Volquez to Open; Down Goes Wainwright....the Cardinals too?

As I'm sure you know, Dusty Baker has decided to open the season with Edinson Volquez on March 31st, over Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, who will follow on Saturday and Sunday, respectively. No surprise here. Cueto and Arroyo aren't aces, but solid number two starters. Granted, Volquez is not an ace either, but he has better stuff than the other two, and has the greater chance to lock up with the best pitchers in the league and beat them. Also, this was the rotation Dusty went with in the playoffs, so I figured it was probably what he'd go with to open the season. He wants to break up the power arms in the rotation, so that's why Bronson won't start on Opening Day. Hopefully Edinson pitches better to start the season than he did to end it in Philadelphia...

Nonetheless, it's going to be strange going to Opening Day and not seeing big number 39 climb the hill for the Reds. I don't care how bad he was the last couple of years, Aaron Harang was the closest thing to an ace the Reds have had in years.

The Reds won their spring opener today in Goodyear, Arizona, against the Cleveland Indians, 7-6. Matt Maloney, who is vying to be the long man in the bullpen, started and pitched a pair of perfect innings. Sam LeCure, who is also battling to be in the bullpen, struck out four in two scoreless innings. Daryl Thompson (yes the same guy who threw a heck of a game against the Yankees several years ago) looked good in an inning and two-thirds of relief. And Jose Arredondo picked up a save, pitching for the first time in a year and a half. Dave Sappelt, who could force his way to Cincinnati this year, slammed a two run shot, and utility man Chris Valaika homered. The Reds rallied from down 6-1, with young shortstop Zack Cozart tying the game with a single, and catcher Corky Miller doubling in the winning run.

This brings me to five guys to look out for in spring training:

1. Jose Arredondo. If this guy pitches like he did for the Angels in 2008, the Reds will have a real weapon. He had a 10-2 record with a 1.62 ERA, before blowing out his elbow the following year. Arredondo would likely share setup duties with Nick Masset, and could potentially be the future at closer.

2. Homer Bailey. I get the feeling that this is the make-or-break year for Homer. If he struggles, the Reds may try to deal him, since he is out of options and can't be sent to the minors. There has to be frustration within the organization that the once future ace has never completely developed.

3. Billy Hamilton. He's been the talk of the organization, as the future at shortstop. He's playing second base right now, but has shortstop like skills with the glove. Hamilton has some pop in his bat, and can absolutely fly. He's only 20 years old, but could be up here soon.

4. Todd Frazier. I've heard his name for years, since coming out of Rutgers, and he has always been listed as a top prospect. But he's never gotten up to the bigs yet, and regressed last year. Time to find out if this kid can rake like scouts thought he could.

5. Fred Lewis. This is his shot to prove himself as a leadoff hitter. The job in left will not be handed to him, and he will have to pry it away from Jonny Gomes. I don't think he will, but Walt Jocketty has an eye for talent, and it will be interesting to see if his belief in Lewis could pay off.

Meanwhile, in St. Louis, a nightmare is unfolding for Cardinals fans. Adam Wainwright, who experienced elbow pain at the end of last year, left camp after a few days this spring with more pain. He needs Tommy John surgery, and will be gone for this year, as well as half of next year. This guy is an ace, and one of the three or four best pitchers in the game. Losing him is a huge blow to the Cardinals, who now must rely on Chris Carpenter to regain his form, and for Jaime Garcia to avoid a sophomore slump. I don't think St. Louis will go away, but I think their shot at making the playoffs has been greatly reduced. There is no replacement or solution to the loss of Wainwright. And it sure makes it easier for the Reds, having to face one less great pitcher in their hunt for another division title.

The Pujols Drama

Well well well. The drama continues to unfold in Cardinals camp, and it isn't pretty. Albert Pujols and the Cardinals failed to reach an agreement on a new contract for the slugger, which means there won't be any more discussion until after the season, so as to avoid distraction. Too late. That contract is now an elephant standing in the corner of that clubhouse. You can't tell me that every player in there isn't thinking about what this team would look like without Albert. Quite frankly, the St. Louis Cardinals need Albert Pujols more than Albert Pujols needs the St. Louis Cardinals. He played for ten years for their price, and now he'd like to finish his career there at his price.

What uniform will Albert be wearing in 2012?

Let me clarify: Albert does not WANT to leave St. Louis. This does not mean he won't leave St. Louis. As I said, he wants to play for his price. Presumably, Albert's price is in the range of 10 years, $300 million. Honestly, that's a nice price for King Albert. He's worth much more than that. Almost invaluable, in my opinion. He is one of the rare players that doesn't just carry his team for weeks, but for months. He may go down as the greatest player ever. He's certainly had one of the best 10 year runs to start a career, ever. Supposedly, the Cardinals low balled him in years and money. They obviously don't want to pay him $30+ million when he is 41 years old. Instead, they were offering in the range of 6-8 years, and somewhere between $19-23 million. Remember what I said a couple of days ago? No small market team (and the Cardinals are a small market team) can afford to pay a player $20+ million. Certainly not much more than that. The Cardinals can't go much higher. Pujols certainly won't go lower. There's no reason to give in. 

Personally, I'm split on this issue. Him leaving is fantastic for the Reds as a team, and terrible for baseball. If he won't sign for that amount, how can the Reds possibly afford Joey Votto, who will presumably be looking for $20+ million? And it says to all the teams out there, that you have no chance of being consistently competitive and having a shot at winning it all every year unless you can spend well over $100 million. Few teams can do that, so they rely on smart drafting, shrewd trades, and good player development. That gives them a three or four year window, and then they have to unload, and start over. It's tough stuff, and a couple of bad drafts leave you looking like the Kansas City Royals. Albert leaving would be good for the Reds, well, because he would no longer be killing them - as long as he leaves the Central. 

At the end of the day, I think the Cardinals give. I'm thinking 8 years at around $27 million a year. St. Louis won't stand by and watch Albert walk. They can't afford to.

Nonetheless, let's get to seven spring story lines:

The Phillies rotation...perhaps the best in history?

1. The Phab Phour - It's basically all anyone has talked about this offseason. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. How in the world can anyone stop the Philadelphia Phillies. The best answer people have given is that you simply can't. With four aces like that, supposedly, the Phillies will romp to a World Series title. They may, but you have to get to the playoffs first. Right now, Philadelphia is more closely built for October than the 162 game season. I have questions about that aging offense.

2. Boston's New Toys - Carl Crawford plays a great left field, and is as talented as they come in the speed and hitting department. He could leadoff or bat third. And now there's some more thump in the middle of the order with Adrian Gonzalez. If this guy put up these kind of numbers in spacious Petco Park, imagine what he will do in cozy Fenway. Boston is the clear favorite in the American League, especially considering they won 89 games with a banged up and depleted roster last year. With the upgrades this year, look out.

3. Aces High in Milwaukee - The team that made the most waves in the league this offseason was the Milwaukee Brewers. Realizing their window of opportunity could be closing, especially with slugger Prince Fielder most likely departing after the season, they ravaged the farm system to get Shaun Marcum from Toronto and Zack Greinke from Kansas City. Will it pay off? Has Milwaukee sacrificed the future for this year? We'll find out.

4. Misfits, Part Deux - The San Francisco Giants were a team filled with midseason and weird pickups. They were the Misfits, with a bunch of players that seemingly no one else wanted. But great pitching helped them to their first World Series in the city by the bay. They made little moves in the offseason, again counting on their dominant pitching to carry them. But can newcomer Miguel Tejada make up for the clutch hitting they lost in Juan Uribe? Can a team that caught lightning in a bottle once really do it again?

Michael Young

5. Rangers, Reloaded - It seemed simple, the Rangers, if they brought back Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero, would be the favorites out West again, and would have as good a shot as any to get back to the World Series. Now, I'm not so sure. How will C.J. Wilson handle that jump in innings? Can Brandon Webb be an impact arm for them? Adrian Beltre has historically been a contract year player, can he quiet that talk this year? And any time a team messes with clubhouse chemistry it is never good. Michael Young is a class player, and one of the best players in the history of the Rangers. They are treating him like a rag doll, and he has reportedly asked out. The Rangers are playing with fire when it comes to their heart and soul.

6. The Need for Speed - How will Aroldis Chapman's first full year in the majors go? Now that people have seen the 105 mph gas, how will hitters respond and prepare? Can he replace Arthur Rhodes in the back of the bullpen? Is he the closer down the line? When will Cincinnati take a chance and put him in the rotation? So many questions behind the most talented young pitcher not named Stephen Strasburg.

7. M&M Boys - When will the Minnesota Twins finally get over the hump and start winning some playoff games? Justin Morneau is back and healthy this season, which means he and Mauer will be raking again this summer. A full year again in that ballpark should do some good for all of their hitters. This team owns the AL Central, but it's a little disappointing that they are seemingly swept out of the playoffs each and every year. 

Reds Recap and Spring Storylines

First off, please forgive me, I realize that it has been quite awhile since I've posted on my blog. A new semester is always busy, and we've sort of been in a difficult time to talk about baseball, with little stories to discuss. So I'll give several brief accounts of what's going on, and what I think about them.

Joey Votto signed a 3 year, $38 million deal. He will earn $5.5 million in 2011, $9.5 million in 2012, and $17 million in 2013. He also got a $6 million signing bonus. Essentially, with the signing bonus and the money for the first year, Votto will make what he would have in arbitration. And that was all the Reds wanted to do - lock up his three arbitration years, without breaking the bank. The dollar amounts for all three years are very affordable for Cincinnati. And let's face it, Joey will probably not be here in Cincinnati past 2013, unless he's willing to take a discount, or the Reds' payroll has increased drastically due to an almost nightly sell out at Great American. Otherwise, it simply is not feasible for a small market team to pay one player $20+ million a year.

Johnny Cueto signed a 4 year, $27 million contract. Here, the Reds bought out three of his arbitration years, and one of his free agent years. This is a tremendous deal for Cincinnati, as long as Cueto continues to grow and mature into a solid number two starter. It's fairly obvious that he will most likely never be a shut down ace, but he can be a solid member of the rotation. Of course, the fear is that Cueto will become lackadaisical now that he will be paid millions of dollars. Let's hope his production does not drop off.

Edinson Volquez inked a one year, $1.625 million deal to avoid arbitration. Volquez supposedly turned down a four year deal that would have been similar to Cueto's. He's banking on the fact that he can have another tremendous year like he did in 2008, and parlay that into a massive deal. Can't blame Volquez on this line of thinking. I would do it too. Volquez has better stuff than Cueto, and has more potential than him too. If he can harness it, and his emotions, he is the shut down pitcher the Reds lack. If he doesn't though, he could be trade bait in the future.

The Reds signed outfielder Fred Lewis to a one year $900,000 contract. He mainly plays left field, and bats lead off. At 30 years old, with a history of foot injuries, I question his defense and speed. Also, I hate the idea of a platoon, particularly when Jonny Gomes is a more important player (and a better one) than Lewis. Honestly, how important is the leadoff man? He doesn't come up as the leadoff hitter every inning, and probably will only do so an inning or two in a game. It's overrated. The Reds never had a leadoff hitter last year, and led the National League in runs scored. Gomes is a leader on this club, and well respected by his teammates and the fans. I expect him to take the potential platoon as a challenge, and to put up an even better year than last year. Perhaps Walt Jocketty brought in Lewis to be the leadoff man, or simply as a shrewd investment to motivate Jonny Gomes.

Some of the Reds doing conditioning drills in Goodyear.

Pitchers and catchers officially report tomorrow to Goodyear, Arizona for the Cincinnati Reds. Then, it's just 12 days until the first spring training game. Opening Day is just a matter of weeks away. Let's check out some spring training story lines to look out for with the Reds this year:

1. Who is the number 4 and 5 starter? It will come down to Homer Bailey, Travis Wood, and Mike Leake. Leake forced the Reds' hand last year, since there was a lack of depth at the time in the rotation, and he pitched outstandingly to make the team. He will have to do it again this year. Bailey is out of minor league options, so he would be picked up by some other team if he did not make the roster, and his arm is too good to let go. Wood has a leg up because he is a quality left hander.

2. Jonny Gomes vs. Fred Lewis. I've already given my opinion on this. Lewis is a highly talented outfielder that has the potential to leadoff, but has been inconsistent at times in his career. This type of player has ruined the Reds' seasons in past. Think Corey Patterson and Willy Taveras. Jonny Gomes is too valuable not to get 500+ at bats in the heart of the order.

3. Paul Janish vs. Edgar Renteria. I'm not a big fan of Renteria, and I personally believe he is on the decline. Renteria and Janish would most likely put up similar numbers if given the same number of at bats, so the job should go to the better fielder. That would be Janish. And the Reds have enough offense in their lineup to make up for any deficiencies that Janish has.

4. Aroldis Chapman. Nobody can go very long without mentioning the 105 mph throwing left hander when talking about the Reds. His stuff is absolutely filthy, and Francisco Cordero could be on a short leash early on. With such a competitive division, can the Reds really afford to live on the wild side with an inconsistent Coco at the back end? Chapman is as intimidating as they come, and could be to the Reds what Neftali Feliz is to the Rangers.

5. The Stubbs conundrum. If Fred Lewis doesn't bat leadoff, does Stubbs? Or is he down at the 6th or 7th spot? His unique combination of lightning speed and thunderous power leaves Dusty Baker and the Reds in a tough spot. If he drew a few more walks, Stubbs could bat leadoff and utilize that speed. Or, he could drive in runs sitting behind Votto, Rolen, Bruce, and Gomes. Personally, I'm a fan of him later in the lineup, where he can hit those three run homers, instead of the solo shots.

Tomorrow, I'll take a look at St. Louis' impending Doomsday with the Albert Pujols situation, as well as other spring training story lines from around the majors.