2012 Reds Season Preview + NCAA Final Four

Before I get to a long awaited preview of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds, I've got to make a few comments and predictions for today's Final Four.

Pitino's defense must be ready tonight.
AP Photo/Ed Reinke

Kentucky and Louisville will be as interesting as a game as we will see on this stage. Two storied programs, two storied rivals, and two coaches who hate each other. It's beautiful. And two things will happen tonight. Either Kentucky will show its poise, strength, and talent, and run the Cardinals out of the gym; or Louisville's pressure defense will wreak havoc and force a close game (note that I'm not saying the Cards will win). If there's one coach in America who can get his team up for the challenge of playing the best team in the country on this stage, it's Rick Pitino. For my money, he's a Hall of Famer and one of the best coaches in the history of college basketball. I'm biased, because he's always been my favorite coach, but there's not a coach in the country I would take over him. No one gets more out of his kids every season, or overachieves every season, than Louisville and Pitino. So, I won't be surprised if the Cards dog the Cats for 40 minutes and give them hell all night long.

On the other side, though, I would love to watch Kentucky lose. I've never liked the Cats, whether that's because of their obnoxious fans, or that I've always been partial to Louisville. It doesn't help that I think they treated Tubby Smith poorly, which is unfair because he is a great coach and a great man. And they've sold their soul to the devil in John Calipari. Make no mistake - Coach Cal will move on in the next 5 years from Kentucky, probably to North Carolina if/when Roy Williams hangs it up. He'll never stay put, and will always try to stay a step or two ahead of the NCAA and their investigations. There's a reason his Final Fours have been vacated at UMass and Memphis, and Cal was nowhere to be found when it happened.

As you can imagine, I'd really like to see Louisville pull the upset. Mainly since it's a no win situation for Calipari. If you win, well, you were expected to win - and now you better win it all. You lose, you will be remembered forever as the guy who lost in the Final Four to arch-rival Louisville with a vastly superior team. Ouch. Nonetheless, UofL doesn't have the weapons to match up with UK. For the Cards to win, they're going to have to hit a lot of outside shots, since Anthony Davis will be waiting in the lane for them all night. If Kyle Kuric plays like he did against UC the first time (0-11, 4 points) Louisville is in trouble. They desperately need him to have a big game. Kidd-Gilchrist will shut him down, though. Kentucky 79, Louisville 65.

Deshaun Thomas has been unstoppable in the tourney.
Getty Images/Jim Rogash

The Ohio State and Kansas game will be the real game of the night. It doesn't have the same ring as Kentucky-Louisville, but it is a matchup of two fine programs that are at or near the top of college basketball today. This isn't he most talented Jayhawk team, though. They are loaded on experience, but Ohio State has far too many weapons - starting with the explosive Deshaun Thomas who will take over the game. If Jared Sullinger struggles against Thomas Robinson, Ohio State could be in trouble. But I don't see that happening. Ohio State 68, Kansas 65.

That sets up a matchup on Monday night between the best team in the country, and the only team that I thought (as of last weekend) that could give them a good game. Nonetheless, I don't see any way that Ohio State pulls the upset. They'd have to play a near perfect game. The Buckeyes will keep it close, but UK is too talented. Kentucky 70, Ohio State 60. And the party will be on in Lexington and Rupp Arena, until the NCAA asks them to take the banner down in two years the record books are wiped clean.

BTW if you are a Chris Mack or a Xavier fan, I recommend this read. It's....interesting, to say the least.

---

2012 Cincinnati Reds Season Preview

Much of the Reds' hopes this year lie in Latos' right arm.
AP Photo

Starting Pitching: Everyone thought the Reds were loaded in the rotation going into last year, and everyone was wrong. The inability of Edinson Volquez to re-emerge as an ace led to him being shipped out, and now the Reds will put their hope and faith on the right arm of Mat Latos, who was 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA two years ago. Last year, he struggled some coming back from injury, but managed a respectable 3.47 ERA for a horrible San Diego team. He averages about a strikeout an inning, which will come in handy at GABP. But they're going to need that 3.57 career road ERA to hold up. If he can post that at home this year, the Reds will probably be happy with the 24 year old. Making the Opening Day start is Johnny Cueto, who emerged as the ace last season, after starting just 24 games. He posted a stunning 2.31 ERA and a nice, tidy 1.09 WHIP. No one expects him to duplicate those numbers, but if he's around the 3.00 mark for ERA, Cueto will be a steady option. They need 200 innings out of him, though. And no one knows if his shoulder issues from last year will re-emerge. The number three option is Bronson Arroyo, mainly because of his salary. He was arguably the worst pitcher in the majors last season, after going 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA and 46 homers surrendered. If he doesn't find a way to return to his 14 win form that Reds fans are used to, it will be another long summer. The last two spots in the rotation are a toss up between Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Aroldis Chapman. Mr. 105 should get a spot, particularly after a strong spring (18 K's and 2 BB's in 17 innings with a 2.12 ERA). Neither Bailey nor Leake has been particularly impressive - and Bailey has been lit up (20 hits in 14 2/3 innings). However, Bailey is out of options and the Reds don't want to lose him. That means he probably starts in the rotation, since he takes too long to warm up to come out of the 'pen. Leake probably gets shipped out to AAA for a couple of weeks, as his bullpen experiment won't work - he's a rhythm guy who needs to work every five days. Grade: B

Bullpen: A season ending injury to closer Ryan Madson hurts but is not devastating. Unlike most people, however, I think closers are not valued enough. If you've got a good one, good night, see you tomorrow. Ask the Yankees how valuable Mariano Rivera has been. And Ryan Madson was a good one. Now, the Reds enter the season with a question mark at that position, as 8th inning man Sean Marshall (who is as good as it gets as a lefty set up man) transitions into that role. With Nick Masset on the mend, the Reds turn to Logan Ondrusek, Bill Bray, Jose Arredondo, and Sam LeCure will fill out the majority of the bullpen and the 8th inning. Jeff Francis and who ever doesn't make the rotation will likely complete the pitching staff. It's just a shame how much the loss of one guy has complicated a bullpen that looked like it could be the best in the league. Grade: B

Catcher: Rookie Devin Mesoraco will team with veteran Ryan Hanigan to form a nice tandem. Hanigan is a pitcher's catcher all the way, but has turned himself into very nice offensive weapon. He hit .267 with 6 homers and 31 RBIs and a .356 OBP in 266 ABs last season, so we know he is a viable option. Mes, meanwhile, has struggled this spring, hitting just .222, with little to no power. And in 50 at bats last season, he hit just .180 at the big league level. I don't expect him to have a good offensive season this year. I'll be surprised if he hits more than 15 homers or better than .250. He seems to be focused on the pitching staff as of now, which I'm okay with. Devin has time to develop into an offensive force. How Dusty splits these two guys' ABs will be interesting, though. The myth is that Baker loves his vets, but we know he has stuck with Stubbs and Bruce through tough times. He also clearly favored Cozart for a short time last year when he came up (before the injury). The hope is Dusty gives Mesoraco the majority of the playing time. Grade: B-

Which version of Rolen will we see? 2010? Or 2011?
AP Photo/Al Behrman

Corner Infielders: Joey Votto and Scott Rolen have both been All Stars for the past two seasons (though Rolen was merely a replacement this past year, and had no business being there) and neither have anything to prove. Rolen is one of the best defensive third baseman in the history of the game, and only his lingering shoulder issues have prevented him from being a sure-fire Hall of Famer. He claims his shoulder feels better than it has in 5 years, which is good news. His lack of power last year was stunning, after he slugged 20 in 2010. He hit .325 this spring, with just one homer, but his power will come back as the year goes on. The important statistic was that he had nearly as many walks this spring (7) as he did all last year (10). If he trusts his shoulder and hands, Scotty will be fine. And they need that. For at least 120 games. If I need to talk about Joey Votto at all, then you shouldn't be reading this. He's the best first baseman in the National League, and will start at that position in the All Star game. Votto is poised to best his 2010 MVP season, and add to his impressive resume for free agency in two years. Grade: A-

Middle Infielders: Brandon Phillips is in a contract year, and Zack Cozart plays with a chip on his shoulder. That's a good sign for this team. I expect Phillips to build off of his huge season last year, and put together a banner year at the leadoff spot. He hit .300 with 18 homers last year, and his numbers will be around there again. Plus, he'll collect his 3rd career Gold Glove award, and will parlay all of this into a nice contract. Whether that's with the Reds or some other team is yet to be seen. Cozart impressed in his 11 games last year, which is far too small of a sample size. But he was the Reds best hitter this spring, batting .392. He won't come near that number in the regular season, but he might be a favorite for rookie of the year. Look for him to become the rock the Reds have been missing at short for years. Grade: A-

Stubbs has been whiffing a lot more than he's
been slugging in his short career.
AP Photo/Al Behrman

Outfielders: Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey would be the envy of any team wishing to cover a lot of ground in their outfield. And they all have the potential to hit in the heart of any order. Bruce began to live up to his building with 32 homers and 97 batted in during the 2011 season. He made the All Star team, but much of his numbers were built on a torrid May where he won the player of the month award. If he can be consistent for close to 6 months, the Reds will have a dangerous duo in him and Votto. There may not be a more talented player on the team than Stubbs. There also may not be a more frustrating player than Stubbs. He struck out a stunning 205 times in 604 at bats last year. That number can't repeat itself. His lack of consistent production or ability to find a spot in the lineup was also maddening. A year after performing well in the 7th slot, Dusty moved him to leadoff, where he surged, then slumped. After that, he never got it together. This year Stubbs will be back in the 7th spot of the lineup, so the Reds will be relying on him to flash more of that 20+ homer power. Heisey and Ryan Ludwick will make up an interesting platoon situation in left field. Whoever hits will take over the spot, but maybe not. Dusty never settled on him last year, despite strong play at times. If Ludwick can capture any where near his 37 homer season from a few years ago in St. Louis, he will take over left field - and probably the cleanup spot. Grade: B

Bench: Miguel Cairo will lead the charge off the bench again, along with former Phillie Wilson Valdez. Neither strike fear in the heart of an enemy, but Valdez can hit more than Paul Janish, and Cairo is a leader in the clubhouse. And he did hit 8 homers last year. He will be key in spelling Scott Rolen. Valdez can play shortstop and around the infield, which provides a little more flexibility off the bench for Dusty. The key will be who wins the 25th roster spot. Juan Francisco or Todd Frazier? Francisco is out of options, and has tantalizing talent (he hit a ball out of GABP last year). He also is maddeningly inconsistent (is that a pattern with this team?) and hit just .184 in the spring. His four homers are certainly nice, though, and he would provide left handed pop off the bench late in games. Frazier, though, blasted 5 homers and drove in 12 runs over the spring, while batting a respectable .280. He can play 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and the corner outfield spots. That's versatility that Francisco doesn't have. And it makes him the favorite to make the team. Sending out Francisco though makes it risky that some other team will grab him off waivers. If necessary, the Reds could ship Leake out to AAA, and play with 14 position players for a couple of weeks, then bring Leake back up.

Note: As of Sunday April 1st, Juan Francisco has been traded to the Braves for right handed reliever J.J. Hoover.  Grade: B

---

In order for another another celebration like this, the Reds
are going to need a lot to go right.
Getty Images

Final Outlook: The Reds are a balanced team offensively, and have a lot of nice pitchers. But there are a lot of 'ifs' that surround this team. I was extremely positive going into Spring Training, but have felt uneasy as we've gotten closer to April 5th. Milwaukee has far less questions than the Reds do, which makes them the favorites in my eyes. I don't doubt the talent of this team, but I don't like relying on aging veterans to have bounce back seasons, or young players to finally break out when they haven't over the last few years. Nonetheless, I'd put money on this team playing in October. It just may not be as division champs. But if you're looking for a prediction on division standings, you're going to have to wait a few days. Final Grade: B/B+

Gearing Up for the Season; And March Madness

Goodyear Ballpark

Lucky for you the fact that I don't have any homework over Spring Break gives me the chance to blog again. Exciting, I know. I won't make any promises about the consistency of my writing. I'll try, but I've said that before. I do, however, have plans to upgrade and change the blog a bit. Stay tuned, it'll become more focused on Cincinnati sports as a whole, instead of just the Reds. Cause writing about just one team, even if it's the team you live and die with, gets old. But I wish I was in Goodyear again this year. Really, really miss the desert right about now.

First, since this is, for now, supposed to be a Reds blog, I guess I'll talk about the Reds. Though I plan on doing some sort of season preview, here's my keys to the season:

1. Scott Rolen

   Most will probably disagree with me on this, but he's the most important player on the team. They win when he is in the lineup, and they lose when he isn't. It's that simple. If his shoulder is strong, and he can hit .275 with 15 homers and play gold glove defense, the Reds will be in the hunt. They need 120 games out of him, though. And that's 120 healthy games. Now, the key is to keep him fresh in August and September, unlike 2010, when he basically disappeared - especially in October.

2. 

   The Reds need Arroyo to return to form. (Joe Robbins/Getty
   Images)

   Bronson Arroyo

   They need him to win 14-17 games. Generally, that has been the norm for him in Cincinnati. Not last year when he was arguably the worst pitcher in the league (Edinson Volquez makes a strong case though too). If he stinks, Latos and Cueto can only make up for so much. Let's face it - those guys, Leake, and Bailey are still pretty much question marks. We can expect one of them to be good, two to be average, and one to be disappointing. That means Arroyo has to be good. He has a track record, now he's gotta live up to it. Good news is, he was clocked at 88, 89 mph yesterday. That's up from the 85, 86 he was at last year. That couple miles of hour could make all the difference.

3. Up the Middle

   The Reds will start (probably) rookies at two important positions: Zack Cozart at short, and Devin Mesoraco at catcher. Both of them need to prove they can play here at the big leagues quickly. I think both will be solid players for years for the Reds, but I think Cozart is going to have the immediate impact. He seems like he's the type of kid that's ready to take on the challenge of the majors, offensively and defensively. It was only 11 games last year, but he played well in his call up. I think Cozart will hit somewhere around .280 with 15-20 bombs. Mesoraco, however, I think will struggle in his debut. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit in the .220 range, honestly. Mes is probably more focused on the pitching staff and getting in sync with them, rather than working on his offense. No worries, we know that offense will be there. And he will be an offensive force in a year or two, just not this year.

4. Someone has to have a career year

   The Reds need a break out year from someone. We all know Joey Votto will put up MVP numbers, and in a contract year, Brandon Phillips will have an All Star season. But someone else needs to have a career year to help this team reach the playoffs. Whether that's Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, etc., someone has to break out. I think Bruce is poised for an MVP type season. If he can get back to what he has done in the past, taking the ball the other way, I think Jay can be ridiculously good. He hit 32 homers last year and drove in 97 runs. So he's close, but the majority of those numbers came in May when no one could get him out. This could be the year everyone has been waiting for from Jay - 40+ homers and 100+ RBIs. He just needs to be more consistent.

5. Johnny Cueto

   Not worried about Mat Latos. I honestly believe he will put up similar numbers as to what he had in San Diego, or better. I think he will develop into the ace. I'm just worried Cueto's year was a fluke. I think he's a solid top of the rotation pitcher. But he was fairly lucky last year. That usually doesn't repeat itself. I don't expect him to put up a 2.32 ERA again. But I think it will be in the low threes. That should be acceptable. The Reds just can't afford for him to regress.

---

If I hear anything more about the bounty stuff going on in the NFL, I might be sick. Honestly, Gregg Williams should be relieved of his duties in St. Louis. After what he did in Washington and New Orleans... disgraceful. And now we learn that Jeff Fisher's Tennessee Titans teams may have been involved with bounties. This is SpyGate, times twenty.

Yep, that looks weird. (arizonasports.com)

Where does Peyton end up? Everyone keeps saying Miami, Washington, Arizona, New York (Jets), or Tennessee/Houston. I think everyone thinks he will go to Miami, since they have the money and an attractive market. Plus they have Brandon Marshall, a decent defense, and could add a receiver (Reggie Wayne anyone?). Oh, not to mention the NFL would salivate over the idea of two Brady-Manning games a year. And Arizona is attractive, because of Larry Fitzgerald, and the success with Kurt Warner. That's where I want him to go, to recreate that high flying offense in the desert. But Peyton is going to want a place where he can win a championship. That place is Houston, even if Matt Schaub is there. Honestly, Manning or Schaub? No brainer. Plus, Peyton gets to stick it to the Colts and Irsay twice a year. Gotta love that.

By the way, John Elway, if you really don't like Tim Tebow, here's your chance. Everyone in Denver will rebel if you cut Tebow. But if you cut Tebow, and sign Peyton Manning, I think people will forget about Tim. Again, Tebow or Manning? No brainer. Just a suggestion, if you really want to dump Tebow.

And Colts fans, don't be upset or sad. You're getting Andrew Luck. You'll be fine in two or three years, simply because this is an entire rebuilding process. Luck won't win this coming year, or the year after that. But he will win. Just be thankful your star quarterback never actually quit on his teammates and his franchise.

---

The big guy is key to any type of an
XU run. (Bob Stevens/
MusketeerMadness.com)

Love this time of the year. Normally. I mean I still do, I'm just used to my Xavier Musketeers having a tournament spot sewed up by now. Being on the bubble is not something I'm used to. And Friday's game against Dayton scares me. If XU couldn't handle Dayton at UD Arena, and needed overtime to beat them in a dramatic game at Cintas, why can they win on a neutral court? Somehow, someway, I think they win. Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons have been frustratingly inconsistent. But the fact they can both go off for 20+ any given game, and that Kenny Frease is finally playing like he isn't made out of cardboard, gives Xavier a chance. Yikes. Never though I'd admit that Frease is a key to any potential NCAA run. A veteran team that doesn't want their season to end can be a dangerous team. It's worked out before for Xavier. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle twice. Doubt it. But I will take my Muskies over UD: Xavier 75, Dayton 70.

Long gone are the team-oriented days, where
guys like Stanley Burrell led. (rivals.com)

I will say this, though. I'm sick of hearing about the fight, and the opposite directions UC and Xavier went in. I get it, it happened. But stop, please. Chris Welsh and Thom Brennaman were talking about it during a Reds Spring Training game on Monday. Why? Yes, Cincinnati banded together after the fight. But I'm here to tell you that Xavier would be 19-11 whether that fight had occurred or not. It's simple. They don't have a leader. The thing that has made Xavier so good for years is senior leadership. Dante Jackson, Jason Love, B.J. Raymond, Josh Duncan, Stanley Burrell, David West, Romain Sato, Lionel Chalmers, Justin Doellman, Justin Cage, etc. All of those guys were consummate professionals on the court. Even in their struggles, they were leaders. They were the glue to Xavier's teams. The Musketeers don't have that anymore. Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease failed as leaders this year. So, Xavier, as talented as they are, just didn't have the leadership. Some of that is on Mack, but he doesn't have a player in the locker room that can be his voice. Xavier's fall has nothing to do with a fight, a bad press conference, or zipping anybody up. They didn't lose any mojo. They just never had a leader. Play the games against Purdue, Butler, Miami, and Vanderbilt again, and there's a good chance they lose those close games. Most of those wins were plain luck. Things went their way. Nine out of ten times, they would've lost those games. They just happened to win them.

Cronin is laughing at his doubters now. (Joshua Bickel/
columbiatribune.com)

As for the Cats, the fact Mick Cronin didn't win coach of the year in the Big East means people need to get a reality check. He took a program in '06 that was on the brink of irrelevancy, and a team this year that was in danger of falling apart. Now, they're the fourth seed in the Big East tournament, playing Georgetown today. No coach has done more with less. And he deserves it after several bad years, and how hard UC fans have come down on him. That, I don't understand. I'll take Cronin over Mack every day of the week. I think UC survives today in Madison Square Garden: Cincinnati 64, Georgetown 62.

Anyways, where does Cincinnati end up seeded in the NCAA tournament? I mean, we know they're going, unless you're completely off your rocker. They're one of the four best teams in one of the toughest conferences (sorry folks, the Big East is a little down this year in my opinion) in the country. They own wins over Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, and UConn. Good enough for me. Yep, there's some bad losses, but they're still a tournament team. Sports is a 'what have you done for me lately?' world, and the Cats have been nails lately, other than a bad loss at USF (who, for my money, is not a tournament team). Depending on how deep of a run they make in the Big East tournament, I think they're any where from a 6 to 9 seed.

Now, I'll leave you with this beauty from Charlie Coles. The man retired this week, which is a shame, since you won't find a more genuine coach or man on this planet. Good luck Coach.