Volquez to Open; Down Goes Wainwright....the Cardinals too?

As I'm sure you know, Dusty Baker has decided to open the season with Edinson Volquez on March 31st, over Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, who will follow on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. No surprise here. Cueto and Arroyo aren't aces, but solid number two starters. Granted, Volquez is not an ace either, but he has better stuff than the other two, and has the greater chance to lock up with the best pitchers in the league and beat them. Also, this was the rotation Dusty went with in the playoffs, so I figured it was probably what he'd go with to open the season. He wants to break up the power arms in the rotation, so that's why Bronson won't start on Opening Day. Hopefully Edinson pitches better to start the season than he did to end it in Philadelphia...

Nonetheless, it's going to be strange going to Opening Day and not seeing big number 39 climb the hill for the Reds. I don't care how bad he was the last couple of years, Aaron Harang was the closest thing to an ace the Reds have had in years.

The Reds won their spring opener today in Goodyear, Arizona, against the Cleveland Indians, 7-6. Matt Maloney, who is vying to be the long man in the bullpen, started and pitched a pair of perfect innings. Sam LeCure, who is also battling to be in the bullpen, struck out four in two scoreless innings. Daryl Thompson (yes the same guy who threw a heck of a game against the Yankees several years ago) looked good in an inning and two-thirds of relief. And Jose Arredondo picked up a save, pitching for the first time in a year and a half. Dave Sappelt, who could force his way to Cincinnati this year, slammed a two run shot, and utility man Chris Valaika homered. The Reds rallied from down 6-1, with young shortstop Zack Cozart tying the game with a single, and catcher Corky Miller doubling in the winning run.

This brings me to five guys to look out for in spring training:

1. Jose Arredondo. If this guy pitches like he did for the Angels in 2008, the Reds will have a real weapon. He had a 10-2 record with a 1.62 ERA, before blowing out his elbow the following year. Arredondo would likely share setup duties with Nick Masset, and could potentially be the future at closer.

2. Homer Bailey. I get the feeling that this is the make-or-break year for Homer. If he struggles, the Reds may try to deal him, since he is out of options and can't be sent to the minors. There has to be frustration within the organization that the once future ace has never completely developed.

3. Billy Hamilton. He's been the talk of the organization, as the future at shortstop. He's playing second base right now, but has shortstop like skills with the glove. Hamilton has some pop in his bat, and can absolutely fly. He's only 20 years old, but could be up here soon.

4. Todd Frazier. I've heard his name for years, since coming out of Rutgers, and he has always been listed as a top prospect. But he's never gotten up to the bigs yet, and regressed last year. Time to find out if this kid can rake like scouts thought he could.

5. Fred Lewis. This is his shot to prove himself as a leadoff hitter. The job in left will not be handed to him, and he will have to pry it away from Jonny Gomes. I don't think he will, but Walt Jocketty has an eye for talent, and it will be interesting to see if his belief in Lewis could pay off.

Meanwhile, in St. Louis, a nightmare is unfolding for Cardinals fans. Adam Wainwright, who experienced elbow pain at the end of last year, left camp after a few days this spring with more pain. He needs Tommy John surgery, and will be gone for this year, as well as half of next year. This guy is an ace, and one of the three or four best pitchers in the game. Losing him is a huge blow to the Cardinals, who now must rely on Chris Carpenter to regain his form, and for Jaime Garcia to avoid a sophomore slump. I don't think St. Louis will go away, but I think their shot at making the playoffs has been greatly reduced. There is no replacement or solution to the loss of Wainwright. And it sure makes it easier for the Reds, having to face one less great pitcher in their hunt for another division title.