close to getting them a playoff spot. So, from here on out it is fairly simple for Cincinnati. Beat St. Louis. Beat Milwaukee. Beat everyone else in your division, and just play .500 ball against everyone else.

As stated previously, it starts with getting the pitching right. Then you have to convince Dusty to stop messing with the lineup, and to just run out Heisey every day in left. No one said this season was going to be easy. Defending a division championship never is. The Reds are finding out that the hard way. They are still a talented team, and I don't think the Brewers or Cardinals will pull away from them. But the Reds don't want to give them that opportunity. It's time to start putting a winning streak together. This brutal 29 game stretch starts tonight in San Francisco against the defending World Champions, with Johnny Cueto vs. Madison Bumgarner. Let's hope this is a statement series.