Bombers, Jays Get the Best of the Reds

I'm at a loss for words in trying to figure this team out. One week, I talk about how the Reds have seemingly turned the corner, and the following week I have to find positives as Cincinnati flounders. When the offense clicks, the pitching stinks. And when the pitching is dominant, the offense is dormant. Outside of very small glimpses, the Reds have yet to put together stretches where they have played complete games. Without a doubt, there is a positive and negative aspect to that. From a negative point of view, we're 76 games into the season and the Reds haven't played all that well - maybe they're just not that good this year. Last year was an unbelievable run, and they look like a team that is expecting for everything to just click, like it did last year. Perhaps that won't happen. The Reds won a ton of dramatic games last year, but have failed in similar situations this year. Statistics are nice in measuring the success of a team, but I also believe in what my eyes tell me. And I don't see the same spark this year. They look like a team going through the motions, expecting for it all just to come together. Maybe it will, maybe it won't. From a positive point of view, you have to believe Cincinnati will put it all together. They're too talented. We've seen what they can do, last year, as well as how dominant they've looked in the sweep of St. Louis and their games against Milwaukee. This is just them riding the wave, waiting out the storm. It all HAS to come together eventually, right?

The ups and downs of this team are frustrating.
The Enquirer/Gary Landers

The ups and downs of this team are maddeningly far apart. When this offense clicks, they can absolutely dominate. When they stink, though, they are brutal. Take this homestand, for example. The Reds managed a measly 4 runs against the Toronto Blue Jays. Rolen hit a solo shot in the opener, and Stubbs was gifted an inside the parker because Bautista and Patterson failed to communicate. They were shut out in the second game, and won the finale on a two run shot by Miguel Cairo. That was it. Cincinnati was shut down by Jo Jo Reyes, Brandon Morrow, and Carlos Villanueva. Not exactly household names. Reyes and Villanueva are castoffs of the Braves and Brewers, while Morrow has excellent stuff, yet came into the game with an ERA well over 5. All three were at the top of their games. Then came dominant performances by Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia of the New York Yankees. Nova is a rookie, who was spectacular over 8 innings, surrendering just a run off of a double play ball in the first inning. Garcia gave up just 2 unearned runs in 7 innings. Cincinnati managed 5 runs in the first two games against the Yankees. One on a double play. One on an infield hit. Another on a fielder's choice. And the last two after an error. Not exactly knocking the cover off the ball.

Cueto was nails on Wednesday.
The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

Then came the night cap of a doubleheader against New York, when Chris Heisey and the Reds blasted Brian Gordon and the Bombers for 10 runs and 4 homers. Heisey, as you know, blasted three of them. Gomes hit the other, and Scott Rolen came off the bench to drive in two runs on a pair of hits. The offense clicked for a game without Votto or Bruce doing much, which is crucial, considering they are both slumping right now. Then again, this offensive performance came against a guy who was making his second career start after making the transition from an outfielder to a pitcher. Not exactly a top of the rotation starter. Nonetheless, it was a rare night where everything clicked. As nice as Heisey's performance was, and, trust me, it will get the "Free Chris Heisey" supporters clamoring for him in left field, Johnny Cueto was the star of the game. He was at the top of his game last night, surrendering one run on two hits over 7 dominant innings against an elite offense. Watching him work out of the bases loaded jam in the 7th, while approaching the 100 pitch mark was a thing of beauty. The old Cueto may have caved and surrendered a few runs. Not this new guy, though. He has become the ace of the staff, and though he has too few innings to qualify, he leads the NL in ERA at 1.63. Every time it looks like Cueto has pitched his best start, he goes out the next time and tops it. Unbelievable.

Until Wood can be consistent, he belongs at AAA.
The Enquirer/Gary Landers

Now, for some general things to get out there before I get to the big story. Travis Wood was shipped out to Louisville after a horrific first inning against the Yankees put a black mark on what was a decent 7 innings. Sam LeCure was recalled to slot back into the bullpen, and Homer Bailey will return to pitch against Baltimore on Sunday. He was 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in 5 starts before injuring himself swinging a bat in Philadelphia. Hopefully he can return to the majors and make an impact in the rotation, which has continued to be solid. Mike Leake was terrific up until a 7th inning hiccup against Toronto, and wasn't too bad against the Yankees in 6 innings. Bronson Arroyo was dominant, and Edinson Volquez experienced his normal difficulties, though he has gotten better of late. If Wood gets everything worked out, though, he'll probably take Edinson's spot sooner than later. Zack Cozart, meanwhile, could be up in the majors soon. That would probably mean designating Edgar Renteria for assignment to make room. I'm not sure what is taking this so long. Cozart is very good defensively and he can hit, too. Perhaps most importantly, though, is that he has some pop in his bat. Cincinnati can use that. There are 8 team position groups in the National League that do not have a home run this season. Seven of them are pitchers for other teams. The other is Cincinnati Reds' shortstops. That is pathetic.

This scene was a numbing one for Cardinals fans.
Post-Dispatch/Chris Lee

Finally, Albert Pujols. As I'm sure you know, he sustained a broken forearm on this play, and is out for 4-6 weeks. Considering the inability of the Brewers or Reds to pull away from St. Louis, and vice versa, I doubt anyone is going to run away, even with Albert gone for a month or more. My question focuses more on Albert when he returns. Will he still have his power? These kind of injuries are always risky, and many a player is never the same when the return. I think Albert will be fine, though. And I truly hope he is ok. I may not be his biggest fan, but Albert is a great man, and a tremendous player. I will not argue that. And the game is better with him in it. However, if the Cardinals fall out of the race, it won't be from the loss of Albert - their offense was on the downswing anyway. Instead, it will be their pitching, which has been horrid since the first month and a half. Jake Westbrook and Chris Carpenter have never gotten it going. Kyle Lohse has begun to come back down to earth. And Kyle McClellan and Jaime Garcia cannot be trusted to provide a lot of innings over the rest of the season. Both can be inconsistent, and do not have the strength to do so. McClellan is a converted reliever in his fist year as a starter, and Garcia ran out of gas last season. This, combined with a terrible bullpen, will hold them down the rest of the season. A 9 run 8th against the Cardinals on Monday night typified the disaster that their bullpen has become, with several retreads and nobodies trying to keep their team in games. Will the loss of Albert affect the Cardinals? Undoubtedly. But it will not be the thing that holds them back in the division.

West Coast, Pitching Rejuvenate Redlegs

Jonny Gomes lays out for one of the best catches of the year.
AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill

What was once the most dreaded part of the season for the Reds has become less and less of a factor over the past two years. Cincinnati went 7-8 on the West Coast last year, including a 6-3 swing in August (Arizona is included in that trip, even though I didn't consider them part of the total on the Coast). And they are 7-3 out there this year. This includes a 5-1 mark in Dodger Stadium over the past two years, which is remarkable considering it was once a house of horrors for the Reds. They had lost 12 in a row out there until last year, but swept the Dodgers there just this past week. That, along with a 4 game split in San Fran against the defending champs, produced a satisfying 5-2 road trip that has brought the Reds to within 2 games of the front running Milwaukee Brewers and a game back of the hated St. Louis Cardinals in the Central. Even after the loss last night, nothing changed, with LaRussa's Cards in a free fall having lost 7 in a row, and the Brewers slumping having lost 4 of 5, including 3 to the Chicago Flubs. If the Reds pitching can keep up their roll, they could get through this murderous stretch of games and overtake both team come the break.

Mike Leake has been on a roll of late.
The Enquirer/Joseph Fuqua II

Now, with Homer Bailey set to return from the disabled list within a week, the Reds face the problem they believed they had back in spring training: too many starters and not enough spots. At one point, with the starting staff's ERA over 5, it looked like the Reds overestimated the depth of their pitching. Not any more. One would assume that Homer Bailey would be put back into the rotation, considering he pitched so well when he came back from injury the first time. But who goes? Mike Leake has been brilliant in June, producing a 2.48 ERA, and a pair of 8 inning starts. He's thrown 5 straight quality starts since returning from the minors. Travis Wood went 8 strong against the Giants, and got a win in LA with 6 good innings. But, he is fairly inconsistent, and could be a candidate to be shipped out. Even Volquez has seemingly figured it out, giving up just 3 runs in 13 innings since returning from AAA. We will see how he does tonight against Toronto. Arroyo obviously won't go anywhere, and he has a 3.60 ERA in his last three starts, going at least 6 innings every time, and 7 2/3 the last time out. Meanwhile, Johnny Cueto has emerged as the ace of the rotation, especially after logging 14 innings without giving up an earned run on the Coast against the Giants and Dodgers. He's 4-2 with a 1.68 ERA on the year.

Can the Reds' wealth of arms lead them back to the playoffs?
The Enquirer//Amanda Davidson

While the pitching does look fantastic once again, it cannot be discounted that much of the success has been against the likes of the Cubs, Giants, and Dodgers, none of which are known for their offensive prowess. How will they handle the Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Indians, Cardinals, and Brewers over this next stretch? That will be a preview for the second half. I like what I see, though. Pitching lifted the Reds last year, and it has to do the same this year. Good pitching wins games, bad pitching loses games. Ask the St. Louis Cardinals. They're the poster child for that. After a hot start to the year, their pitching has cooled off, and so has the team. They've gone from near the top in starter's ERA, to middle of the pack, and no longer look quite as formidable. The Central will be decided by the staffs of the Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers. The offenses of those three are a wash. St. Louis and Milwaukee might have a little advantage in their rotations, but does the Reds defense make up for that? We'll find out soon enough.

This is a good article on Brandon Phillips. For all the garbage he gets from St. Louis Cardinals fans, he is a terrific guy. However, what the heck did he mean by this: "It's going to be hard to keep me here. I'm not trying to break the bank. I'm just trying to be fair. I don't want Jayson Werth money or C.C. Sabathia money." .....okay. I just felt like it was a random comment from Brandon. He has always said he wants to finish his career in Cincinnati. I would assume Jocketty and Castellini would like that too. Hopefully they get something done.

Lastly, read this to find out how Jose Bautista could have been a Cincinnati Red. Man, that hurts to know that Lindner/Schott/the Reds messed that up. Granted it took him forever to figure it out, but how sweet would it be to have that guy in a Reds' uniform?

Missed Opportunities

It was a series and a homestand of missed opportunities, in what is quickly becoming a season of missed opportunities. They left 8 on base in the second game against the Brewers and missed numerous opportunities to knock out Zack Greinke early in the game. The result was a 7-2 loss. The normally reliable bullpen blew up in the 8th inning on Saturday against the Dodgers, and the Reds missed a chance to win it late, taking an 11-8 loss in 11 innings, and wasting a tremendous performance by Johnny Cueto. On Sunday, they stranded 13, including loading the bases with nobody out in the 9th inning, and managing just a single run out of it in a 9-6 loss. Then, despite blasting the Cubbies in back to back games, Cincinnati was stifled by Ryan Dempster and his near six ERA in a 4-1 loss. They loaded the bases with one out in the first inning, and never scored. The loss meant Cincinnati went 5-4 on the 9 game homestand. In my eyes, that is a severe disappointment, mainly because they went 3-3 against two bad teams in Chicago and LA. Had they won yesterday, a 6-3 record would have been acceptable. But it didn't happen.

Dark days could be ahead for Dusty's Reds. //AP Photo/David Kohl  

Now, the honeymoon with this team is over. At 32-31, the Reds aren't much better than average. And the next 29 games before the break are brutal. It includes 4 in San Fran, 3 in LA, 12 against the AL East (including the Yankees and Rays), 3 against Cleveland, and a total of 7 against the Cardinals and Brewers to end the 1st half. It's go time for the Reds. Either they take a stand now and play well, or the season will be over before the All Star Break. Listen, I'm not about to give up on this season, and neither should you. But the Reds have not played particularly well thus far this year. But, they still have 16 games left against the two teams ahead of them, and 25 more against the rest of the hapless central division. Considering they are 24-14 within their own division, that should bode well for the Reds, even though they are a terrible 8-17 outside of it. They've won those first 38 games at a 63% clip. If they do that for their last 41 games in the division, they will get about 26 wins out of those games. This of course is considering that they continue to play well against the Cardinals and Brewers. However, those 26 wins could be closer to 29 or 30, if they beat up on the Pirates, which they haven't thus far this year. Let's assume they can get to 29 wins there, and go a blistering 53-26 within the Central, overall - and would have 61 wins, with the extra 8 they have now. That's a record of 61-43. That leaves 58 other games to be played, for the rest of the season. Play .500 in those games, and the Reds would come out to be 90-72. That will be close to getting them a playoff spot. So, from here on out it is fairly simple for Cincinnati. Beat St. Louis. Beat Milwaukee. Beat everyone else in your division, and just play .500 ball against everyone else.

As stated previously, it starts with getting the pitching right. Then you have to convince Dusty to stop messing with the lineup, and to just run out Heisey every day in left. No one said this season was going to be easy. Defending a division championship never is. The Reds are finding out that the hard way. They are still a talented team, and I don't think the Brewers or Cardinals will pull away from them. But the Reds don't want to give them that opportunity. It's time to start putting a winning streak together. This brutal 29 game stretch starts tonight in San Francisco against the defending World Champions, with Johnny Cueto vs. Madison Bumgarner. Let's hope this is a statement series.

Reds Flirting with Mediocrity

The more and more I watch of this Cincinnati Reds' 2011 season, the more I don't want to watch. I see a team that looks like the 2008 or 2009 team. What happened to 2010? Where is the swagger that this team had? They brought the fight to the other team with good base running and outstanding defense. Essentially, they put a lot of pressure on the other team to make every play to beat them. This Reds team looks more and more like the teams of old with each passing day. A few weeks ago, Scott Rolen mentioned that the team wasn't playing crisp baseball like it had a year ago. Sunday was a prime example of that. It took them 3 hours and 50 minutes to play 9 innings. I can remember when they got 9 inning games in under 3 hours last year. So what happened?

AP Photo/Al Behrman

It starts, and mostly ends, with the pitching. The Reds lead the majors in walks surrendered and are second to last in homers given up. Bad combination. But you can live with having given up 70 homers if most of them are solo shots. You can't live with giving up nearly 4 walks a game. Play all the great defense you want, but that's killer right there. As a starting pitcher, that's probably an extra inning that is being given away, just due to walks. That's why we see so many Reds starters laboring just to get through five or six innings. And now it's being considered a good start if they get through six innings. Really? Alright, I'll give you Arroyo on Friday night, when he labored with control issues all night long, but made it through six. Gritty effort. Otherwise, Cincinnati needs more efforts like Cueto's on Saturday, when he went seven strong, and was under 100 pitches. He probably should have come back into the game for an 8th inning, but the bullpen has been so strong all year, I don't blame Dusty for going to them. Nonetheless, having a rotation that is averaging under six innings a game will kill this team in the end. It taxes the bullpen, which we saw the results of on Saturday. The normally reliable tandem of Masset, Bray, and Ondrusek coughed up a five run lead. Reds' relievers have worked the most innings in the majors. As reliable as that bullpen has been, by mid-August, they'll be shot, as will the Reds' postseason chances.

AP Photo/David Kohl

The issues with the pitching aren't Dusty's fault. Don't blame him. It's not his fault that four guys from the rotation that opened the year have ERA's of 6.35, 5.72, 5.37, and 5.03. The rotation stinks right now. There's nothing else to say. What is Walt Jocketty to do? Acquiring an ace doesn't solve much, because it doesn't help the other guys get over their issues. The only thing the Reds can do is wait out the problems. You have to hope that Edinson Volquez comes back tomorrow and has remembered how to throw strikes. And get out of the first innings without giving up a run. You have to hope Arroyo will be Arroyo and will find a way to win 15 games and give you 200 innings. And that Travis Wood will bounce back, looking more like the guy who was Cincinnati's best starter down the stretch last year. And that Homer Bailey can find a way to stay healthy. And that Aroldis Chapman can learn how to pitch. If they don't get some of those results, it doesn't matter if Cincinnati acquires Roy Halladay, they aren't going to win.

Now, before I get labeled as a Dusty Baker basher, I would like to preface all of this by saying that I completely believe Baker is the man to manage this team. That being said, this team looks a lot like the kind of team that many people have said that personifies Dusty. This has become a team that sits back and waits for the three run homer. How many times yesterday did it look like guys were up there swinging for the fences with men on base? Put the ball in play. Hit a line drive somewhere. Stop trying to hit the ball out of the ballpark. That's why I love Joey Votto. He's not a home run hitter. He's a classic line drive hitter with a ton of power. The home runs will come, but just getting base hits are more important. Put runners in motion, manufacture offense. Don't wait for the long ball. I feel like there is less and less of the first to third running that we saw last year. Right now this team doesn't have an identity. There's nothing to hang their hat on, and it's killing them. Some of that falls on the players, the rest on the manager. He needs to make things happen, starting with taking gambles on the base paths.

AP Photo/David Kohl

That's far from it, however. The lineup has to change. Dusty jump started the offense last year by slotting Brandon Phillips into the role of leadoff man. Try it again this year. And please, please get Drew Stubbs out of the top of the order. Yes, he looks good there sometimes, but those days are getting few and far between now. Drop him down lower in the lineup, just like last year. Also, why has Chris Heisey only started 15 of the first 60 games? Where is the patience that was shown to Stubbs and Bruce last year when they struggled? Run Heisey out there, and let's see if he can play every day in left. Even if he doesn't hit, he's a far better fielder than Gomes or Fred Lewis. And he can also run and bunt better than they can. They need his energy and athleticism in the lineup. Next, Ramon Hernandez has to bat more in the middle of the lineup. He is having a tremendous offensive season with a .320 average and 7 homers. Coincide that with a drop in the order for Scotty Rolen, who is really starting to look old. Lastly, Paul Janish needs to take a break and go to Louisville to learn how to hit. And Edgar Renteria needs to go on the disabled list if he is so sore. That means Cincinnati should call up Zack Cozart, who's hitting .294 with 5 homers and 20 RBI's for Louisville. He's almost as good as Janish with the glove, but far superior with the bat.

Here's my lineup:
1. 2B Brandon Phillips
2. LF Chris Heisey
3. 1B Joey Votto
4. RF Jay Bruce
5. C Ramon Hernandez
6. CF Drew Stubbs
7. 3B Scott Rolen
8. SS Zack Cozart

AP Photo/David Kohl

If Heisey fails, call up Yonder Alonso and give him a shot. He's hitting .324 with 7 homers and 34 batted in for the Bats. And when he's healthy, let spring training phenom Dave Sappelt have his chance. Also, let Devin Mesoraco come up and have his shot to split some time with Ramon behind the plate. That means trading Ryan Hanigan. Look, I like Hanigan as much as the next guy. He's got a decent bat, calls a good game, and is very good behind the plate. But he isn't hitting much right now, which means he's essentially the same player as Corky Miller. I think Mesoraco can at least match his production, especially since he's doing well in AAA right now. And with Yasmani Grandal in the minors, too, Cincinnati can afford to deal Hanigan. Several teams would love to have him, particularly with his very affordable 3 year $4 million deal. The San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays are teams that come to mind. Throw in Todd Frazier and the Reds could acquire a middle of the rotation pitcher that can help the club out right now. In my eyes, that's how you fix this offense. Adjust the lineup and the philosophy, while interjecting a little more youth. It worked last year. What do the Reds have to lose? As for the pitching, it will either work itself out, or it won't. Sitting at 30-30, it's looking more and more each day like it won't. Go 15-15 to start the season, and you're just trying to get your feet on the ground. Go 15-15 from there, and that's a trend. It's called mediocrity.