2012 Season Predictions

Just hours away from the traditional Opening Day in Cincinnati, here's my picks for every division, every team in baseball, plus a World Champion. I left it to a couple sentences per team, just to make it easier on you. And if you've got the time, make sure you check out my Cincinnati Reds preview. Whatever you're doing today, I hope you find a few minutes to flip on a baseball game and enjoy today. There's nothing like it in sports. 

NL East

Ozzie will be smiling at the end of the season, too.

1. Miami (93-69) - The Phillies are ripe for the picking, with that rotation a year older and the injuries to Howard and Utley. The Marlins additions (Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, and Ozzie Guillen) are hard to ignore.

2. Philadelphia (90-72)* - A year older, and the Phillies' decline will continue. They remind me of the Cubs, as they started to age three years ago after a couple of dominant years. How has that turned out?

3. Washington (85-77) - They're the trendy pick across baseball to make a lot of noise and squeeze into the playoffs. I still think the Nats are a year (and a big bat, namely Bryce Harper) from being big time contenders.

4. Atlanta (81-81) - The hangover after last year's epic collapse will effect them through the first month. That and there's a lot of questions on this team, and the rotation has yearly health concerns.

5. New York (72-90) - I don't think the Mets are actually this awful. They have some really nice pieces to their team, but they play in the wrong division.

NL Central

If Scott has 120 healthy games in him, the Reds will win the
Central.

1. Cincinnati (90-72) - The top of the Central will be one of the most tightly packed divisions in baseball. I'll take the Reds to barely win the division, because of their improved pitching and strong defense. We know they are going to score a ton of runs, but the season will come down to the health of Scott Rolen.

2. Milwaukee (89-73)* - The Brew Crew has the best rotation in the Central, and arguably the best rotation. Their defense is till a major question, and the offense could be suspect with the loss of Prince Fielder, while relying on the slow starting Aramis Ramirez and youngster Mat Gamel.

3. St. Louis (86-76) - Probably the most balanced team in the division, with a strong bullpen, rotation, and offense. But there's a lot of questions here - can Lance Berkman and Kyle Lohse repeat their performances?; can David Freese and Carlos Beltran stay healthy?; how much can Adam Wainwright (Tommy John surgery) and Chris Carpenter (nerve irritation) provide?

4. Pittsburgh (75-87) - They surprised a lot of teams by leading the division in July. The Buccos will be hard-pressed to get off to a strong start again, and attempt to maintain that across 162 games with a lack of depth.

5. Chicago (73-89) - The addition of GM Theo Epstein will help this team in the long haul. But they need to develop that farm system first.

6. Houston (66-96) - The Astros are the worst team in baseball. And the rest of the division will miss beating up on them at the end of the season.

NL West

The Giants need a banner year from their young catcher.

1. San Francisco (89-73) - Behind that strong three of Lincecum, Cain, and Bumgarner, the Giants will bounce back and have a strong season. But they're going to need a comeback from Buster Posey, and an MVP-type season from Pablo Sandoval.

2. Arizona (87-75) - The surprise of the National League last year, I think Arizona takes a step back this year. However, I think this is the team to take the West should the Giants stumble at all. They are the most balanced team in the division, top to bottom and Kirk Gibson is a rising star as a manager.

3. Los Angeles (83-79) - Give Magic Johnson two years, and the Dodgers will have the best team in the division. They are finally headed in the right direction after changing owners, and locking up All Star Matt Kemp for the future.

4. Colorado (77-85) - Everything hinges on that young rotation. If they take off, the Rockies have the offense to carry them into the playoffs. But if they pitch like the youngsters they are, it will be a long season in Denver.

5. San Diego (70-92) - Edinson Volquez gets the Opening Day start for the Pads. What does that say? They have issues in the rotation, but they are heading in the right direction, particularly in building around Yonder Alonso and Cameron Maybin.

*Denotes Wild Card

AL East

The East will have to get used to this stare all over again.

1. New York (95-67) - Year in, year out, they're the class of this division. Their could be some questions about this rotation, but if Pineda is healthy, and Pettitte gives them some nice innings, the Yanks have more than enough offense to make a deep run.

2. Tampa Bay (90-72)* - Best young pitching staff in the game, with three or four guys that could be aces on other teams. The offense is an annual question, but pitching, defense, and strong development will keep this franchise in it year after year.

3. Toronto (84-78) - The sexy pick of the American League, like the Nationals, I believe the Blue Jays are still a year away. There's a lot of star power developing in Toronto, though, and if they are start to have success, it's a big market city just waiting to explode.

4. Boston (81-81) - See Atlanta Braves. After an epic September collapse, new manager Bobby V has a lot of attitudes to change on this club. Not having good 4 and 5 starters in a tough division will kill this talented team, though.

5. Baltimore (72-90) - Anyone else feel like people have been saying the Orioles are ready to break out for, oh, the last six or seven years? There's a lot of former big time prospects on this team, but they've never been able to put it all together.

AL Central

Looks weird, doesn't it? Tigers fans aren't complaining.

1. Detroit (91-71) - Easily the best team in the division without Prince Fielder. With Prince? The Tigers will clinch the division by the end of April.

2. Cleveland (79-83) - They surprised a lot of teams last season by hanging around for a long time. In the end, Cleveland fans got what they are always used to - disappointment. Now, everything hinges on that deal they made for Ubaldo Jimenez. If he finds his 2010 form, the Indians will be fine. If he doesn't, they may have mortgaged the franchise.

3. Kansas City (76-86) - At long last, the talented Royals are finally arriving to the big leagues. Led by Eric Hosmer, this team has a chance to contend maybe into August, before they fall off. For the first time in a long time, though, there's finally some hope in KC.

4. Minnesota (73-89) - The M&M boys used to be the toast of the American League, as they bashed their way to division title after division title. Now, they're struggling to stay on the field. That and a lack of quality players around them, and the Twins have really fallen off.

5. Chicago (73-89) - The Sox were always a trendy pick to win the Central, but a lot of bad contracts have sunk this team, just like their counterparts on the North Side. Adam Dunn can't be that bad again, can he? At least there's always Paul Konerko to root for.

AL West

El Hombre has a new zip code, but he's still the best in the
business.

1. Los Angeles (90-72) - Albert Pujols, plus that rotation of Weaver, Haren, Wilson, and Santana, means the Angels are the new favorite in the West. And that budding rivalry with Texas is going to be fun to watch. 

2. Texas (88-74)* - Call me crazy, but the addition of Yu Darvish doesn't do anything for me. I don't think he's better than CJ Wilson. The Angels passed the Rangers over night in the West.

3. Oakland (68-94) - A couple of years ago, it looked like they were building the kind of staff that could keep them in races for years. And then they traded them all away. Remind me again why Hollywood made a movie about Billy Beane?

4. Seattle (64-98) - Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley might be future superstars for the Mariners. But they're still going to need a lot of other talented hitters to find any semblance of an offense in Seattle.

*Denotes Wild Card

I hesitate to give World Series pick, in lieu of the fact that it's hard enough to just pick a division winner. As always, however, it will come down to whatever team can ride a hot finish into the playoffs. The one thing that could be different this year is that the Wild Card teams will have already spent their ace in a one game playoff. That makes a huge difference for some teams. But it is rare that you ever see the best team in either league win it all, and that follows suit again this year. I like strong rotations in the playoffs, though. Give me the Angels, as Albert thumbs his nose at the Cardinals, winning a World Series away from St. Louis.

2012 Reds Season Preview + NCAA Final Four

Before I get to a long awaited preview of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds, I've got to make a few comments and predictions for today's Final Four.

Pitino's defense must be ready tonight.
AP Photo/Ed Reinke

Kentucky and Louisville will be as interesting as a game as we will see on this stage. Two storied programs, two storied rivals, and two coaches who hate each other. It's beautiful. And two things will happen tonight. Either Kentucky will show its poise, strength, and talent, and run the Cardinals out of the gym; or Louisville's pressure defense will wreak havoc and force a close game (note that I'm not saying the Cards will win). If there's one coach in America who can get his team up for the challenge of playing the best team in the country on this stage, it's Rick Pitino. For my money, he's a Hall of Famer and one of the best coaches in the history of college basketball. I'm biased, because he's always been my favorite coach, but there's not a coach in the country I would take over him. No one gets more out of his kids every season, or overachieves every season, than Louisville and Pitino. So, I won't be surprised if the Cards dog the Cats for 40 minutes and give them hell all night long.

On the other side, though, I would love to watch Kentucky lose. I've never liked the Cats, whether that's because of their obnoxious fans, or that I've always been partial to Louisville. It doesn't help that I think they treated Tubby Smith poorly, which is unfair because he is a great coach and a great man. And they've sold their soul to the devil in John Calipari. Make no mistake - Coach Cal will move on in the next 5 years from Kentucky, probably to North Carolina if/when Roy Williams hangs it up. He'll never stay put, and will always try to stay a step or two ahead of the NCAA and their investigations. There's a reason his Final Fours have been vacated at UMass and Memphis, and Cal was nowhere to be found when it happened.

As you can imagine, I'd really like to see Louisville pull the upset. Mainly since it's a no win situation for Calipari. If you win, well, you were expected to win - and now you better win it all. You lose, you will be remembered forever as the guy who lost in the Final Four to arch-rival Louisville with a vastly superior team. Ouch. Nonetheless, UofL doesn't have the weapons to match up with UK. For the Cards to win, they're going to have to hit a lot of outside shots, since Anthony Davis will be waiting in the lane for them all night. If Kyle Kuric plays like he did against UC the first time (0-11, 4 points) Louisville is in trouble. They desperately need him to have a big game. Kidd-Gilchrist will shut him down, though. Kentucky 79, Louisville 65.

Deshaun Thomas has been unstoppable in the tourney.
Getty Images/Jim Rogash

The Ohio State and Kansas game will be the real game of the night. It doesn't have the same ring as Kentucky-Louisville, but it is a matchup of two fine programs that are at or near the top of college basketball today. This isn't he most talented Jayhawk team, though. They are loaded on experience, but Ohio State has far too many weapons - starting with the explosive Deshaun Thomas who will take over the game. If Jared Sullinger struggles against Thomas Robinson, Ohio State could be in trouble. But I don't see that happening. Ohio State 68, Kansas 65.

That sets up a matchup on Monday night between the best team in the country, and the only team that I thought (as of last weekend) that could give them a good game. Nonetheless, I don't see any way that Ohio State pulls the upset. They'd have to play a near perfect game. The Buckeyes will keep it close, but UK is too talented. Kentucky 70, Ohio State 60. And the party will be on in Lexington and Rupp Arena, until the NCAA asks them to take the banner down in two years the record books are wiped clean.

BTW if you are a Chris Mack or a Xavier fan, I recommend this read. It's....interesting, to say the least.

---

2012 Cincinnati Reds Season Preview

Much of the Reds' hopes this year lie in Latos' right arm.
AP Photo

Starting Pitching: Everyone thought the Reds were loaded in the rotation going into last year, and everyone was wrong. The inability of Edinson Volquez to re-emerge as an ace led to him being shipped out, and now the Reds will put their hope and faith on the right arm of Mat Latos, who was 14-10 with a 2.92 ERA two years ago. Last year, he struggled some coming back from injury, but managed a respectable 3.47 ERA for a horrible San Diego team. He averages about a strikeout an inning, which will come in handy at GABP. But they're going to need that 3.57 career road ERA to hold up. If he can post that at home this year, the Reds will probably be happy with the 24 year old. Making the Opening Day start is Johnny Cueto, who emerged as the ace last season, after starting just 24 games. He posted a stunning 2.31 ERA and a nice, tidy 1.09 WHIP. No one expects him to duplicate those numbers, but if he's around the 3.00 mark for ERA, Cueto will be a steady option. They need 200 innings out of him, though. And no one knows if his shoulder issues from last year will re-emerge. The number three option is Bronson Arroyo, mainly because of his salary. He was arguably the worst pitcher in the majors last season, after going 9-12 with a 5.07 ERA and 46 homers surrendered. If he doesn't find a way to return to his 14 win form that Reds fans are used to, it will be another long summer. The last two spots in the rotation are a toss up between Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, and Aroldis Chapman. Mr. 105 should get a spot, particularly after a strong spring (18 K's and 2 BB's in 17 innings with a 2.12 ERA). Neither Bailey nor Leake has been particularly impressive - and Bailey has been lit up (20 hits in 14 2/3 innings). However, Bailey is out of options and the Reds don't want to lose him. That means he probably starts in the rotation, since he takes too long to warm up to come out of the 'pen. Leake probably gets shipped out to AAA for a couple of weeks, as his bullpen experiment won't work - he's a rhythm guy who needs to work every five days. Grade: B

Bullpen: A season ending injury to closer Ryan Madson hurts but is not devastating. Unlike most people, however, I think closers are not valued enough. If you've got a good one, good night, see you tomorrow. Ask the Yankees how valuable Mariano Rivera has been. And Ryan Madson was a good one. Now, the Reds enter the season with a question mark at that position, as 8th inning man Sean Marshall (who is as good as it gets as a lefty set up man) transitions into that role. With Nick Masset on the mend, the Reds turn to Logan Ondrusek, Bill Bray, Jose Arredondo, and Sam LeCure will fill out the majority of the bullpen and the 8th inning. Jeff Francis and who ever doesn't make the rotation will likely complete the pitching staff. It's just a shame how much the loss of one guy has complicated a bullpen that looked like it could be the best in the league. Grade: B

Catcher: Rookie Devin Mesoraco will team with veteran Ryan Hanigan to form a nice tandem. Hanigan is a pitcher's catcher all the way, but has turned himself into very nice offensive weapon. He hit .267 with 6 homers and 31 RBIs and a .356 OBP in 266 ABs last season, so we know he is a viable option. Mes, meanwhile, has struggled this spring, hitting just .222, with little to no power. And in 50 at bats last season, he hit just .180 at the big league level. I don't expect him to have a good offensive season this year. I'll be surprised if he hits more than 15 homers or better than .250. He seems to be focused on the pitching staff as of now, which I'm okay with. Devin has time to develop into an offensive force. How Dusty splits these two guys' ABs will be interesting, though. The myth is that Baker loves his vets, but we know he has stuck with Stubbs and Bruce through tough times. He also clearly favored Cozart for a short time last year when he came up (before the injury). The hope is Dusty gives Mesoraco the majority of the playing time. Grade: B-

Which version of Rolen will we see? 2010? Or 2011?
AP Photo/Al Behrman

Corner Infielders: Joey Votto and Scott Rolen have both been All Stars for the past two seasons (though Rolen was merely a replacement this past year, and had no business being there) and neither have anything to prove. Rolen is one of the best defensive third baseman in the history of the game, and only his lingering shoulder issues have prevented him from being a sure-fire Hall of Famer. He claims his shoulder feels better than it has in 5 years, which is good news. His lack of power last year was stunning, after he slugged 20 in 2010. He hit .325 this spring, with just one homer, but his power will come back as the year goes on. The important statistic was that he had nearly as many walks this spring (7) as he did all last year (10). If he trusts his shoulder and hands, Scotty will be fine. And they need that. For at least 120 games. If I need to talk about Joey Votto at all, then you shouldn't be reading this. He's the best first baseman in the National League, and will start at that position in the All Star game. Votto is poised to best his 2010 MVP season, and add to his impressive resume for free agency in two years. Grade: A-

Middle Infielders: Brandon Phillips is in a contract year, and Zack Cozart plays with a chip on his shoulder. That's a good sign for this team. I expect Phillips to build off of his huge season last year, and put together a banner year at the leadoff spot. He hit .300 with 18 homers last year, and his numbers will be around there again. Plus, he'll collect his 3rd career Gold Glove award, and will parlay all of this into a nice contract. Whether that's with the Reds or some other team is yet to be seen. Cozart impressed in his 11 games last year, which is far too small of a sample size. But he was the Reds best hitter this spring, batting .392. He won't come near that number in the regular season, but he might be a favorite for rookie of the year. Look for him to become the rock the Reds have been missing at short for years. Grade: A-

Stubbs has been whiffing a lot more than he's
been slugging in his short career.
AP Photo/Al Behrman

Outfielders: Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey would be the envy of any team wishing to cover a lot of ground in their outfield. And they all have the potential to hit in the heart of any order. Bruce began to live up to his building with 32 homers and 97 batted in during the 2011 season. He made the All Star team, but much of his numbers were built on a torrid May where he won the player of the month award. If he can be consistent for close to 6 months, the Reds will have a dangerous duo in him and Votto. There may not be a more talented player on the team than Stubbs. There also may not be a more frustrating player than Stubbs. He struck out a stunning 205 times in 604 at bats last year. That number can't repeat itself. His lack of consistent production or ability to find a spot in the lineup was also maddening. A year after performing well in the 7th slot, Dusty moved him to leadoff, where he surged, then slumped. After that, he never got it together. This year Stubbs will be back in the 7th spot of the lineup, so the Reds will be relying on him to flash more of that 20+ homer power. Heisey and Ryan Ludwick will make up an interesting platoon situation in left field. Whoever hits will take over the spot, but maybe not. Dusty never settled on him last year, despite strong play at times. If Ludwick can capture any where near his 37 homer season from a few years ago in St. Louis, he will take over left field - and probably the cleanup spot. Grade: B

Bench: Miguel Cairo will lead the charge off the bench again, along with former Phillie Wilson Valdez. Neither strike fear in the heart of an enemy, but Valdez can hit more than Paul Janish, and Cairo is a leader in the clubhouse. And he did hit 8 homers last year. He will be key in spelling Scott Rolen. Valdez can play shortstop and around the infield, which provides a little more flexibility off the bench for Dusty. The key will be who wins the 25th roster spot. Juan Francisco or Todd Frazier? Francisco is out of options, and has tantalizing talent (he hit a ball out of GABP last year). He also is maddeningly inconsistent (is that a pattern with this team?) and hit just .184 in the spring. His four homers are certainly nice, though, and he would provide left handed pop off the bench late in games. Frazier, though, blasted 5 homers and drove in 12 runs over the spring, while batting a respectable .280. He can play 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and the corner outfield spots. That's versatility that Francisco doesn't have. And it makes him the favorite to make the team. Sending out Francisco though makes it risky that some other team will grab him off waivers. If necessary, the Reds could ship Leake out to AAA, and play with 14 position players for a couple of weeks, then bring Leake back up.

Note: As of Sunday April 1st, Juan Francisco has been traded to the Braves for right handed reliever J.J. Hoover.  Grade: B

---

In order for another another celebration like this, the Reds
are going to need a lot to go right.
Getty Images

Final Outlook: The Reds are a balanced team offensively, and have a lot of nice pitchers. But there are a lot of 'ifs' that surround this team. I was extremely positive going into Spring Training, but have felt uneasy as we've gotten closer to April 5th. Milwaukee has far less questions than the Reds do, which makes them the favorites in my eyes. I don't doubt the talent of this team, but I don't like relying on aging veterans to have bounce back seasons, or young players to finally break out when they haven't over the last few years. Nonetheless, I'd put money on this team playing in October. It just may not be as division champs. But if you're looking for a prediction on division standings, you're going to have to wait a few days. Final Grade: B/B+

Gearing Up for the Season; And March Madness

Goodyear Ballpark

Lucky for you the fact that I don't have any homework over Spring Break gives me the chance to blog again. Exciting, I know. I won't make any promises about the consistency of my writing. I'll try, but I've said that before. I do, however, have plans to upgrade and change the blog a bit. Stay tuned, it'll become more focused on Cincinnati sports as a whole, instead of just the Reds. Cause writing about just one team, even if it's the team you live and die with, gets old. But I wish I was in Goodyear again this year. Really, really miss the desert right about now.

First, since this is, for now, supposed to be a Reds blog, I guess I'll talk about the Reds. Though I plan on doing some sort of season preview, here's my keys to the season:

1. Scott Rolen

   Most will probably disagree with me on this, but he's the most important player on the team. They win when he is in the lineup, and they lose when he isn't. It's that simple. If his shoulder is strong, and he can hit .275 with 15 homers and play gold glove defense, the Reds will be in the hunt. They need 120 games out of him, though. And that's 120 healthy games. Now, the key is to keep him fresh in August and September, unlike 2010, when he basically disappeared - especially in October.

2. 

   The Reds need Arroyo to return to form. (Joe Robbins/Getty
   Images)

   Bronson Arroyo

   They need him to win 14-17 games. Generally, that has been the norm for him in Cincinnati. Not last year when he was arguably the worst pitcher in the league (Edinson Volquez makes a strong case though too). If he stinks, Latos and Cueto can only make up for so much. Let's face it - those guys, Leake, and Bailey are still pretty much question marks. We can expect one of them to be good, two to be average, and one to be disappointing. That means Arroyo has to be good. He has a track record, now he's gotta live up to it. Good news is, he was clocked at 88, 89 mph yesterday. That's up from the 85, 86 he was at last year. That couple miles of hour could make all the difference.

3. Up the Middle

   The Reds will start (probably) rookies at two important positions: Zack Cozart at short, and Devin Mesoraco at catcher. Both of them need to prove they can play here at the big leagues quickly. I think both will be solid players for years for the Reds, but I think Cozart is going to have the immediate impact. He seems like he's the type of kid that's ready to take on the challenge of the majors, offensively and defensively. It was only 11 games last year, but he played well in his call up. I think Cozart will hit somewhere around .280 with 15-20 bombs. Mesoraco, however, I think will struggle in his debut. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit in the .220 range, honestly. Mes is probably more focused on the pitching staff and getting in sync with them, rather than working on his offense. No worries, we know that offense will be there. And he will be an offensive force in a year or two, just not this year.

4. Someone has to have a career year

   The Reds need a break out year from someone. We all know Joey Votto will put up MVP numbers, and in a contract year, Brandon Phillips will have an All Star season. But someone else needs to have a career year to help this team reach the playoffs. Whether that's Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, etc., someone has to break out. I think Bruce is poised for an MVP type season. If he can get back to what he has done in the past, taking the ball the other way, I think Jay can be ridiculously good. He hit 32 homers last year and drove in 97 runs. So he's close, but the majority of those numbers came in May when no one could get him out. This could be the year everyone has been waiting for from Jay - 40+ homers and 100+ RBIs. He just needs to be more consistent.

5. Johnny Cueto

   Not worried about Mat Latos. I honestly believe he will put up similar numbers as to what he had in San Diego, or better. I think he will develop into the ace. I'm just worried Cueto's year was a fluke. I think he's a solid top of the rotation pitcher. But he was fairly lucky last year. That usually doesn't repeat itself. I don't expect him to put up a 2.32 ERA again. But I think it will be in the low threes. That should be acceptable. The Reds just can't afford for him to regress.

---

If I hear anything more about the bounty stuff going on in the NFL, I might be sick. Honestly, Gregg Williams should be relieved of his duties in St. Louis. After what he did in Washington and New Orleans... disgraceful. And now we learn that Jeff Fisher's Tennessee Titans teams may have been involved with bounties. This is SpyGate, times twenty.

Yep, that looks weird. (arizonasports.com)

Where does Peyton end up? Everyone keeps saying Miami, Washington, Arizona, New York (Jets), or Tennessee/Houston. I think everyone thinks he will go to Miami, since they have the money and an attractive market. Plus they have Brandon Marshall, a decent defense, and could add a receiver (Reggie Wayne anyone?). Oh, not to mention the NFL would salivate over the idea of two Brady-Manning games a year. And Arizona is attractive, because of Larry Fitzgerald, and the success with Kurt Warner. That's where I want him to go, to recreate that high flying offense in the desert. But Peyton is going to want a place where he can win a championship. That place is Houston, even if Matt Schaub is there. Honestly, Manning or Schaub? No brainer. Plus, Peyton gets to stick it to the Colts and Irsay twice a year. Gotta love that.

By the way, John Elway, if you really don't like Tim Tebow, here's your chance. Everyone in Denver will rebel if you cut Tebow. But if you cut Tebow, and sign Peyton Manning, I think people will forget about Tim. Again, Tebow or Manning? No brainer. Just a suggestion, if you really want to dump Tebow.

And Colts fans, don't be upset or sad. You're getting Andrew Luck. You'll be fine in two or three years, simply because this is an entire rebuilding process. Luck won't win this coming year, or the year after that. But he will win. Just be thankful your star quarterback never actually quit on his teammates and his franchise.

---

The big guy is key to any type of an
XU run. (Bob Stevens/
MusketeerMadness.com)

Love this time of the year. Normally. I mean I still do, I'm just used to my Xavier Musketeers having a tournament spot sewed up by now. Being on the bubble is not something I'm used to. And Friday's game against Dayton scares me. If XU couldn't handle Dayton at UD Arena, and needed overtime to beat them in a dramatic game at Cintas, why can they win on a neutral court? Somehow, someway, I think they win. Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons have been frustratingly inconsistent. But the fact they can both go off for 20+ any given game, and that Kenny Frease is finally playing like he isn't made out of cardboard, gives Xavier a chance. Yikes. Never though I'd admit that Frease is a key to any potential NCAA run. A veteran team that doesn't want their season to end can be a dangerous team. It's worked out before for Xavier. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle twice. Doubt it. But I will take my Muskies over UD: Xavier 75, Dayton 70.

Long gone are the team-oriented days, where
guys like Stanley Burrell led. (rivals.com)

I will say this, though. I'm sick of hearing about the fight, and the opposite directions UC and Xavier went in. I get it, it happened. But stop, please. Chris Welsh and Thom Brennaman were talking about it during a Reds Spring Training game on Monday. Why? Yes, Cincinnati banded together after the fight. But I'm here to tell you that Xavier would be 19-11 whether that fight had occurred or not. It's simple. They don't have a leader. The thing that has made Xavier so good for years is senior leadership. Dante Jackson, Jason Love, B.J. Raymond, Josh Duncan, Stanley Burrell, David West, Romain Sato, Lionel Chalmers, Justin Doellman, Justin Cage, etc. All of those guys were consummate professionals on the court. Even in their struggles, they were leaders. They were the glue to Xavier's teams. The Musketeers don't have that anymore. Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease failed as leaders this year. So, Xavier, as talented as they are, just didn't have the leadership. Some of that is on Mack, but he doesn't have a player in the locker room that can be his voice. Xavier's fall has nothing to do with a fight, a bad press conference, or zipping anybody up. They didn't lose any mojo. They just never had a leader. Play the games against Purdue, Butler, Miami, and Vanderbilt again, and there's a good chance they lose those close games. Most of those wins were plain luck. Things went their way. Nine out of ten times, they would've lost those games. They just happened to win them.

Cronin is laughing at his doubters now. (Joshua Bickel/
columbiatribune.com)

As for the Cats, the fact Mick Cronin didn't win coach of the year in the Big East means people need to get a reality check. He took a program in '06 that was on the brink of irrelevancy, and a team this year that was in danger of falling apart. Now, they're the fourth seed in the Big East tournament, playing Georgetown today. No coach has done more with less. And he deserves it after several bad years, and how hard UC fans have come down on him. That, I don't understand. I'll take Cronin over Mack every day of the week. I think UC survives today in Madison Square Garden: Cincinnati 64, Georgetown 62.

Anyways, where does Cincinnati end up seeded in the NCAA tournament? I mean, we know they're going, unless you're completely off your rocker. They're one of the four best teams in one of the toughest conferences (sorry folks, the Big East is a little down this year in my opinion) in the country. They own wins over Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, and UConn. Good enough for me. Yep, there's some bad losses, but they're still a tournament team. Sports is a 'what have you done for me lately?' world, and the Cats have been nails lately, other than a bad loss at USF (who, for my money, is not a tournament team). Depending on how deep of a run they make in the Big East tournament, I think they're any where from a 6 to 9 seed.

Now, I'll leave you with this beauty from Charlie Coles. The man retired this week, which is a shame, since you won't find a more genuine coach or man on this planet. Good luck Coach.

Forget About the Reds; Let's Talk Bengals' Playoffs

I enjoyed talking about things other than Reds baseball so much last week that I decided to try it again! This won't become the focus of the blog, but during the down time of offseason, why not?

First off, my obligatory thoughts on the Reds. For whatever reason, I'm not excited about this season, yet. Normally, I'm pumped and ready for baseball season right now. Usually that's because the Bengals are irrelevant. So maybe that's the difference. But last year was such a let down, there's just something missing. Maybe it's because I can see the window of opportunity closing quickly on this team, and I don't want to be caught when the window slams. I just see BP not having a contract extension, and knowing that Votto will be leaving in 2 years, and that two of my favorite players, Arroyo and Rolen, are probably on their last legs...it's kinda depressing. Sue me if I sound negative, but is Cueto, Latos, and Leake better than Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum? Or Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia? I see the Reds having to slug their way to a division title/playoff appearance. I don't like the idea of that. Mainly because pitching wins. And the depth we all thought the Reds had in their pitching, it's not there. Just sayin'.

Someone get an APB out on Kenny Frease. Where
has the senior gone?//The Enquirer

As for basketball, really, really disappointed in my Xavier Musketeers. It borders on disgust, actually. I'm tired of seeing the blank expressions on Tu Holloway's face. Where's this team's toughness? They left it on the court after the fight apparently, because they never knew what toughness was in the first place. I liked the attitude that this team had in that it was willing to start a fight. But they took that literally. Maybe a cupcake schedule in the A10 will get this team back in gear. UC's easy schedule certainly helped them. I still think the Muskies can make a deep NCAA run. I liken this team to the days of Chalmers, Sato, and Myles, the team that took Duke to the wire in the Elite 8. They lost to Ball State, Iowa State, Duquesne (twice), Richmond, George Washington, and Dayton. Then they thumped an undefeated and #1 St. Joe's by 20. They beat Louisville, and a Mississippi St. team (whom they lost to by 12 earlier in the year) by 15. And Texas by 8. They lost to Duke in a classic by 3. That team put it together on the strength of their guards and their senior big man, after being 2-5 at one point in the A10. Guard play wins in the tournament. It can again for Xavier. It starts tonight against La Salle, where I think XU makes a statement: Xavier 87, La Salle 60.

Mick Cronin might be the Big East Coach of
the Year when all is said and done.//
USPRESSWIRE/Charles LeClaire

Now, before any UC fan jumps on me, the Cats beat Wright State (8-8), Radford (3-13), Arkansas Pine-Bluff (1-13), and Chicago State (0-14). Not impressive. They beat an Oklahoma team that was 9-1 at the time, and came back from down 12 in the second half to do it. But Oklahoma has beaten who? Arkansas? Washington St.? They lost to the A10's St. Louis by 20 and a good Mizzou team by 38. Yes, the Sooners are an excellent rebounding team. They're not a tournament team. UC shot 27.9% for the game. So they won with, heart? Heart and team chemistry are important, obviously, considering that's something Xavier doesn't have. But, there's a certain amount of talent involved too. OU isn't a talented team. The Cats won't beat another team shooting 27.9%. My doubts about this team, however, changed when they went into Pitt and beat the ranked Panthers. Nonetheless, this is a Pitt team that has already lost 4 games, and 3 straight. They aren't Jamie Dixon's normal tough team. Remember, Long Beach State and Wagner also beat Pittsburgh on their home court. How much stock do we place in the win? I get that a win is a win. But you can understand my skepticism. If the Cats beat Notre Dame tonight, in front of what I'm hearing will be a sold out or near sold out 5/3rd, then I'll be a little more inclined to think this team is for real. I won't dismiss what they've done, though. It's impressive how they rallied. I need to see more though. And I think it starts tonight: Cincinnati 67, Notre Dame 66.

Gotta love sight of a sold out PBS.//The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

Tough home loss for the Bengals against Baltimore, in a game that ended up not mattering. Both teams played tight, which meant big plays would win the game. And all three big plays broke the Ravens' way. Ray Rice's two long runs and Jermaine Gresham's fumble. Some will say the Bengals looked like they were playing not to lose. I disagree. This was an offense, being run by a rookie quarterback, with a rookie receiver as his top target, and a rookie coordinator, that was trying to feel its way through a big game. These Bengals haven't played in a game like this in a while. If Carson Palmer is under center, and Bob Bratkowski is calling plays (God forgive me for bringing up bad memories), the Bengals take risks. They knew the Ravens. These Bengals don't, especially these Ravens, you know, the ones with something big to play for. I also wonder whether or not the Jets' loss earlier in the day had any affect on this team. It meant they were already halfway home to the playoffs. Did they let off the gas? I doubt it - at least I hope they didn't.

I think that game was entirely the case of an entire team that wasn't ready for this stage. It was a good measure of this team, especially heading to Houston this week. I think they'll play much better, simply because they're facing an inferior opponent, starting either a rookie quarterback, or a turnover machine at quarterback. But Sunday, there was a lot going on. Forget the penalties and bad calls by the refs. I actually loved Gruden's game plan. It was simple, manage the game for Dalton, protect him, and give him easy throws.  It also meant pounding the run with a combo of Scott and Benson, while getting the ball to Gresham. Throw in Shipley for next year and I think we will see much of the same. A little surprised the Bengals didn't take some shots, but I think the wind, AJ's bum shoulder, and the Ravens sliding a safety over top of him probably explains that. The fourth quarter really showed me something. The Bengals wear teams down. They did it to Baltimore earlier in the year, and to Pittsburgh. They just didn't win, because they haven't quite learned how. They sure can come back though. The Ravens' defense was gassed in the fourth quarter.

The league should get used to seeing a lot of big plays from
this guy. //The Enquirer/Cara Owsley

16 points won't win you a ton of games. It does Sunday if the Bengals' defense holds up their end of the bargain a little better. Hold Baltimore to field goals on those drives, or nothing at all, by stopping Rice, and the game looks different. Also consider the Bengals and refs gave the Ravens 25 yards on penalties on that 80 yard drive at the end of the first half. There isn't a whole lot separating these two teams right now, nor is there a lot of difference between Dalton and Flacco. Pittsburgh and Baltimore fans will wake up in a year or two and see Dalton and the Bengals ahead in the division. And they will wonder what happened. Paul Daugherty has described them as ships passing in the night, and I couldn't agree more. Think about it. This team was supposed to win 2-5 games. They won 9. And that was with a retooling offense that hasn't tapped its potential, and a retooling defense. Let's face it, the Bengals are still missing another running back, receiver, one or two offensive lineman, Keith Rivers, Leon Hall, another corner, and two safeties. That's a lot. That defensive backfield is terrible. And they're going to the playoffs. Appreciate this team. They nearly beat Baltimore twice and Pittsburgh once with a team that is rebuilding. They are rebuilding and winning at the same time. That's unique.

The one man Bengals fans hate more than Mike Brown will
make his return to Cincinnati next fall.//AP

And for those who say the Bengals won't be good next year, simply because they played a weak schedule this year, think again. Cincinnati, with a good draft and a smart offseason, will win at least 9 games again next year. Plus, their schedule isn't exactly a back breaker. Here's their home games: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, New York Giants, Dallas, Oakland, San Diego, and Miami. Road: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, Washington, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Denver, and Jacksonville. Is that really so difficult? I can see 10 wins in there. We know they can beat Cleveland and Jacksonville. They will play tough against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, maybe splitting. The rest? New York, Dallas, Oakland, San Diego, Miami, Washington, Kansas City, and Denver are all winnable games. Philly is the toughest of them, considering they should be more focused next year, though that isn't a guarantee. I don't see Cincinnati folding next year. A second good year under their belt, and the Bengals could be ready for the tough first place schedule Pittsburgh and Baltimore face year in and year out.

Speaking of the schedule, how many prime time games do the Bengals get next year? I'm thinking three. A pair of Sunday nighters - at Baltimore and at Philadelphia. And I think they get a Monday night game in Cincinnati. That one is obvious. You know ESPN will want to have the game when Carson Palmer makes his return to Cincinnati. Book it. That's going to be an unbelievable night in this city.

Houston, we have a rematch. //The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

And, in my opinion, the Bengals just became a dangerous team in the playoffs. Here's why: they have a capable quarterback, a big time play maker at receiver, and a solid defense. They are the most complete team in the playoffs, in the sense of being able to make plays with their passing and running game, while playing good defense. Granted, it doesn't mean Super Bowl for this team, but think about it: New England, Green Bay, and New Orleans can't play defense. Pittsburgh and Baltimore now struggle on offense. Bengals are dangerous, but they have to throw the ball. Part of me believes they will continue the 'control the clock and game' offense, but I think there is a good chance that the Bengals toss that out and let everything hang loose. That makes them dangerous. Also, consider that Andy Dalton had a better passer rating against Cleveland, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh when he faced them a second time. Zimmer will find a way to shut down that running game and make TJ Yates beat them. Bengals 20, Texans 17.

It's time to trust Dalton to do what he does best: win.//The
Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

I know that sets up a game in New England. If the Bengals throw the ball, instead of dedicating their time to the run, you think they've got a shot? I do. I don't know if they can win, but if they do, it sets up a likely rematch with Pittsburgh or Baltimore. I never count on a team being able to beat a team 3 times in a season. It's difficult to do. Could we really see the Bengals in the Super Bowl? No, probably not. But it's fun to think about. And it's fun to think about, because the Bengals have nothing to prove. They aren't supposed to be here. They can go out and have fun on Saturday and beyond. All those other teams feel pressure to win. Cincinnati doesn't. That alone makes them dangerous. They are happy to be in the playoffs, and everything else is gravy. So it's time to unleash Dalton, Green, and Simpson. Put your faith in the right arm of Dalton, and see if the Bengals can find a little magic from their second #14.

The Ravens are going to need more than a pedestrian effort
out of Flacco to win a Super Bowl.//The Enquirer/Michael E.
Keating

Meanwhile, what did Sunday's game say about Baltimore's faith in Joe Flacco? I understand the weather, but the Bengals still threw the ball 44 times. Would you rather have Flacco or Dalton, right now? Give me Andy. He has a better number one receiver and a better tight end, but Flacco has everything else - better offensive line, more depth at wide out and tight end, better running game, and defense. They put up almost identical numbers this season. Dalton is a rookie. Flacco is in his fourth year. The Ravens asked Flacco to manage the game Sunday not because of the weather, but because they didn't trust him to win the big game. Terrell Suggs said that was Ravens' football, running the ball and playing good defense. News flash: when you run into Pittsburgh, New England, and New Orleans/Green Bay in the playoffs, you better trust Flacco to throw the ball. You're going to have to. If they can't trust him to beat an inexperienced and young Bengals team, how can they trust him to win the Super Bowl? Answer: they can't.

Looking to 2012; Other Thoughts on Sports

Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends.

I know it's been a long time coming, but I really haven't had the time to keep this blog running. Between 18 credit hours this fall semester, covering Xavier's basketball team, and working a job, there's been little extra time on my plate. Nonetheless, it felt necessary to do a holiday-type blog post, I guess. But, for the first time ever, I'm going to comment on some sports related items, other than Reds baseball. Here goes nothing.

Freshman Dez Wells has been sens-
ational for the Muskies this year.
/ Bob Stevens

First, on what's become my other specialty: Xavier basketball. Check out this website for some good stuff (I've heard their lead guy is pretty good). Don't check out of here yet, UC fans, I'll get to the Cats. Not at all surprised by the Muskies' fall. They came into the Crosstown Shootout with something to prove after being embarrassed by the Bearcats last year. Instead of relishing in the huge win, Xavier was embarrassed again, this time by the aftermath. I won't go into it, that'd be beating a dead horse. You want my opinion on that, go here. But I think Xavier was trying to prove their toughness, and it blew up in their face. Now, they pick up the pieces, and are trying to figure out how to be tough while playing basketball, not trash talking. I mean, that's what everyone wants to see, right? Don't think they are done, though. Not by a long shot. 

As for UC, I've been impressed (somewhat) with their transformation. And sue me if I watch UC basketball from time to time, even though I am a Xavier student and fan. I enjoy the sport of college basketball and love this town, not just my team. It's not like I support them - my loyalty will always be with Xavier. But my hatred in sports is reserved for the Pittsburgh Steelers and the St. Louis Cardinals. Nonetheless, I digress. I thought UC would fall apart without Yancy Gates. Instead, their four guard offense has exploded. Granted, they haven't played anyone, and Oklahoma tonight will be a good test. And I'm interested to see how they look when Gates and Mbodj come back. If Cronin is smart, he'll use Gates like Mack uses Frease (not that he's getting great results out of him, but whatever), using him for 20-25 minutes a game, while not interrupting the flow of the rest of the offense.

Can't wait for UC's bowl game against Vanderbilt. Really want to see Zach Collaros play one more time, and see Aaron Rodgers' little brother for Vandy. I was at the UC game a couple of years ago when Collaros stepped in for Tony Pike (one of my favorite college QBs) and shredded UConn in that shootout. Unbelievable. Good luck to him.

Meanwhile, the team my loyalty supposedly lies with, Notre Dame, plays tonight. Is it bad that I have to keep looking up who they play, or even to find out what the Irish's record is? I lost interest when they collapsed against Michigan. It's getting old, really old. And that's coming from a Bengals and Reds fan. Think about that. I want Jon Gruden in South Bend. The real game to watch tonight is Baylor-Washington. Really want to see Heisman winner RGIII play.

Jerome Simpson's unreal acrobatics from Saturday. / The
Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

How big is that loss to Houston for the Bengals now? That would have meant that Sunday's game could have been about playing for the 5 seed, instead of just getting in. Nonetheless, I'm proud of the Red Rifle, Adriel Jeremiah Green, Jumpin' Jerome Simpson, and the no name defense. They've been fun to watch all year long. And I'm glad the fans put aside their difference with Mike Brown for a day to support a team that deserves it. I think Green and Simpson both make big plays against that aging Baltimore secondary, while Gresham comes up big underneath. Dalton doesn't turn the ball over, while Zimmer's defense harasses Flacco, like it has done the last 2 years or so. Bengals 24, Ravens 13. 

This franchise has been tortured enough.

If they win Sunday, surely they can win in Houston in the wild card round, right? That would be enormous for this franchise and a team that was picked to be the worst in the NFL. A wild card win sets up a date in Foxboro with Mr. Brady. The way to beat the Pats is the way the G-Men beat them in the Super Bowl in 2008 - with their defensive line putting pressure on Brady. This line can do that, right? I know I'm dreaming, but Flacco and Sanchez took their teams to the AFC Championship their rookie years. Why can't Dalton? He's better now than they were then. Hell, he may be better now than they are now. And things have gone so wrong for this franchise: Greg Cook's shoulder, Joe Montana beating them twice in the Super Bowl, Ki-Jana Carter's knee, Kenny Irons' knee, Carson Palmer's knee and elbow, the fumbled extra point in Denver, the missed 39 yard FG by Graham in the final game of '06, Brandon Stokley's miracle, Chris Henry, and on and on. After years of misery, something went right last Saturday when Early Doucet fell down in the end zone. Is it a change of karma for Cincinnati? 

Mat Latos / J. Meric/Getty Images

Now, for what this blog is really about, the Reds. When it first happened, I was not a fan of the Mat Latos trade. I'm a big Yonder Alonso fan, and liked the potential of Brad Boxberger and Yasmani Grandal. Also, much to my chagrin, I've always been enamored with the potential of Edinson Volquez. After spending a while thinking about it, the trade makes sense. Here's why. The Reds are dead set on the idea that Alonso cannot play left field, or third base (not that this matters, since Rolen and Francisco block him there). That means first base is his only position, and he is obviously not supplanting Votto. That makes him expendable and valuable because of his talent. Grandal was blocked by Hanigan and Mesoraco - let's face it, this kid was never going to play here, because those two aren't going anywhere the next 3+ years. And Boxberger, as talented as he is, is a reliever. And a Triple-A reliever for now. We know Edinson wasn't making this team as a starter, so he was useless. All four guys could not make a drastic impact on this 2012 team. Mat Latos can. That's what I know, look up his stats, the kid can pitch. And it's not just because of Petco Park, either.

Sean Marshall / R. H. Levey/Getty Images

As for the Sean Marshall trade, I'm a little less excited. I really like Travis Wood, because when he's on, he's on. Think July 2010 in Philadelphia. Perfect game into the 9th inning. That kind of on. When he's bad, he's bad, though. And young kids are not going to be consistent. I still don't like the deal though, because I don't like giving up Dave Sappelt. That guy can hit. I don't know if he will ever develop into a good outfielder or a good base stealer, but he can flat out hit. A .500+ batting average in spring training isn't a fluke. The other player, Ronald Torreyes, is a single-A player. Not as concerned about him. But if the Reds can't sign the lefty Marshall to an extension, this is a bad deal. If they get it done, the guy is as good a reliever as there is in the game. He either closes, or sets up for the closer. Speaking of that, who closes? Does Cordero come back? Who's in left? Heisey? I hope so. I don't know if he will hit for average, but he will hit for power. He's as good as Cody Ross, or anyone else on the market. Let him play. 

Say it ain't so, Ryan.

And how about Albert Pujols departing for Anaheim? Good and bad for Cincinnati. It means the division is still wide open - probably even more so, especially since Fielder will most likely leave Milwaukee. Bad for the Reds in the sense that it sets a general market for Votto. Cincinnati can't afford him. Period. Though I think Castellini is gearing up for an offer - Phillips, Rolen, and Arroyo (minus his deferred money) all come off the books by the end of 2013, when Votto hits the market. Signing Carlos Beltran helps the Cardinals, but it makes them more fragile. They will depend a lot on Beltran and Berkman, a pair of aging stars, as well as two injury prone bats in Allen Craig and David Freese. Who knows what they will get from Adam Wainwright returning from Tommy John, or which Carpenter will show up for his starts. It will be interesting this season in the Central, especially with Ryan Braun coming up positive for PEDs, meaning a 50 game suspension. That's awful. I hope it is false, and Brauny is innocent. He's a great young player, and I hope, for the game's sake, that he didn't do it.

I'll leave you with one SI writer's prediction for the World Series (#10).