Gearing Up for the Season; And March Madness

Goodyear Ballpark

Lucky for you the fact that I don't have any homework over Spring Break gives me the chance to blog again. Exciting, I know. I won't make any promises about the consistency of my writing. I'll try, but I've said that before. I do, however, have plans to upgrade and change the blog a bit. Stay tuned, it'll become more focused on Cincinnati sports as a whole, instead of just the Reds. Cause writing about just one team, even if it's the team you live and die with, gets old. But I wish I was in Goodyear again this year. Really, really miss the desert right about now.

First, since this is, for now, supposed to be a Reds blog, I guess I'll talk about the Reds. Though I plan on doing some sort of season preview, here's my keys to the season:

1. Scott Rolen

   Most will probably disagree with me on this, but he's the most important player on the team. They win when he is in the lineup, and they lose when he isn't. It's that simple. If his shoulder is strong, and he can hit .275 with 15 homers and play gold glove defense, the Reds will be in the hunt. They need 120 games out of him, though. And that's 120 healthy games. Now, the key is to keep him fresh in August and September, unlike 2010, when he basically disappeared - especially in October.

2. 

   The Reds need Arroyo to return to form. (Joe Robbins/Getty
   Images)

   Bronson Arroyo

   They need him to win 14-17 games. Generally, that has been the norm for him in Cincinnati. Not last year when he was arguably the worst pitcher in the league (Edinson Volquez makes a strong case though too). If he stinks, Latos and Cueto can only make up for so much. Let's face it - those guys, Leake, and Bailey are still pretty much question marks. We can expect one of them to be good, two to be average, and one to be disappointing. That means Arroyo has to be good. He has a track record, now he's gotta live up to it. Good news is, he was clocked at 88, 89 mph yesterday. That's up from the 85, 86 he was at last year. That couple miles of hour could make all the difference.

3. Up the Middle

   The Reds will start (probably) rookies at two important positions: Zack Cozart at short, and Devin Mesoraco at catcher. Both of them need to prove they can play here at the big leagues quickly. I think both will be solid players for years for the Reds, but I think Cozart is going to have the immediate impact. He seems like he's the type of kid that's ready to take on the challenge of the majors, offensively and defensively. It was only 11 games last year, but he played well in his call up. I think Cozart will hit somewhere around .280 with 15-20 bombs. Mesoraco, however, I think will struggle in his debut. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit in the .220 range, honestly. Mes is probably more focused on the pitching staff and getting in sync with them, rather than working on his offense. No worries, we know that offense will be there. And he will be an offensive force in a year or two, just not this year.

4. Someone has to have a career year

   The Reds need a break out year from someone. We all know Joey Votto will put up MVP numbers, and in a contract year, Brandon Phillips will have an All Star season. But someone else needs to have a career year to help this team reach the playoffs. Whether that's Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, etc., someone has to break out. I think Bruce is poised for an MVP type season. If he can get back to what he has done in the past, taking the ball the other way, I think Jay can be ridiculously good. He hit 32 homers last year and drove in 97 runs. So he's close, but the majority of those numbers came in May when no one could get him out. This could be the year everyone has been waiting for from Jay - 40+ homers and 100+ RBIs. He just needs to be more consistent.

5. Johnny Cueto

   Not worried about Mat Latos. I honestly believe he will put up similar numbers as to what he had in San Diego, or better. I think he will develop into the ace. I'm just worried Cueto's year was a fluke. I think he's a solid top of the rotation pitcher. But he was fairly lucky last year. That usually doesn't repeat itself. I don't expect him to put up a 2.32 ERA again. But I think it will be in the low threes. That should be acceptable. The Reds just can't afford for him to regress.

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If I hear anything more about the bounty stuff going on in the NFL, I might be sick. Honestly, Gregg Williams should be relieved of his duties in St. Louis. After what he did in Washington and New Orleans... disgraceful. And now we learn that Jeff Fisher's Tennessee Titans teams may have been involved with bounties. This is SpyGate, times twenty.

Yep, that looks weird. (arizonasports.com)

Where does Peyton end up? Everyone keeps saying Miami, Washington, Arizona, New York (Jets), or Tennessee/Houston. I think everyone thinks he will go to Miami, since they have the money and an attractive market. Plus they have Brandon Marshall, a decent defense, and could add a receiver (Reggie Wayne anyone?). Oh, not to mention the NFL would salivate over the idea of two Brady-Manning games a year. And Arizona is attractive, because of Larry Fitzgerald, and the success with Kurt Warner. That's where I want him to go, to recreate that high flying offense in the desert. But Peyton is going to want a place where he can win a championship. That place is Houston, even if Matt Schaub is there. Honestly, Manning or Schaub? No brainer. Plus, Peyton gets to stick it to the Colts and Irsay twice a year. Gotta love that.

By the way, John Elway, if you really don't like Tim Tebow, here's your chance. Everyone in Denver will rebel if you cut Tebow. But if you cut Tebow, and sign Peyton Manning, I think people will forget about Tim. Again, Tebow or Manning? No brainer. Just a suggestion, if you really want to dump Tebow.

And Colts fans, don't be upset or sad. You're getting Andrew Luck. You'll be fine in two or three years, simply because this is an entire rebuilding process. Luck won't win this coming year, or the year after that. But he will win. Just be thankful your star quarterback never actually quit on his teammates and his franchise.

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The big guy is key to any type of an
XU run. (Bob Stevens/
MusketeerMadness.com)

Love this time of the year. Normally. I mean I still do, I'm just used to my Xavier Musketeers having a tournament spot sewed up by now. Being on the bubble is not something I'm used to. And Friday's game against Dayton scares me. If XU couldn't handle Dayton at UD Arena, and needed overtime to beat them in a dramatic game at Cintas, why can they win on a neutral court? Somehow, someway, I think they win. Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons have been frustratingly inconsistent. But the fact they can both go off for 20+ any given game, and that Kenny Frease is finally playing like he isn't made out of cardboard, gives Xavier a chance. Yikes. Never though I'd admit that Frease is a key to any potential NCAA run. A veteran team that doesn't want their season to end can be a dangerous team. It's worked out before for Xavier. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle twice. Doubt it. But I will take my Muskies over UD: Xavier 75, Dayton 70.

Long gone are the team-oriented days, where
guys like Stanley Burrell led. (rivals.com)

I will say this, though. I'm sick of hearing about the fight, and the opposite directions UC and Xavier went in. I get it, it happened. But stop, please. Chris Welsh and Thom Brennaman were talking about it during a Reds Spring Training game on Monday. Why? Yes, Cincinnati banded together after the fight. But I'm here to tell you that Xavier would be 19-11 whether that fight had occurred or not. It's simple. They don't have a leader. The thing that has made Xavier so good for years is senior leadership. Dante Jackson, Jason Love, B.J. Raymond, Josh Duncan, Stanley Burrell, David West, Romain Sato, Lionel Chalmers, Justin Doellman, Justin Cage, etc. All of those guys were consummate professionals on the court. Even in their struggles, they were leaders. They were the glue to Xavier's teams. The Musketeers don't have that anymore. Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease failed as leaders this year. So, Xavier, as talented as they are, just didn't have the leadership. Some of that is on Mack, but he doesn't have a player in the locker room that can be his voice. Xavier's fall has nothing to do with a fight, a bad press conference, or zipping anybody up. They didn't lose any mojo. They just never had a leader. Play the games against Purdue, Butler, Miami, and Vanderbilt again, and there's a good chance they lose those close games. Most of those wins were plain luck. Things went their way. Nine out of ten times, they would've lost those games. They just happened to win them.

Cronin is laughing at his doubters now. (Joshua Bickel/
columbiatribune.com)

As for the Cats, the fact Mick Cronin didn't win coach of the year in the Big East means people need to get a reality check. He took a program in '06 that was on the brink of irrelevancy, and a team this year that was in danger of falling apart. Now, they're the fourth seed in the Big East tournament, playing Georgetown today. No coach has done more with less. And he deserves it after several bad years, and how hard UC fans have come down on him. That, I don't understand. I'll take Cronin over Mack every day of the week. I think UC survives today in Madison Square Garden: Cincinnati 64, Georgetown 62.

Anyways, where does Cincinnati end up seeded in the NCAA tournament? I mean, we know they're going, unless you're completely off your rocker. They're one of the four best teams in one of the toughest conferences (sorry folks, the Big East is a little down this year in my opinion) in the country. They own wins over Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, and UConn. Good enough for me. Yep, there's some bad losses, but they're still a tournament team. Sports is a 'what have you done for me lately?' world, and the Cats have been nails lately, other than a bad loss at USF (who, for my money, is not a tournament team). Depending on how deep of a run they make in the Big East tournament, I think they're any where from a 6 to 9 seed.

Now, I'll leave you with this beauty from Charlie Coles. The man retired this week, which is a shame, since you won't find a more genuine coach or man on this planet. Good luck Coach.