Saturday, October 1, 2011

The Greatest Night in the History of Baseball

The scene in Baltimore, as the Red Sox season slipped away.
Did you see what happened on Wednesday night? Or at least hear about? Catch the highlights? I'm sure you did. And if you didn't, shame on you. Even if you're not a baseball fan. Wednesday night may have been the greatest night in the history of the sport. The Red Sox and Braves both managed to blow massive leads in the Wild Card over the course of September. Yea, remember when people were talking about them potentially being two of the best teams in baseball? They're not playing in October. They both blew 9th inning leads, losing to the Orioles and Phillies, respectively. And, the teams that had tied them just days before, the Rays and Cardinals, both won their 162nd game. St. Louis easily handled Houston to secure a playoff spot, while Tampa rallied from a 7-0 8th inning deficit, and got a two out, two strike, bottom of the 9th homer from Dan Johnson (who hit .119 on the season). Evan Longoria then hit a line drive homer to left to win it in the 12th. Unbelievable. Go crazy folks, go crazy.

Before I break down the playoff matchups (and yes, unfortunately I couldn't get this done before the first game), here's my ranking of the teams in the playoffs, based on the strength of their pitching staffs, offense and defense.

1. Philadelphia Phillies - Without a doubt, they have the strongest overall pitching staff. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels will be difficult to beat in a series. Their offense isn't what it used to be, but it's not too terrible. Pitching wins in October, though, and the Phillies are unmatched in that category.

2. New York Yankees - Dynamic offense and a solid team, overall. They can do a little bit of everything. But, they must win every game Sabathia starts, and they may need him to pitch 3 times in a 7 game series. I don't trust their rotation, but their bullpen is as lockdown as it gets.

3. Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers might be the most balanced team in the playoffs. They have a good mix of guys in that bullpen, while Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum are a dynamic trio that can nearly match Philly. And the offense is electric, especially with MVP candidates Fielder and Braun. They need to play good defense, though, which is the Achilles' heel for this team. With all of the talk about the end of the season, people seem to have forgotten about Milwaukee. Look out for them.

4. Texas Rangers - If you had asked me before yesterday, they would've been my pick to win it all. But the way CJ Wilson got blown up scares me. They were so good in the playoffs last year, but I just don't know if they're the same team. They've got great power and a decent pitching staff, but their matchup with Tampa is tough.

5. Tampa Bay Rays - Tampa barely made it into the playoffs, but no one is gonna ask how they got there. If Matt Moore pitches like he did yesterday to team up with Shields and Price, Tampa is a sleeper in the AL. They won't need any offense with that great staff.

6. Detroit Tigers - They remind me a lot of the Phillies when they won it all a few years ago: great offense, and a no name pitching staff, other than one ace. For Philadelphia, that was Cole Hamels. For Detroit, it's Justin Verlander, probably the AL MVP and Cy Young. If he can carry them, and they get good stuff out of Doug Fister, Detroit has a legit chance.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks - Ian Kennedy anchors their staff with 21 wins, and JJ Putz is lights out at the back of the bullpen. Combine that with the MVP-like ability of Justin Upton, and Arizona has the key players to make a deep run. But do they have enough around them? It's tough to think this team will go very far, but stranger things have happened. You know, like Kirk Gibson coming off the bench with a pair of blown out knees and smacking a walk off homer in the World Series off of Dennis Eckersley, the best closer in the game  back in the day. Yep, Gibson is now the DBacks manager. He'll have these boys ready to play.

8. St. Louis Cardinals - This team is good, not great. Good offense that can be explosive. But do Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, and Jaime Garcia scare you behind Chris Carpenter? Nope. But did Jeff Suppan, Anthony Reyes, and Jeff Weaver scare you behind Chris Carpenter in 2006? Nope. And they won the World Series.

Now, time for some playoff predictions:

ALDS (best of 5):

Texas Rangers over Tampa Bay Rays in 5 games: Texas is a more balanced team than Tampa, but they need to pick it up. My confidence in them is shaken after the beatdown yesterday.

Detroit Tigers over New York Yankees in 5 games: The Tigers have a better pitching staff than New York, and will find a way to squeak out a series victory. The Yankees aren't as intimidating as they've been in the past, and CC isn't enough to carry that whole team.

NLDS (best of 5):

Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona Diamondbacks in 4 games: Arizona is too young of a team, without experience. And the Brewers are a force up and down that roster. I can't see a scenario where Milwaukee doesn't win this series.

St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies in 5 games: This is a gut feeling. I can't help it. I hate St. Louis. But they have old Uncle Mo on their side. Halladay, Lee, and Hamels are very, very good. But they can be beaten, as San Francisco proved last year. I have nothing to back this pick up, but I can't shake this feeling about St. Louis.

ALCS (best of 7):

Detroit Tigers over Texas Rangers in 6 games: Detroit might have been the most consistent team next to Philadelphia all year. I think they are more balanced than Texas, and can ride Verlander and Miguel Cabrera to the World Series.

NLCS (best of 7):

St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers in 7 games: Reminds me of those classic Cardinals, Astros NLCS matchups years ago. I'll take the veteran Cardinals over the Brewers, and Tony LaRussa's know how over rookie manager Ron Roenicke. Once again, gut feeling on this one, mainly since Milwaukee is clearly the better team.

World Series (best of 7):

Detroit Tigers over St. Louis Cardinals in 7 games: Five years later, the Tigers avenge their World Series loss, with a great battle between a pair of Midwest, blue collar towns. Verlander wins MVP, outdueling Chris Carpenter a few times in the series.
Verlander: AL MVP? AL Cy Young? World Series MVP? Book it.