Wake Me Up, When September Ends

Yup. I just quoted a Green Day song. Sue me. That's how I feel about this season. I'll watch the playoffs, but I can't help but think the Reds should be there. I think the talent is there. Granted, Milwaukee is a very good team, and their unbelievable play over about a month's worth of games left everyone in the dust in the National League Central. Even if the Reds had been able to get on a run, they would not have caught the Brewers. I will not take anything away from the Brewers, because they deserve the division crown. Ryan Braun deserves the MVP. They've been the best team in the division, without a doubt. I'll be rooting for them in the playoffs. But for a Reds team that had such high expectations going into the season, their inconsistent play has been mind-boggling and unacceptable.

Do you still have faith in Dusty?//The Enquirer

Let me preface what I'm about to say with the fact that I like both Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty. Now, I believe in my heart that one of them will not be back next year. Walt's contract is up. Dusty has one year left. The simple answer is to promote someone from within to take over for Jocketty, or just give Walt an extension. We'll see about that. If it came down to Walt or Dusty, who would you take? Personally, I think there are better managers to be had then Dusty. There aren't very many general managers, however, that are better than Walt. I think Dusty is a very good manager, and the players love him. It would be tough for him to go. But it's something that I believe has to happen, which I will get into in just a second. What do you think Bob Castellini would do? Would he choose Walt or Dusty? I'm pretty sure he'd pick Walt. He worked with him in St. Louis. He chose him over Wayne Krivsky, who by all accounts, was not a bad general manager. I don't know if any changes will occur. I am concerned, however, that everyone just assumes Jocketty will be back. This ESPN article makes me even more nervous, especially the way Walt talks about the Cubs. Granted, though this would be the perfect storm for Chicago, I think they'd still be a flop.

Yonder Alonso is a major point of differing philosophies
for Walt and Dusty.//The Enquirer

If Walt is brought back, I believe Dusty could be relieved of his duties. If not in the offseason, I think he'll be fired in May or June if the team struggles. I think Billy Hatcher and Ken Griffey Sr. could be serious candidates for the team, especially if the Reds are looking long term. Chris Speier will leave with Dusty if he gets another job. I don't want to speculate on who other candidates might be, because I honestly have no idea. My gut says that one day Hatch will be a manager, and I think Sr. is being groomed to guide this team in a few years. Nonetheless, back to why I believe there is a significant rift between Dusty and Walt. In January, the Reds signed Fred Lewis and Edgar Renteria. Lewis was picked up to primarily hit leadoff and platoon with Jonny Gomes. Dusty immediately shot that down and said that Jonny was his starting left fielder. And how many at bats has Lewis gotten this year at the leadoff spot? Four. And Edgar was signed with the intention of being able to play around the infield, including playing some third base. Instead, Dusty said that Renteria was uncomfortable playing third, and they wouldn't try him out there. So when Juan Francisco went down, and Scott Rolen became crippled, Renteria couldn't play third. He has played a little second, but Dusty has run him out at short for the majority of the season. And it's been tough to watch. Lastly, there's Yonder Alonso. He was called up with the intention of playing left field. After all, that's where he has played for 60+ games in Louisville. Yet Dusty had practically benched him after three games. It took a Fred Lewis demotion for Yonder to play almost every day. And we've found out he can rake, even if he can't play left field even marginally well. Essentially, I believe there is a difference in philosophy between Dusty and Walt. And if they're not on the same page, this team cannot and will not win.

So how bad has this season gotten? Enough so that I actually have had to look up who the Reds are playing every day, if I even care. I haven't watched a full game in about a month. I haven't been to a game at Great American in longer. You know it's tough when I was done with this team by early to mid-August. The combination of the past two years is what makes baseball such a terrific and altogether depressing sport. When your team survives 162 games like the Reds did last year, it is unbelievably rewarding. It means more to make the playoffs in baseball than in any other sport. But when it takes 4 to 5 months for you to realize your team is a pretender and not a contender, you realize baseball is a harsh, cruel reality. And I think the most difficult part of this season is not that the Reds missed the playoffs, it's that we had such high expectation for them, and we believed they were so talented. They are talented. So what the heck happened?

Where have you gone Bronson?//The Enquirer

It's simple. Being content with what you have and who you are is never enough. The Reds stood pat as teams passed them up. They paid for it. Dearly. I don't expect it to happen again. I do expect this team to improve drastically, and to make a run at the division title next year. I think it will start with the acquisition of a top of the line pitcher to team up with Johnny Cueto. From there, things will play themselves out. Drew Stubbs needs to cut his swing down. Jay Bruce needs to be consistent. The Reds need to find a closer, or bring back Cordero on a one year deal. They need to give Brandon Phillips a contract extension, not just pick up his option. They need a true backup at third base. Whether that is Frazier, Francisco, or someone else, they have to find someone. Counting on Scott Rolen to be healthy is gambling with the fates. Bronson Arroyo has to turn back the clock. Cincinnati needs to install Alonso, Cozart, and Mesoraco as the every day left fielder, shortstop, and catcher, respectively. That's a lot of things the Reds need to do. Here's one more thing: the Reds cannot have another year like this. They've wasted their homegrown talent. For a small market team, that's like pouring out a bottle of water when you've been out in the desert for a week. At the very least this article seems to be an encouraging sign of the offseason to come.

The only things we know for sure are this: Joey Votto is a top three player in baseball and Johnny Cueto will win a Cy Young in the near future. And this team will continue to confound you, me, and every other fan that follows this team. It's how it's been for the past two decades. It's how it will be next year. I just hope I'm not singing the same tune. But as bad as it is and could be, I still have a great deal of pride in this team. Honoring Johnny Bench last Saturday night reminded me of that. There was a time that Cincinnati was home to the best damn baseball team in the history of the game. It doesn't get any better than that. Some people say Reds fans live in the past. They only say that because their past pales in comparison to the Reds'. Nobody other than the Yankees can stand side by side with the Big Red Machine.

Penny for your Thoughts, Mr. Votto

What does Joey want to do?

That's the answer to all of these questions that are swirling on twitter, talk radio, the internet, etc. Will Joey Votto be a Red beyond 2013? Will he even be a Red by then? Or next year? Will he move to left field? Will he re-sign with Cincinnati? Would he accept a contract extension?

Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel

I have previously stated that there is a 50/50 shot that Joey will be a Red, long term. I still stand by that. But, with each passing day, I begin to believe he won't be around. Things don't point in the Reds' favor. Joey said he didn't want to and couldn't think about a long term deal last offseason, and agreed to a three year deal, because he could see himself being here the next three years. We all know that when this contract is up, he will be eligible to test the free agent waters. And he will cost a king's ransom. And he deserves it. Let me sum up what Votto had previously said - essentially, a team controls you for so long at their cost, and then you get to leverage your numbers against the team to get exactly what you want. I don't think Votto is going to ask for a record contract, but he's not going to take a hometown discount. He talked about how Cincinnati is not his home, and how even Toronto is not his home. Florida is. I don't think that means he's going to play for the Florida Marlins. I do think it means Joey will not close a single door.

Votto is as smart and thoughtful a player as I've seen. This will not be an easy decision for him, nor will he rush the decision. I think that means Votto will not sign an extension, simply because it never gives him the chance to explore all of his options. If there is a better deal to be had after 2013 than the one Cincinnati offers, Votto will take it and run. By better deal, I don't think that means more money. If the Toronto Blue Jays do not match Cincy's offer, but come just under it, Joey will sign there. Yes, money is a factor. Votto wants to be paid. If you were at the top of your profession, wouldn't you want to be paid handsomely? That doesn't make him, or anyone else, greedy. It's sensibility. It's also about opportunity, though. I think chance to win in a market that Votto wants to play in is important. Cincinnati, then, is still a possibility. A team like Houston, is obviously not.

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

If Votto will most probably not sign a contract extension, can Cincinnati afford him? It would be foolish to assume Votto will receive anything less than $20 million. And that's on the low end. I don't know how much he'll sign for, or how many years. If I had to guess, I'd say his contract will be close to 6 years and $145 million. That's a lot of money for the Reds to give to Joey. Even if they can sign him for $20 million a season, can the Reds' payroll take that hit? It surely means that Johnny Cueto will not receive an extension beyond his current deal. And that Brandon Phillips will not be a Red. It complicates everything. The Reds' current payroll is a little over $76 million. Let's just say their payroll over the next few years will consistently be in the $80 million range, give or take a few million. One quarter of that goes to Votto. One quarter. The Reds would lose more than they would win over the course of his contract, then. It puts tremendous pressure on the ability to draft and develop exceptionally well. Do you think Cincinnati could bump their payroll to the St. Louis range? Around $100 million? Since 1998, the Cardinals have had an average game attendance under 36,000 just once - in 2003. In that time span, it's the only time they've been under 3 million in attendance for the season, and that was only by some 90,000 fans. Cincinnati hasn't averaged over 30,000 fans per game in a season since 1994, and they did it the year before that, too. Before that, Cincy hasn't averaged over 30,000 since 1978. In the last 33 years, the Reds have averaged 30,000+ fans per game just 3 times. Their highest season attendance in a season 2,629,708 in 1976. They've never drawn more than 3 million fans in a season. And to do that, it would take a little under an average of 37,500 fans per game. To get to the kind of payroll that St. Louis has, that is what it would take attendance-wise. You think the Reds can pull that off?

I want to sign Joey Votto as much as the next Reds fan. But I am also realistic. Votto has value to this team, but not at $20+ million. That's a damn shame, too. Ten years ago, before contracts became ridiculous, the Reds could probably afford him. Not now. How much does it suck that a team can't keep their best player? What if the Oklahoma City Thunder couldn't afford Kevin Durant? Don't you think that would be terrible for the NBA? Votto leaving Cincinnati is terrible for baseball. It's terrible if Pujols leaves St. Louis. And Fielder, Milwaukee. That's the game.

AP Photo

Here's what it comes down to. Looking at the numbers, the Reds can sign Votto. But it leaves little room for error. Realistically, the Reds shouldn't sign Joey past 2013. The exorbitant amount of money he will command is beyond what this team can afford. That means the Reds must maximize Votto's value, starting in the offseason. He will not move to left field, probably because he doesn't want to, but more likely because he shouldn't have to. Alonso is unproven in first, and may not be any better there than he is in left. Votto has become very good at first, and no one knows how he would do in left. You don't swap a question mark for a proven commodity, and then place the commodity in a compromising position. Even considering this could affect the way Votto looks at the Reds. If you thought you might be replaced at your job, don't you think you would be thinking about getting out? This means one thing: trade Yonder Alonso. This is how you maximize Votto's value. The Reds need to find a top of the line starter to match with Cueto and the solid Leake. That means dumping Homer or Wood. Fine. They also need to find a cleanup hitter and commit to Brandon Phillips at leadoff. The hitter would preferably play left field. No one knows if Scott Rolen will be healthy enough to be an impact player next year. Either way, he's probably better suited to hit 6th or 7th, with Stubbs alongside him. Cozart would hit in the two hole. This is how you maximize Votto's value. You solidify the lineup and the team. You do what Milwaukee did this year. Go for broke. You've got two years left with the best player your farm system has produced since Barry Larkin. Making the most of them is critical, which means the Reds must fix their weaknesses.

That is the task Walt Jocketty, or whoever the general manager is in 2012, is assigned with. Solidify the team around Votto, and give this team a shot to win it all in the next two years. If you are not willing to do that, or cannot afford it, then you have to trade Votto. Not before 2013, but before this offseason. You cannot waste a year fooling the fans. Plus, trading Votto with two years left would provide a larger return than if he had just one year. It's a gamble, for sure. But sometimes that is your only choice. Personally, I think the Reds will go for broke. I think Alonso will be traded. I think the Reds will do everything they can to win the division in 2012 and 2013, then let Votto walk. That's how I see this playing out.

AP Photo/Matt Slocum

Lastly, I'm sure you are wondering why I still give Votto a 50/50 shot at staying in Cincinnati. One, I think the Reds could be dumb enough to give him an organizational crippling contract. Two, I think you have to look at the opportunities. Let's eliminate the teams Votto would go to, based solely on having good first basemans: Boston, New York, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and St. Louis (I assume Pujols will stay). Next I will eliminate teams because of their market and money issues: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Cleveland, Seattle, Oakland, Florida, Houston, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, San Diego, and Los Angeles. Finally, those teams whose markets are large enough that they would probably scare Votto away: Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago. That leaves Baltimore, Toronto, Texas, Washington, Cincinnati, Arizona, Colorado, and San Francisco. In all reality, Baltimore, Washington, and Arizona are probably not going to be in the race. They have young players of their own, and probably could not afford Votto. Texas is most likely in the same boat. And with the Tulowitzki contract and Carlos Gonzalez's immense talent, Colorado probably cannot afford him. That leaves Toronto, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. Obviously, Toronto is his hometown, and Cincinnati is where he plays now. I think these are the most logical places for him to go. However, I think San Francisco is a wild card. They're built to win better than Cincinnati or Toronto. They can afford him and their pitching. Payroll isn't as much of an issue, and they can move some pieces around. Votto could live a low key life there. It makes sense.

Penny for your thoughts, Mr. Votto.

The Sad but True Tale

First and foremost, this will be a long post. My bad. I can't help it. So apologies in advance if you continue to scroll down and wonder when in the world the words will stop flowing. Once I get in a groove, I can't really stop. If you hang with me, and read it all. Thank you. If not, here's a preview, and you can click out of the blog once you read this paragraph. I can't stop being a fan, no matter how tough it is. The 2011 season is a blip on the radar, not the 2010 season, though there are some questions concerning 2012. The blame game: Walt or Dusty? Mainly Walt, because Dusty can't make the players hit in the clutch (though he could create a better batting order). We should have seen this season coming, especially with the probable declines of Rolen and Gomes. Good to see the kids up here, but this has become a lost season for the team and the players - one that has a ton of implications on a small market team. There's your preview of what I'm going to discuss, minus details of course. So if you can't stomach the following novel, I bid you adieu. However, for those of you who are technically inclined, I might request that you follow me on Twitter! Yes, I've dabbed into this social network, though I'm not really sure if I will use it much, or if I even like it yet. Follow me if you like @crisfreese.

If only we could turn the clock back...

Now then, to the good stuff. Did you know that Wednesday was the one year anniversary of the Brawl? Seems like almost forever ago, now, doesn't it? I still remember that game, vividly. By far one of the best games I've been to, despite the loss. As we all know, that was the defining moment of the Reds season. Yes, there were many moments from that season that were memorable, but none were as defining as that fight, the shot the Reds took on their home turf, and how they responded. Where was the defining moment this year? That's right, there wasn't one. Lots of fantastic moments, but not one that really let everyone know who the Reds are. Instead, Reds fans have watched as the team has bounced back and forth between wins and losses, with lots of frustration. The team has never gained any traction. At 10 games back, they are not going to catch the Milwaukee Brewers. And this is the toughest thing about watching baseball, and being a baseball fan. For the most part, it's going to take nearly four months for you to decide whether or not your team has a realistic shot of making the playoffs. At this time last year, we knew the Reds did. Now, we know they do not. And it sucks, trust me. If I could have stopped watching this team when they started their slide back in May, I would have. Now, I'm just watching to see some of the new faces, and if the Reds can climb back to .500. Feels like 2004 all over again. Or any other year in the 2000s. No matter how bad this season turns out, I'll be pumped for next year. It's like clockwork. I can't stop. The reward of seeing your team make the playoffs far outweighs all of those bad seasons. I'd do anything to see them in October again this year, even if it meant sitting through another Roy Halladay no hitter. Why? Because at least they have a shot then. You can't win it all until you make it to October. Once you're there, it's a free for all, and anyone can win it. So I'll sit through this wasted year, because I know the Reds have a shot at October next year. Survive the Big 162, and all you need is 11 more wins. So, 2011 sucks, but 2012 could be just as good as 2010. And I have to believe it will be. It's what keeps my love for this game going.

This year has been extremely disappointing. I know that. You know that. Bob Castellini knows that. But as poorly as 2011 turns out, don't toss away 2010. Appreciate that team, but know that it wasn't a fluke. A select few in 2010 were overachievers. That would be Jonny Gomes and Scott Rolen. I include Rolen merely because of his balky shoulder and back, and the surprise that he actually was able to hit last year. We all know that Gomes played over his head. But who else did? Was that a career year for Joey Votto? I don't know. He's still very, very good. But 37 homers? Will he do that again? Other than that, we've seen some guys improve (Cueto, Leake). Some guys stay pretty much the same (Bruce, Stubbs). And some fall of (Wood, Volquez). But for the most part, the Reds are the same as they were last year. What's the difference? Honestly it is Gomes, Rolen, and Bronson Arroyo. In the first half of last year, Rolen and Gomes combined for 28 homers and 117 RBIs. The first half of this year? 16 and 67. Big time drop off. Arroyo is 7-9 with a 5.48 ERA and 32 homers surrendered this year, while he was 17-10 with a 3.88 and 29 homers give up. His ERA is up 1.60. That's also a huge drop off. These guys were veterans on the team who were expected to put up similar numbers as last year. They have largely, and unequivocally, failed. Granted, all of the blame cannot be put on these players. The number one and two starters to start the year have spent as much time in the minors as the majors. Most of the guys the Reds expected to be better than last year haven't gotten better.

Was the Bruce extension the right move? Only time will tell
for Walt Jocketty.

But, we cannot toss just the players under the bus. I have a lot of questions concerning the management of this team. The Reds made critical mistakes in not finding a suitable backup to Scott Rolen. They stood pat in left field, with a guy that you had to presume would take a step back. I also believe they traded down when the essentially swapped Laynce Nix for Fred Lewis, and Edgar Renteria for Orlando Cabrera. They didn't consider finding a veteran starting pitcher. And no, I don't consider the Dontrelle Willis move in that category, because that was a gamble by the Reds. They didn't know he would be this good. And no matter how good he has been, they still could have used an extra arm. This is on Walt Jocketty, not Dusty Baker. The job of the general manager is to analyze the weaknesses and strengths of team, and make moves accordingly within the budget. I know Cincinnati's budget was tight, especially because they are a small market team. That doesn't mean there weren't smart moves to be had. For example, I look at the Milwaukee Brewers. They play in the smallest market in the league. Yet, their GM Doug Melvin managed to acquire a pair of starters who had started on Opening Day 2010. He upgraded the bullpen by acquiring a pair of former All Star closers. Granted, the farm system had to be unloaded to do so, but I still believe Walt could have done something, instead of nothing. I don't consider the "small market" tag to be an issue. The Brewers drew over 3 million fans in 2008, 2009, and will do so in 2011. The Reds have never drawn more than 2.6 million. Does this have to do with the roof over their ballpark? Maybe. However, their fans still have to come out on weekdays when they have school or work in the morning. And they show up. Why can't fans do that in Cincy? Yet, I digress. Walt was also slow on the trigger with in-season upgrades. Zack Cozart arrived months too late. Gomes was dumped far too late. Volquez and Wood were given too many chances. Walt's contract is up after this year. I'm torn between whether I want him back, or not. He's done a lot of good, but he hasn't been as aggressive as he's been in the past. His tenure in Cincinnati will be decided by how the Aroldis Chapman experiment turns out, and how Jay Bruce plays over the length of his contract. Quibble with Dusty's moves and decisions: his overuse of the bullpen, love of veterans who don't have a future on this team, and the untimely decisions with starters. But don't blame it all on him. Walt must should blame, too.

Speedster or slugger? Can't he just be both?

And now, the Reds have to be in the learning process of this season. They messed up this year, and can't afford to next year. It's time to figure some things out. And, unfortunately, we don't know a whole lot about the Reds. Is Chapman a closer or a starter? The Reds will experiment with him in the rotation next year. In order for his contract to be successful, I believe he has to be an ace. I'll settle for a closer, but nothing else. He can't be an average starter, or just a set up man. He has to have an impact on games. Right now, that impact isn't enough. No one knows who Drew Stubbs is. Not even Stubbs. Leadoff man, or bottom of the order? Just because you're fast doesn't mean you should leadoff. I like Drew, and I believe he may be the most talented player on the team. No way in the world you give up on him. I think he's better suited for hitting 6th or 7th. He seems to like it there, and he has said so. By necessity, the Reds hit him leadoff. Without a healthy Rolen, they had to put a table setter in Brandon Phillips into the cleanup spot. When the Reds were good last year, he was hitting leadoff. When they were good this year, he was hitting 2nd. He has to be in front of Votto, not behind him. That means Rolen has to be healthy. Can he be? Can he at least provide some protection for Joey? Without him, we know this team can't succeed, as I predicted back in March. It's one of the few times I wish I had been wrong. If Rolen can't hit cleanup, that means the Reds need to find a viable cleanup hitter. That may mean an offseason trade.

And who's the left fielder? Obviously not Alonso, who they've given up on after just 3 Major League games out there. Instead, they are giving Dave Sappelt a shot, who I clamored for back in November. I know he hasn't hit particularly well, but I still like what I see. He has a chance to be a legit player. Nonetheless, the Reds need left field to be filled by a big bat or a leadoff hitter. Whoever that guy is, your guess is as good as mine. We don't know who the closer is next year. Chapman? Hopefully he's in the rotation. Ondrusek? Maybe. Masset? Dear God. They can't afford Cordero, even on a reduced rate. That scares me. Hell, we don't even know the rotation. Cueto, Leake...and? Will Arroyo bounce back? How much money does Dontrelle want? Do they continue to pray about Edinson? Will Homer get his head screwed on straight? What about Wood? Suddenly that depth looks kinda questionable. We don't know if Mesoraco can hit up here, because the Reds haven't brought him up, and yet I would assume that Ramon won't be back next year. Hopefully that doesn't mean Hanigan will catch the majority of games. And do you know who Jay Bruce is? Is he an All Star, or Average Jay? He's still just 24, so there's time. But I think the Reds would have liked to see more progress out of him this season than they've gotten.

How much longer will we see the intense stare
of Joey Votto, just before he sends one over
the left field seats?

Lastly, and I won't go into this a whole lot, mainly because I'm saving it for another post, but what about Joey? He's owed $17 million in 2013. You think the Reds can afford that? And an extension for Brandon Phillips? One or both will be gone in two years. Book it. I'd rather let Brandon walk. You can't allot 10-15% of your payroll to a second baseman. Especially one that could be past his prime. Honestly, I don't know if you can give 15-20% of the payroll to Joey. That's a lot. How many games does Joey realistically impact for the team? Maybe 15-20? And I don't mean just driving in runs, I mean really being the winning difference. Play your cards right, and you can adjust to the loss of the Votto. Better pitching, more offense out of other positions, and an adequate replacement (Alonso). I love Votto. He's a tremendous player, one of the best I've watched play the game. He deserves a lot of money, but I don't think the Reds can afford him. Do you trade him? Let him walk after 2013? Yea, it sucks that he could leave. The Reds deserve to keep him. I hate watching star players leave town, especially when it's a small market. The Brewers deserve to keep Fielder, but probably can't. Baseball would be better if the homegrown stars stay at home. I still mark Votto down at 50/50 on being here long term, mainly because there are such few places he could go. But more on that in the future.

2011 has become a lost season. That's unacceptable for the Reds. They've got a window to be on top of this division for several years, and they missed out this year. Now, they may also have a window to compete while Joey is here. There goes one year. You've got two left, for now. It's not just a losing season for the Reds, it's one where they should have been good. They should have won. That's what hurts. It's not the losing. It's the fact that we all know they are better than this. In the 2000s, the Reds didn't have talent. They lost, but it didn't hurt. Now, they've got talent. And a year of it was wasted. For a small market team, that can't happen. They can't afford it.

The Eleventh Hour

Don't put all of the blame on Dusty.
The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

For the Reds, the trade deadline was as disappointing as the offseason. The difference? The Reds thought they would be good in 2011 during the offseason. The Reds knew they were not very good at the trade deadline. So they stood pat? When their season is on the brink, and not tilting in the right way? I don't agree with that move, and I didn't agree with the decision to hang back in the offseason, which is one of the reasons why I think much of this season's failure can be placed mainly on Jocketty and not Dusty. In the winter, the Reds essentially swapped Orlando Cabrera for Edgar Renteria. I didn't like that move, and even though O-Cab doesn't hit a whole lot, he brings a certain energy to the team that Edgar doesn't. They signed Fred Lewis, who is a middling player and a fourth outfielder on mediocre teams. If he is with the Yankees or Red Sox, he doesn't sniff the big leagues. Am I missing anything? Taking a flyer on Dontrelle was a good decision. As was not giving Arthur Rhodes the money he wanted (more on that later). But the Reds essentially declared to the baseball world that they were pleased with their team and believed they would improve. But Cincinnati is built on young players - players who don't have a back of a baseball card. You can't depend on them, because you don't know what you are depending on. This is where Cincinnati was burned, because they relied on these players to take a step forward, and for the veterans to continue to play at a high level. Scott Rolen looks like he did at the end of his run in St. Louis. Bronson Arroyo has lost 3-4 mph on his fastball. Jonny Gomes was jettisoned after a tough year. Those guys who were integral parts to last year have failed this year. That puts pressure on the kids. Who stepped up? Cueto and Leake have done that. Chapman is a wash because of the ups and downs, though he is trending upwards. Bruce, Stubbs, Heisey, and Bailey haven't improved, but haven't gotten worse. Janish and Volquez...yea. The worst case scenario played out for Cincinnati. However, the talent is there. As maddening as this team has been, we've seen the potential. Stubbs' start. Bailey's occasionally dominant performances. Bruce's May. All of these guys have shown life. If Cincinnati wants any hope of making a run, they have to put it together.

No trade? Then let the kids (like Todd Frazier) play.
The Enquirer/Sam Greene

Of course, what could the Reds truly have done at the deadline? I wouldn't have minded seeing them move Ramon, and check the market on Dontrelle, CoCo, and Masset. All of those guys have some value, and could have brought back prospects, while opening up the door for young kids to come up. Particularly Devin Mesoraco and Travis Wood. Yes, this sounds like a fire sale, but it isn't really. Cincinnati hasn't played particularly well with these guys, so they probably won't do any worse without them. And maybe some youth could have energized the team. That would have meant platooning Yonder Alonso and Chris Heisey in left. Giving Mesoraco almost every start at catcher, and letting Todd Frazier play third the rest of the way. If these kids are the future, shouldn't we see if they can perform up here? On the other hand, I understand why Walt did nothing. He didn't want to break up a team that is basically the one that won the division last year. There's a boatload of promise for next year. And the only names that could have helped this team were James Shields and Hunter Pence. Michael Bourn would have been a nice piece, but I would never overpay for a leadoff hitter. Ubaldo Jiminez scares me because of his decline in velocity, and the fact that the Rockies put their best pitcher and his extremely affordable contract on the block. Ryan Ludwick is the kind of deal you make if you are a game back or up. He helps, but isn't a difference maker. The Reds needed difference makers. That was Tampa's Shields or Houston's Pence. Yet, Shields was never moved, and I wonder if he was truly out there. He would have been perfect for Cincinnati, because of his ace-ability in the AL East right now, and that Cincy could have controlled him for two more years. Pence could have slotted into the cleanup spot, and been here past this year. He went to Philly, since apparently they have the best farm system in the history of baseball and can acquire anyone they want...ugh. I would have pulled the trigger on a Shields/BJ Upton deal, sending Yasmani Grandal, Travis Wood, and Chris Heisey to Tampa. They get their catcher of the future, and two MLB ready players for right now.

Trade Joey? Never. No matter how good the deal is.
The Enquirer/Sam Greene

And here's something: were the Reds actually trying to pull off what would have been the deal of decade? A deal that would have shook the very foundations of this franchise? John Fay talks about how the Reds may have been working on a Joey Votto - Jose Bautista deal. The Reds would have included a prospect in this deal, probably a minor league pitcher named Daniel Corcino. Look, I know it sounds ridiculous, but I've actually toyed with the idea of a Joey Votto trade in my head for sometime. This is one of the few deals that makes sense for both sides and players. Cincinnati gets a left fielder under control through 2015 with an option for 2016. The most he would make in that deal would have been $14 million, which is $3 million less than Votto will make in two years. In this small market, that makes Bautista more affordable than Votto. It also opens a spot for the Reds' best prospect, and potentially one of their best hitters, Yonder Alonso to take over at first base. That would give the Reds a solid middle of the order with Alonso-Bautista-Bruce. And Jose would be the big right handed bat they've been missing. It also gives the slugger a chance to win right away. For Toronto, they get the hometown hero that would draw big crowds. He would probably sign a long term deal and finish his career there. Joey probably gets out of the spotlight, though that is not a guarantee, considering the media would constantly be all over him there. The deal makes sense. Would I do it? Never in a million years. The reaction in Cincinnati would be horrific. Too many fans would be lost. Plus, what if Bautista is a fluke? Then you mortgage your franchise. I mean if it were as simple as fixing your swing, I'm sure there would be many a player that would be all ears. Not convinced that Bautista is doing this on pure talent. Back to the issue at hand. There's probably just a 50/50 shot that Votto stays here long term anyway. But, if you trade one of the best players in baseball, you cannot be taking a calculated gamble. It HAS to work. A generation of fans depends on it. At the end of the day, though, this was just speculation and rumors. If you can even call it that. Probably little traction and meaning to this. Joey Votto is a Red. That's all that matters.

And so, this is where I say that Walt probably made the right move to not buy at the deadline. Sometimes the best trades you make are the ones you don't. In January of 2008, Cincinnati considered acquiring then Baltimore ace Erik Bedard. It would have given them a then strong top of the rotation of Harang, Arroyo, and Bedard. Little did they know that Harang would begin to tank that season, and would never recover with the Reds. Nonetheless, I wanted them to make the move. I thought the window of opportunity to win was closing with Junior. I wanted him to have a chance. Cincinnati did not make the move. Bedard was traded to Seattle for their entire farm system (not really, but you get my point). We would find out that Baltimore's asking price was then prospects Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Johnny Cueto. Damn. Good thing I wasn't the GM, right?

If it came down to standing pat versus buying and risking a bum deal, like in 2006, what would you have done? I've seen a lot of bad things with this team, but I will never understand the 8 player deal with Washington. They traded away two good offensive players for that team in Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez. And they got an aging shortstop, a reliever with a bad shoulder, infielder Brendan Harris (not with team), Bill Bray, and Daryl Thompson. (Of course I know the other two players names, but the pain of typing their names is far too much for me to bare.) I'll take what we've got and stick to it, thank you very much. Like I said, only Pence or Shields could have improved this team enough.

Sums up the season, don't it? Good, but not good
enough.
Associated Press/Pat Sullivan

It's starting to get awfully late in this season, now. Cincinnati will be 6 1/2 or 7 1/2 games back depending on how the Milwaukee-St. Louis game turns out tonight. That's a mighty deficit to recover from. Granted, a 19-8 August in last year allowed the Reds to gain exactly 7 1/2 games on St. Louis. So though I believe the Reds season is dying, I do think there is a chance to come back. The Brewers are streaking right now, mainly because they have played at home against the moribund Astros and Cubs. Things even out. Is it enough to catch the Brewers? And two other teams? I give the Reds a 20% chance at coming back. That's being generous. But I've seen enough good stuff from this team to believe. And enough bad stuff to hang my head. This far into the season, the Reds are what they are. A flip of the coin. Swept by the Mets. Sweep the Giants. Lose to the Astros. Go figure. Tonight was a good bounce back for Homer Bailey and the Reds. Tomorrow is a crucial game. A must win, with Dontrelle going. You can't lose again to the Double-A Astros. And then you have to consider that a sweep may be a near must in Chicago. We'll see. The Reds have a weak August left to play. They need another 19-8 month to have the slightest of pulses, which means winning series 2 out of 3, mixed in with several sweeps. Don't worry about the Brewers, just get some W's. At the end of the month, check out the board. If you're within 4, then we can start talking.

One more quick note, the Rangers designated Arthur Rhodes and his 4.81 ERA for assignment. Tough for King Arthur. Ton of respect for the man - the definition of a class act. But he didn't have it this year, and the Reds saw that in the second half of last year. Nonetheless, he was brilliant for Cincinnati for two seasons. He was as lockdown as it gets. And his first half last season was one of the greatest runs by a reliever I've ever seen. I wish it would have ended better for the lefty, but when it goes, it does so in a hurry. Good luck and the best of wishes to Rhodes. And thanks for the time in Cincinnati. It was a pleasure watching a true professional and a master at his craft.

I know this has been a long post. I actually have a ton more to say. Like the sudden failures of Logan Ondrusek. The resurgence of Aroldis Chapman. The rotation. The health of Scott Rolen, who should probably be placed on the DL for the remainder of the season. He needs to get healthy for next year. The collapsing Pittsburgh Pirates. The bungling Cardinals. Speaking of St. Louis, check this out. Unbelievable. Will the whining ever stop? I hate that team. And my hate is reserved for very few things in life. The Cards and Steelers have earned that hatred, though.

Lastly, Johnny Cueto. The man is an ace. His head finally caught up to his arm and his stuff. It's what the Reds hope Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez can do. Bailey is close, but doesn't have that mental set to compete when he doesn't have his good stuff. Volquez...he's not very close. But, Johnny, Johnny, Johnny. Boy can he pitch. Can't wait to watch him for years. He will be the first Red to win a Cy Young. Book it.

Groundhog Day

You want to write my blog for me? Seriously? If you do, just give me a call, text, email, whatever. I'd be happy to let anyone take over this thing for me for awhile. It used to be fun writing about the Reds, ya know? Just like it was fun going to the games. Now...it's almost like a burden writing and watching games. I know, I know - stop doing both, right? Yea, like I, Cris Freese, will really stop writing about the Reds. Or stop going to the games, and stop watching them completely. By the way, if you don't want to read a rant, you might want to close out of this window right now. If so, I thank you for your page view.

Round trippers have become few and far between for Votto.
The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

I feel like I'm Bill Murray in Groundhog Day. I'm reliving the same day over and over with these Reds. We all are. Granted, it's not a loss every single night. No, the Reds are not the Seattle Mariners (wow, I cannot believe they have lost 17 in a row!! Just think about that). But the mediocrity is simply mind-boggling. Seriously, take a look at what they've done since sweeping the Dodgers in LA on Jun 15: 2L, W, 2L, W, L, W, L, W, L, W, 2L, W, 2L, W, 2L, W, L, W, L, W, 2L, W, L, 2W, 2L. Last night was a microcosm of everything that is wrong with this team. In my mind, it was also the lowest point of the season. The offense left guys on base. The starting and relief pitching was too inconsistent. The defense made mental lapses in the field, leading to errors and runs. Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, and Joey Votto (other than his two run homer) largely failed to come through. Seriously, Votto hit 19 homers to left and left-center last year, including 8 at Great American. He's got 4 this year, and just one at Great American. He isn't the same player as last year. And those three as a whole have hit .219 with 2 homers and 11 driven in since the break. There is no life on the team. No energy. No hustle. No passion. Dare I say that this team doesn't care? No, I take that back. I believe they think this thing is just going to be handed to them. Breaking news: no one else in this division cares that you won the division in 2010! You have to prove yourself all over again. The hardest part of winning isn't doing it once. It's doing it twice. Ask the Bengals. Hell, the Reds just have to look at themselves. It took them a month+ to just win back to back games.

Doesn't this picture look awfully familiar? Think October 2010.
The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

Maybe my Groundhog Day reference is a little off. I mean, like I said, the Reds don't lose the same way every day. And they don't lose every day. So let's call it...Groundhog Week? Whatever it is, it's the same crappy malaise from this team. At this point, I wish Cincinnati would either catch fire and make things interesting, or just collapse so I can stop watching. But don't keep me sitting on the edge of my seat, waiting. In a year where the Reds were supposed to take off and assert themselves as a top flight team, they've never even got off the runway. It's been back and forth all season. But it's easier to talk about the beginning of the second half. They take two of three from St. Louis, including a dramatic walk off by BP and an ace-like performance by Homer Bailey. There was hustle and energy in that series. Joey Votto advanced a base on a pop up behind home plate. Zack Cozart advanced to second on a fly ball to right field. They took a base right in the face of the Cardinals' defense. Then they go to Pittsburgh and lose the first two games a total of 3-0 on a pair of groundballs and a sacrifice fly. And now this home series has left me shaking my head at Dusty Baker. In four out of the five games, he left his starter in too long. He asked Bronson Arroyo to go back out in the 7th inning on Friday when they had just taken a 4-3 lead; he coughed up a homer to tie the game. He sent Dontrelle back out for the 7th inning on Sunday, and he coughed up a one run lead. Now, I know both of those guys were well under 100 pitches, but both had begun to struggle a little. Plus, you had a slim lead. Don't let your pitcher get in a position to lose the game. On Monday, he asked Leake to go back out in the 7th when he had given him 6 shutout innings. He was over 100 pitches, and he, Bray, and Ondrusek gave up the 1-0 lead. Then, last night, after getting a 5-4 lead, Dusty asked Cueto, who had struggled because of bad defense, to go back out there. A few batters later, the lead was gone. The Reds lost 3 of those 4 games that Dusty sent the pitcher back out. Every time you get a little hope in this team, they squash it back down. But whenever they do a little good and get some momentum, it unravels a few days later.

Barry returned to Cincinnati with ESPN on Sunday.
The Enquirer/Nick Hurm

Even with the inconsistencies, the Reds won the series against the Atlanta Braves. Then, they turned around and have lost the first two to the New York Mets. All of the games have been winnable, but different things have done them in. Poor pitching, lack of clutch hits, bad defense, and poor management decisions. I thought the Stubbs walk off homer on Sunday night on ESPN in front of a national audience was the turning point. Did you see all those people that stuck around after the game behind the desk? Wow, it looked electric down there. I thought the Reds were poised to take off. After all, their two best pitchers were going the next two days. And Mike Leake and Johnny Cueto both gave the Reds good outings. Cueto, despite giving up 6 runs, did not give up an earned run. Cincy could have won both games. Instead, they lost both. Last year, the Reds pulled wins out of losses all year long. This year, they've turned wins into losses. Where's the urgency? There's 59 games left in this season. At 50-53 and 5 games back, do you think the Reds are going to put it together? They haven't in 103 games. Why can they do it now. After starting 25-17, Cincinnati is 25-36. They are 11 under in their last 61 games. If there has been no indication this team can come together over the last 61 games, then why would we think they can come together for the last 59?

Jonny had a good run here.
The Enquirer/ Ernest Coleman

Last night, the club dealt the poster child for their division winning team from last year: Jonny Gomes. He was energetic, came up with big hits, played with a chip on his shoulder, and mostly played above his head all year. This year, Jonny came plummeting back to earth. He was second on the team in RBIs last year. This year he was the focus of the Reds' frustration. He didn't hit much or field all that well this year. Personally, I think that first few weeks messed him up. Remember all of the homers he was hitting? And all of the walks he was drawing? He was being patient and looking for a pitch to pull. Last year, he was aggressive, looking to swing early and drive the ball to right field. Why did he go away from what worked? Now, I wish Gomes all of the best. I hope he does well in Washington, and wherever else he may find himself in baseball. He's a good man. A class act. He just never was consistent enough to play every day. The Reds caught lightning in a bottle with him. Unfortunately for them, that type of thing rarely lasts. Gomes had this to say about his time here, "What an opportunity to play in such a baseball-rich community. You don't take anything for granted in 2008 at the end of that season, I was kind of left in the weeds. Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker gave me the opportunity. Came over here -- started out of in Louisville -- and had a great run....I'm bitter about leaving. I love these guys. I love where this team is at. I love where it's about to go. But as you see it's a business." Good luck Jonny. Thanks for the memories. The following are some special moments of Gomes in Cincy: 8/13/09, 4/8/10, 5/8/10, 5/17/10, 6/1/10, 6/12/10, 6/15/11.

Whether he's the answer or not, Yonder
Alonso can flat out hit.
The Enquirer/Jeff Swinger

Now, what does this move mean? It means Yonder Alonso is going to play left field with Chris Heisey for the remainder of the season. Yes, I believe it means that the Reds are not going to acquire a big bat for left field. I won't rule out the possibility of getting a top flight pitcher. I think that could still happen. But Jocketty clearly believes some of the offensive solutions can come from inside the organization. I also think that means we could see Ramon Hernandez dealt to the San Francisco Giants in the coming days, with Devin Mesoraco coming up to catch. My gut feeling is Jocketty will not make a big move. He'll stand pat and bring up some kids to try to energize this team. Why? Because when you have a sinking ship with multiple holes and only so many plugs, you can't really stop the sinking ship. Fix the starting pitching? Well what about the lack of clutch hits? Fix the offense? Then what about the rotation and the up and down bullpen? And none of that can fix the mental lapses of this team. The only way this team gets going is if they figure it out themselves. Now, like I said, I won't rule out a pitcher. I think James Shields of Tampa would fit nicely here. And it gives them an ace to pair with Cueto for the next two years. Kind of like the Scott Rolen deal from a few years ago. Don't be surprised if that happens. But don't be surprised if nothing happens, either.

So how does the rest of this year shake out? In my mind, this is the Brewers' division to lose. St. Louis will collapse, as they do every year. Lance Berkman will slump in the heat, and he has already begun to develop a shoulder injury here of late. The rotation, with Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook will falter, while Jaime Garcia becomes fatigued with the workload. Today, they traded Colby Rasmus and relievers PJ Walters and Trever Miller in a three team deal with the White Sox and Blue Jays. The Cardinals' will get up and down starter Edwin Jackson, relievers Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski, and outfielder Corey Patterson (haha). Not a good trade for St. Louis. Now, they will most likely move Kyle McClellan back to the bullpen. Problem is he has already thrown more innings than he ever has in his career, so I don't know how effective he will be. Jackson is either really good or bad, and if he's bad, St. Louis will have issues. Finally, when St. Louis dealt away Ryan Ludwick to make room for Jon Jay last year, Jay tanked and the Cardinals' offense sputtered. Well, with Rasmus gone, Jay will play every day in center. Look, Jay's ceiling is as a .300 hitter with maybe 15 homers and good defense. Rasmus' ceiling is similar to Jay Bruce's: .300+ hitter, 30+ homers, and 100+ RBIs. Colby was the better player. But he didn't get along with Tony LaRussa. Just like Scott Rolen and JD Drew. When did the manager become more important than the players?

And those Pittsburgh Pirates will not hang around much longer. Their rotation has a 3.60 ERA, the best in the division. Yet, they rank 2nd to last in the NL in K/BB at 1.86. And they are dead last in strikeouts per nine innings at 5.50. In other words, their pitching staff pitches to contact. Fine and dandy if your defense holds up the entire year. And so far, they have been tremendous. Their fielding independent ERA is 4.17. More than half of a run higher. In other words, their defense has helped out what is really a mediocre pitching staff. Without that defense, they have the fourth worst rotation in the NL. Also, their opponents average on batted balls in play is the 2nd lowest in the NL, which means opponents hit into bad luck against the Pirates. That will turn around. And so will the Pirates' season. It's been a nice run. And a good story. Probably the greatest story ever for a team that will finish in fourth place.

I don't have anything else to say about the Reds. I'm done speculating with this team. All I know is what my eyes tell me. And I don't see the same enthusiasm as I did last year. You win when you have fun. Not the other way around. The Reds aren't having a whole lot of fun right now. Seriously, when's the last time you saw a bunch of smiles out of that dugout? It's been a long summer.