2010 Revisited on Opening Day 2011

"Oh, put me in, Coach, I'm ready to play, today.
Put me in, Coach, I'm ready to play, today.
Look at me, I can be Centerfield."
- John Fogerty's "Centerfield"

Opening Day is special. There's no other way to describe it. Even if you aren't a baseball fan or a sports fan, you probably know about Opening Day. Especially in Cincinnati. It's that one day of the year where it feels like everything stops. In this city, there's something unique about today. People no longer are arguing between Xavier and UC. There's no discussion about the Bengals or what they need to do to be relevant. For one day, every single fan in Cincinnati cares about one single thing: the Reds. And Opening Day is unique, because there's no negativity. Hope springs eternal. For one day, Reds' fans can dream as big as they want. There's only good on this day. It's just the fact that people can be back at the ballpark, and talking about their team that is exciting. The outcome doesn't really matter. In the end, there's nothing different about this game than there is with the first 161. And yet, there is. You can't tell me a Reds fan didn't feel something when Joe Randa hit a walkoff homer in 2005. Or when Adam Dunn went deep off of Carlos Zambrano twice in 2007. And when Josh Hamilton got a standing ovation before he even stepped to the plate. On Opening Day, every baseball fan can dream. It's a celebration before anything has been won. And in Cincinnati, it means something more. Of course, we have been doing this since 1869. Every year at this time, every person in this town truly does have Reds fever.

And today was one of those days that left Reds fans dreaming big. Like late October big. The day didn't start off like it was going to be special. At least not for Cincinnati. Rickie Weeks and Carlos Gomez hit back to back homers to start the game, the first time that has happened since Pete Rose and Bobby Tolan did it for the Reds in 1969. The Brewers would score a third time off of Edinson Volquez, who needed 30 pitches to get through the first inning. Needless to say it was not looking good, and I was having flashbacks to last year when the Reds were knocked around 11-6 on Opening Day.

Joey Votto would get a run back in the bottom of the inning when he crushed a ball to dead center that was caught on the warning track. It worked as a sacrifice fly, though. Weeks got the run back for Milwuakee in the next inning. Drew Stubbs showed some life for the team, though going opposite field for a solo shot to pull within 4-2 in the fourth. The Reds couldn't muster anymore against Yovani Gallardo, who looked very good for the Brewers over 6 innings. Cincy had their chances, and put together good at bats with 7 hits off of Gallardo, but couldn't come through. Meanwhile, Ryan Braun teed off for a bomb to center field off Volquez, who surrendered 5 runs in 6 innings of work. The Brewers extended their lead to 6-2 in the 7th, and things looked bleak again. On a cold, windy day by the river, the Reds seemed doomed for their 7th Opening Day loss in 9 seasons at Great American. Even a Joey Votto homer in the 7th didn't seem to help the mood. The Reds had stranded a staggering 10 base runners going into the 9th inning.

And then, all of the sudden, it was 2010 all over again. Brandon Phillips singled to begin the 9th, and Joey Votto worked a walk off of Milwaukee closer John Axford. Then came the play of the game. Scott Rolen chopped a ball to third, and Casey McGehee tried to make a play on the charging Phillips. Brandon avoided the tag, and the throw to first wasn't in time to get Scott Rolen. In this game, it's little things that matter. Good baserunning helped win a division for the Reds. Today, it provided a glimpse into both the past and the future. Jay Bruce struck out for the first out, and Jonny Gomes hit a bullet to center that was caught short of the wall. Phillips scored, but there was two down. Then, Ramon Hernandez, who had singled three times earlier in the day, sent a line drive into the bullpen in right. Home run. Game over. Reds win. Just like that. All of the magic from 2010 was reborn in an instant.

This team doesn't quit. They play until the final out is recorded. Milwaukee played great for 8 innings today. The Reds looked like champions for one. That's all that mattered. When a team like this refuses to lose, anything can happen. No lead is safe. Not against this team.

What a way to start the season.

National League Predictions

It's time to unveil my predictions for the senior circuit in baseball, the National League. While probably not as strong as the American League, I feel like there is more parity in the NL. Teams like Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and Atlanta all have a chance to go to the playoffs - and maybe the World Series. That's half the teams in the league! I really feel like each team has their strong positives, and even the lower level teams are closer to making the playoffs than most might believe. That being said, I see no turnover in the playoff teams from a year ago, though the results in October will be very different...


NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies (96-66) - I want to pick against the Phillies really, really badly. Yes, the rotation is phenomenal. But it also includes three pitchers that are over the age of 32, and that is not a recipe for success. Not to mention their lineup no longer scares me anymore. Ryan Howard has begun to decline, and Chase Utley can't stay healthy. So who is left to strike fear into opponents? Jimmy Rollins? Shane Victorino? A 38 year old Raul Ibanez? I will pick Philadelphia to win the division, but I don't see them winning in the playoffs. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they missed the playoffs.
2. Atlanta Braves (92-70)* - Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Tommy Hanson, and Jair Jurrjens is a poor man's version of Philly and Boston's rotations. But they might be just as good as them. The Braves need a huge year from Jason Heyward and Chipper Jones to bounce back. If rookie Freddie Freeman hits, they might be the most dangerous team in the National League.
3. New York Mets (81-81) - The Mets are in serious trouble. Remember when they were the chic pick a few years back to win it all? What happened? Jose Reyes has fallen off big time. Carlos Beltran has become a non-existent factor. Even David Wright is up and down. Their rotation is decent, but without Johan Santana, they have little chance at competing.
4. Florida Marlins (74-88) - Lots of good young talent, led by ace Josh Johnson and shortstop Hanley Ramirez. They need Mike Stanton and Logan Morrison to have huge years. If the rest of that rotation can finally pitch up to its potential, they could have something in Miami. But I think the Braves and Phillies are just too much for them.
5. Washington Nationals (72-90) - Until Stephen Strasburg is healthy and phenom Bryce Harper makes it to the big leagues, I want nothing to do with Washington. There Opening Day starter is Livan Hernandez, whose fastball tops out at 83 mph. Really? Jayson Werth isn't an answer to their issues, and I think it was actually a terrible decision to sign him in the first place.


NL Central

1. Cincinnati Reds (95-67) - Did you think I would really pick against them? The Reds have the best lineup, best rotation one through five, and the best defense in the division. They run, pitch, slug, slash, field, etc. Cincinnati has built a team that can stay at the top of the division for the next 5 years. If Edinson Volquez turns back into the 17 game winner he was, they are the class of the National League. And I don't see any reason why he won't be back to that form, especially now that he will be almost two years removed from surgery. Tell me a better and more versatile starting lineup than Stubbs, Phillips, Votto, Rolen, Bruce, Gomes, Hernandez, and Janish. Janish is the only weak spot, and his defense more than makes up for that. They could have 6 guys pop out 20+ homers. I've never picked against the hometown starting nine, and I won't now.
2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74) - Shaun Marcum doesn't scare me, especially if he continues to top out in the high 80's with his fastball. The Reds eat guys like that for breakfast. Yovani Gallardo has also had his fair share of issues against Cincinnati. Zack Greinke is a head case and is injured. Corey Hart is hurt, too. The Brewers field the worst defense in the league, and I don't buy into the hype that this team will win the division. Don't get me wrong, they are good, and will compete. But they aren't as deep as the Reds.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (81-81) - It's the end of St. Louis' run. Chris Carpenter and Albert Pujols could both be gone next year. They have no depth on their team. It killed them last year, and it will this year, too. And any team relying on Kyle Lohse to give them significant innings is either delusional or in serious trouble. The Cardinals are both. Adam Wainwright's injury looms large for the Redbirds, who could quickly sink into mediocrity if they miss the playoffs for the fourth time in five years.
4. Chicago Cubs (74-88) - Nope, don't buy it. Matt Garza and Carlos Pena are not saviors. Ryan Dempster is not an ace, and do you really want to trust Carlos Zambrano? There's some nice talent on the team, and a pretty good rotation, but the Cubs are NOT better than Cincy, Milwaukee, or St. Louis. There's no way around that.
5. Houston Astros (70-92) - I actually really like their rotation of Brett Myers, JA Happ, Wandy Rodriguez, and Bud Norris. But their lineup is horrific. Unless Carlos Lee sets the clock back four years, and someone on that team does their best Jeff Bagwell impression, they are cooked before the season even begins.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (62-100) - Andrew McCutcheon, Jose Tabata, Pedro Alvarez, and Neil Walker looks like a good core for the young Pirates. So did Nate McLouth, Freddy Sanchez, Nyjer Morgan, and Ryan Doumit of 2+ years ago. No rotation, and I'm sure the players they have now will be gone in two years. Why do I get the feeling that Pittsburgh may actually only be halfway through their streak of losing seasons?


NL West 

1. San Francisco Giants (90-72) - A rotation that is truly as good as Boston's and Philly's. Lincecum is terrific, but Matt Cain is the best pitcher on that staff. Madison Bumgarner is the next great lefty, and Johnathan Sanchez isn't bad either. I don't trust that their lineup will produce like it did last year, but they will come pretty close to it. I don't like any of the other teams in this division, so I'll stick with the champs.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74) - Not sure how a team with this kind of talent was so horrible last year. Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are great players, and either one could win an MVP award. If Chad Billingsley ever figures it out again, they would have a solid 1-2 punch with him and Clayton Kershaw at the top of the rotation.
3. Colorado Rockies (84-78) - I'm probably the only baseball fan in America that doesn't see what is so great about the Rockies. They don't play well on the road, and only hit at home. Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki are great, yes, but who else is in that lineup? Ian Stewart is a strikeout machine. Dexter Fowler is far too inconsistent. Todd Helton had a great career, but he is done. And the rotation is very fragile after ace Ubaldo Jiminez.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (74-88) - I really don't have anything good to say about the DBacks. Justin Upton and Chris Young are very good players. Their rotation is horrible. I can't name anyone else on that team.
5. San Diego Padres (70-92) - Last year was a fluke. Period. Mat Latos wasn't, though. He is an ace, and looks like the next Chris Carpenter. But their offense, also known as Adrian Gonzalez, departed to Boston. No way they are in contention two years in a row.


Playoffs
NLDS
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies (San Francisco in 5)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves (Cincinnati in 5)
NLCS
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds (Cincinnati in 7)


World Series
Cincinnati Reds vs. Boston Red Sox (Boston in 6)


Final Thoughts
Call me a homer if you want, but I don't see any reason why the Reds can't make it to the World Series. If Edinson Volquez is back to being an ace, why can't they make a deep run? Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto both held their own against Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. I don't see their bats going cold in October again, but I think they will run into the buzzsaw that is the Boston Red Sox. Nonetheless, I'd be pretty happy if the season ended with a trip to the World Series. A man can dream right?

American League Predictions

Opening Day is Thursday, which means it's time for me to come up with my predictions in every division, and each league. We'll start with the American League, where it's the usual suspects looking to dominate: Boston and New York. Texas, Minnesota, and Chicago are all lurking though as potentially dominating powers in the AL.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox (100-62) - With the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, the Red Sox are once again the team to beat in the East. Former aces Josh Beckett and John Lackey team up with Daisuke Matsuzaka at the back of the rotation, while the team features a strong 1-2 punch of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz at the top. That is a rotation that matches the Phillies' and will take the Sox deep into October.
2. New York Yankees (90-72) - Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia at the back of the rotation? And the erratic AJ Burnett at the three spot? I don't even trust Phil Hughes at number two, considering he struggled mightily in the second half. The Yanks will slug their way into a chance to make the playoffs, but a shoddy rotation will do them in.
3. Baltimore Orioles (82-80) - No, it's not a misprint. I believe in Buck Showalter and what they're doing in Baltimore. I finally think the kids will mature and take this team into contention. They have a nice collection of arms on the way, and some good ones at the major league level, including potential ace Brian Matusz. But a core lineup of Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Josh Bell looks like they could help the Orioles compete. I also love the addition of Derrek Lee, who will bring stability and leadership to the clubhouse. Remember, Showalter put the Diamondbacks and Yankees into great positions - they won World Series titles the year after he left town.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (78-84) - They still have a solid rotation, and a decent collection of players. But the roster is far too thin to remain at the top of the toughest division in baseball. David Price is the next Cliff Lee, and I think Jeremy Hellickson is the next Adam Wainwright, but the Rays will have to wait a year or two before they can think about playoffs again.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (72-90) - Count me in the group who thinks Jose Bautista will not come near his 54 homer performance from 2010. I do think Adam Lind and Aaron Hill will rebound, though. Their offense will still be prolific, but there's not enough pitching there besides Ricky Romero for me to see them really competing. I like the direction in which they're building, and getting someone to take Vernon Wells and his albatross of a contract off their hands is an automatic plus.

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins (92-70) - Everyone seems to be picking the White Sox, or the Tigers, like everyone does every year. And yet every year, the Twins still end up winning the division (or at least 6 out of the last 9 years). I think Francisco Liriano will be even better this year at the top of the rotation, and the rest of their rotation is fairly solid, especially with 17 game winner Carl Pavano. Their offense is underrated, and if Justin Morneau is healthy, they will be a force.
2. Chicago White Sox (91-71)* - Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, and Carlos Quentin is a fairly fearsome trio of sluggers, who might combine for 120 homers. They have a bunch of strong players around them, too, like Alexei Ramirez, Gordon Beckham, and Alex Rios. I love the staff too with gritty Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Edwin Jackson, and former Padre great Jake Peavy. Those five may be better than Boston's if everything is clicking.
3. Detroit Tigers (81-81) - This is a team that always seems to be on the cusp, but can never quite make it over the hump. Victor Martinez will help this team, but I don't think their lineup or pitching staff if quite deep enough to carry them into real contention within the division. Someone really needs to step up and be a co-ace with Justin Verlander.
4. Kansas City Royals (71-91) - I keep waiting for this team to get there, and I keep hearing about how great their farm system is. I hope it works out for them, I really do. Right now, I couldn't even tell you who most of their players are. Luke Hochevar is the Opening Day starter, but he is not ace. He was a number one pick, though, which doesn't necessarily say good things about the drafting and developing of Kansas City. That's why I'm afraid for their future. And don't forget the failures of Alex Gordon, who was hailed as the next great one. I won't buy their future yet, which is bad, considering they have no present.
5. Cleveland Indians (66-96) - An absolute mess. Carlos Santana and Fausto Carmona are the only good players on the team. Beyond that, there isn't much hope in Cleveland for several years, especially with a farm system left barren because of the poor return in trades of Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia.

AL West

1. Texas Rangers (90-72) - Texas worries me a great deal, mainly because of their decision to put Neftali Feliz back into the bullpen. Is 65 innings from him really better than 180+ innings? He has the potential to be an ace, and I'm afraid they're holding him back. The chances he becomes like John Smoltz is one in a million, and I fear this could be like Joba Chamberlain, where there could be serious implications if they don't just let him go in the rotation. I don't think the rotation is incredibly strong, and CJ Wilson will probably regress some this year. But the offense is the deepest and strongest in baseball. In a weak division, it will carry them to October.
2. Oakland (81-81) - They have the rotation of a playoff team, and the offense of a Little League team. If Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui hit though, they might be able to score enough runs to challenge Texas. Oakland is on the rise, and if they can produce some young offensive talent like they have with their pitching, they will be the team to beat in a year or two.
3. Los Angeles (80-82) - Remember when the Angels dominated the division? It seems like forever ago now. The rotation is not as strong as it was, and the offense can only dominate again if Kendry Morales recovers from his fractured leg. Even then, Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu are on the decline and the rest of the offense is very inconsistent.
4. Seattle Mariners (67-95) - Seattle has been a sexy pick for the last several years, but with Cliff Lee gone and Erik Bedard's inability to ever look like he did in Baltimore, the Mariners are in serious trouble. Felix Hernandez is as good as it gets, but that offense is putrid. Ichiro last year had 214 hits and only scored 74 runs. This team is going nowhere fast.

Playoffs
ALDS
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox (Boston in 4)
Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins (Minnesota in 5)
ALCS
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox (Boston in 6)

Cincinnati Reds Season Preview

With just four days until Opening Day, it's time to give a breakdown on the Reds' roster and their potential for this season. I won't give my predictions on the season just yet. You'll have to wait a few days for that. 

Starting Pitchers: No, there's not an ace. But no one in baseball, not even the Philadelphia Phillies, can match the kind of quality pitchers that the Reds can run out there every night. There's literally 7 or 8 pitchers in the organization that all deserve to be in the starting rotation. All of these guys could be in any rotation, and the Reds' depth will be tested early with Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey opening on the disabled list. I'm less worried about Homer's injury, since his numbers are replaceable, but if Cueto is gone for any length of time, the Reds could be in trouble. His 32-32 career record doesn't do justice to how important he is to the Reds, as he was 12-7 last year and was the victim of 6 blown saves. So we will see how this rotation does early on, as the Reds will break camp with Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Bronson Arroyo, Mike Leake, and Sam LeCure set and ready to go. Matt Maloney would also be prepared to step in if necessary, but might also get the call to work out of the bullpen. Grade: B+

Bullpen: There are still a pair of open spots left in the bullpen, which will be filled by either two from this group: Jose Arredondo, Jared Burton, Logan Ondrusek, and Matt Maloney. My best guess is that Arredondo starts the year on the disabled list, and the Reds will ship Maloney to Louisville to continue to work as a starter, just in case Bronson Arroyo struggles to start the year since he is sick with mono. That leaves Ondrusek and Burton to make the bullpen, joining Francisco Cordero, Aroldis Chapman, Bill Bray, and Nick Masset. The Reds will hope that Burton can duplicate his 2007 and 2008 years where he posted ERAs of 2.51 and 3.22. Dontrelle Willis was cut today and agreed to go to Louisville to continue to work on getting better. Overall the bullpen looks fairly solid, but not terrific. It all depends on that back three of Cordero, Chapman, and Masset. If they're all strong, then the bullpen will be strong. Grade: C+

Catcher: Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez have essentially become interchangeable both behind and at the plate. Hanigan is a .279 career hitter, and hit .300 exactly last year with 5 homers and 40 RBI. Hernandez, who will likely get the Opening Day start, has hit .278 in his Reds career and hit .297 last year with 7 homers and 48 RBIs. I'm sure the Reds would be please to get a near-.300 batting average and 12 homers with 88 RBIs from their catchers again this year. Veteran Corky Miller, who handles  pitchers extremely well, waits in Louisville in case of injury. Top prospects Devin Mesoraco, who tore it up in Spring Training this year, and Yasmani Grandal await in the wings in the minors. Both are terrific hitters and could both be future all stars. Mesoraco will most likely be up here this year if anything happens to Hanigan or Hernandez. Few teams can boast this kind of depth at the catcher position. Grade: A

Corner Infielders: Joey Votto and Scott Rolen are the heart and soul of this team. They make the team go. We all know how important Votto is, considering he won the MVP. And Rolen is just as important, as he carried the team for stretches in the first half last year. If the Reds are to get back to the playoffs and further, they need Scott Rolen to stay healthy and be productive for about 120 games. Behind them, Miguel Cairo is as solid as they come, hitting .291 in 200 at bats at four different positions. In all likelihood, Juan Francisco will make the team, and will be the primary left handed pinch hitter off the bench. If Rolen were to go down for any length of time, he would fill in, and is likely the third baseman of the future. Yonder Alonso is a career .291 hitter in the minors, blasting 24 homers and 123 RBIs. He primarily plays first, but is blocked by Votto at the majors, so if he is to ever play for the Reds he must learn to play left field. Most likely, however, Alonso will be trade bait for Cincinnati. Grade: A

Middle Infielders: Brandon Phillips has become a staple at second base for Cincinnati and he says he would like to finish his career here. I'm sure every Reds fan would want to see that as well. Brandon saw his RBI total dip to 58 last year, as he spent a lot of time at leadoff or hitting second. But he also hit a very solid .275 with a career high 33 doubles while scoring 100 runs. Phillips won his second gold glove award, committing just 3 errors. I expect the RBI total to rise again this year, and for Phillips' home run total to top 20 once again, after dipping to 18 last year. Paul Janish will be the starting shortstop after hitting .260 in 200 at bats last year. If he can translate that into a full season, the Reds will be please, especially with his stellar defense. World Series MVP Edgar Renteria comes over from the Giants with a career .287 average and over 2000 hits. The Reds will be happy if he plays solid defense and hits about .275, which he did last year for San Francisco.  Grade: B

Outfielders: Jonny Gomes, Drew Stubbs, and Jay Bruce comprise the starting outfield, though I wouldn't expect Gomes to hold onto his job if he struggles at all. Jonny came up with a career high 86 RBIs last year, and the Reds expect that kind of production again this year. He'll need to put up strong numbers again, especially with Chris Heisey and Dave Sappelt breathing down his neck. Sappelt hit .564 this spring and will undoubtedly be in the Reds' plans, as early as this year. Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce are both candidates to have breakout years this season. Both have the potential to win gold gloves and go to the all star game. I expect Stubbs to hit about 25 homers and steal near 40 bases, while I think this is the year Bruce puts it all together and drills close to 40 homers. Both of these guys will have huge years and are the cornerstones of the Reds' future. Fred Lewis may not make the club out of spring, but will likely be up at some point and will get some time at the top of the lineup. He's a fairly adequate leadoff hitter and could provide some impact on games, though I don't think he should get a call over Sappelt. Grade: A-

Overall View: The Brewers' and Cardinals' top players are probably better than the Reds top players. But 1 through 25 on the roster, the Reds are as strong as anyone in baseball. And I think that's what sets them up for such a great season, because of their unparalleled depth. Milwaukee and St. Louis are built for short series in the playoffs, while the Reds are built to win over 162 games. That depth will come in handy as the season wears on, and it will be tested from the very start. How the Reds handle the adversity of having a target on their back will be key all season. They have gone from the hunters to the hunted. And now they have more competition within the division than they did last year. Team Grade: A-

The 25 Man Roster, and Final Day in Arizona

Back in Cincinnati, unfortunately. The paradise that was Goodyear, Arizona, is now gone, and I'm left to agonize over the days remaining until Opening Day. That would be 19 days, if you were wondering. Spring Training was definitely a cool experience, and I would highly recommend anyone to go out there if they had the chance.

Arroyo, with that familiar leg kick

Anyway, to the game on Thursday. I couldn't have asked for a better lineup of players for the day, especially considering I got to see three of my favorite pitchers, and basically what will be the Opening Day lineup. Bronson Arroyo got the start, and looked fine in three of his four innings. His third inning, bad Bronson showed up. He hung several curve balls and the San Franciso Giants jumped all over him. They blasted three homers in the inning off of him, and tallied four on the board. Andres Torres, Freddy Sanchez, and Cody Ross were the culprits. Nonetheless, what does it mean in the end? Most likely, nothing. Arroyo has bad games here and there in the regular season, and he isn't the kind of guy that will let a meaningless spring start get to him. Most likely that inning where he gave up the homers, he was merely just working on pitches.

Edinson Volquez looked decent in his first appearance

Following Arroyo's four innings of work, the Opening Day starter for Cincinnati finally made it to Arizona to pitch. Edinson Volquez had been stuck in the Dominican Republic with visa issues, but made it to the game in time to get his first work in for the spring. Volquez looked pretty much like he always does: effectively wild. He gave up two runs, just one earned, on two hits in 2 2/3 innings, while striking out two and walking two. I didn't think his stuff looked too bad, but he just didn't have a whole lot of control out there. That can't be the case in the regular season. The Reds absolutely need Edinson to continue to grow into a top flight pitcher, or else they could be in trouble. Aroldis Chapman also worked two innings, and struck out three, though he did give up a run due to Jeremy Hermida's inability to cover ground in left field. Nonetheless, the Cuban Missile looks just as electric as he did last year.

Good to see BP back and healthy

As for the bats, once again, there was very little to talk about. I was able to see Brandon Phillips for the first time all spring, and he had a single in two at bats. Drew Stubbs struck out twice, and Joey Votto struck out again, going hitless in two at bats. Jonny Gomes, Jay Bruce, and Ramon Hernandez were all held hitless as well, as the Reds managed no offense on the day. Paul Janish did have another hit to raise his average to .389 on the day, but the Giants' pitching held the Reds scoreless in a 7-0 beatdown.

With my time at Spring Training over, I'll leave you with my projected 25 man roster, and notable guys that I left off. I struggled the most with the end of the bench and the back of the bullpen. I really like Chris Valaika, and personally think he could be much more valuable than Miguel Cairo, but I know Cairo will make the team. Also, I feel like Dave Sappelt deserves to make the team, but won't, since he still is young and should play everyday. He won't get that opportunity up here. Basically, the last two spots on the bench came down to three outfielders: Chris Heisey, Fred Lewis, and Jeremy Hermida. Heisey is an excellent defensive player, and has shown to be clutch when given opportunities - he has to be in. At the end of the day, the last spot on the team goes to Lewis, because he is a better fielder than Hermida, and is a leadoff option. Neither has been impressive this spring, but Dusty won't carry three extra infielders and just one outfielder. Lewis is the better player. The rotation was easy, Bailey had to make it since he is out of options. Also, at this point in their careers, Travis Wood is better and more valuable than Mike Leake, so he made the team. Leake, though, will be up at some point this year. I like the bullpen, and as good as Jared Burton has been, he has to make it. With the need for a long man, I decided to go with Sam LeCure, instead of the lefty Bill Bray, or Jose Arredondo, who has been up and down this spring.

(Note: Locks for the roster are in bold)

Starting Rotation:
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Homer Bailey - He's out of options, so he has to make the team, or else some other team will grab him.
Travis Wood - The lefty was impressive last year, and has the ability to be a top of the rotation pitcher.

Bullpen:
Francisco Cordero
Nick Masset
Aroldis Chapman
Logan Ondrusek
Dontrelle Willis - Impressive this spring, having gotten rid of that big leg kick and awkward delivery.
Jared Burton - Looks like the Burton of old.
Sam LeCure - The Reds need a long/swing man, and he is the perfect fit.

Starting Lineup:
Drew Stubbs (CF)
Brandon Phillips (2B)
Joey Votto (1B)
Scott Rolen (3B)
Jay Bruce (RF)
Jonny Gomes (LF)
Ramon Hernandez (C)
Paul Janish (SS)


Bench:
Ryan Hanigan (C)
Miguel Cairo (IF)
Edgar Renteria (IF)
Chris Heisey (OF) - Too versatile offensively and defensively to leave off the roster.
Fred Lewis (OF) - Not a big fan of him, but he's the best option left of the outfielders - unless they are willing to play Sappelt everyday.

Notables left off:
Mike Leake (RHP) - We will here from this kid at some point in the year, he's too good to be kept in the minors for too long.
Matt Maloney (LHP) - Sam LeCure is just a tad bit better than Maloney, who has to wonder if he will ever get a prolonged shot in the majors.
Jose Arredondo (RHP) - As soon as someone struggles, Arredondo will be up. His stuff is electric, and he is definitely a closer-type pitcher.
Bill Bray (LHP) - Dontrelle beats him out in a race that hasn't even been close lately.
Jordan Smith (RHP) - This big right hander was impressive at times last year, but he could use some more seasoning.
Juan Francisco (3B) - If he cuts down on the strikeouts, he's the future at third.
Chris Valaika (IF) - As I said, I think he could be more valuable than Cairo, but there's no room for him on the roster.
Todd Frazier (OF/IF) - The once top prospect is playing his way out of the organization.
Dave Sappelt (OF) - He's the future in left field, but there's no room for him right now.

Rangers, Reds Blast Opponents

I wasn't at the Reds-Padres game yesterday, but I wish I had been. Former Red, Aaron Harang, made his first start against his old club, and it did not go well. The Reds crushed him for 7 runs on 7 hits, including 5 straight hits to start the 2nd inning. Ryan Hanigan, Chris Heisey, and Juan Francisco all hammered homers, two off of Harang. Dave Sappelt had another hit and two more RBIs, as the Reds banged out 18 hits and 15 runs to beat the Padres 15-5, despite putting in their "B" lineup. Chad Reineke, Logan Ondrusek, Bill Bray, and Jared Burton all had scoreless appearances for the Reds, as only Daniel Ray Herrera and Jordan Smith gave up runs. Burton is the most important of those pitchers, as he has not given up a run in 6 innings so far this spring. He looks like the dominant setup guy he was for awhile. Hopefully he makes the club and can help take some of the load off of Nick Masset in the 8th inning. Today, I see my last game between the Reds and the Giants. Bronson Arroyo is starting for the Reds, and Edinson Volquez is supposed to follow.

As for the Rangers game, they jumped all over A's starter Dallas Braden. You might remember Braden for throwing a perfect game on Mother's Day last year. He was far from perfect on this day. The Rangers looked like they will not miss a beat this year, with a solid offense and very good pitching. They were missing All Star 3rd baseman Adrian Beltre, but still had a solid offense, led by stars Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Elvis Andrus. The pitching was also impressive, led by young lefty Derek Holland and closer turning starter Neftali Feliz. Instead of going more in depth to this game, I'll leave you with some pictures.

Holland was impressive, striking out 4 in 3 innings

Best player in the game

Dallas Braden was not so perfect on this day

The Rangers celebrate 5 first inning runs

Side-armer Darren O'Day with that funky delivery

This guy look familiar? He should. It's Arthur Rhodes

Neftali Feliz, closer or starter?

Jemile Weeks, younger brother of the Brewers' Rickie Weeks

Rangers win 9-2!

Stubbs, Willis Spark Victory

Surprise Ballpark

By the third day out here I'm now itching for the real deal that is Opening Day and the regular season. Spring Training is great, but it doesn't have the pageantry of Opening Day, and it doesn't have the looming significance of regular season games. I'm not sitting there agonizing over Dusty's moves, or why that reliever threw a curve in a fastball count. Spring Training provides the ability to watch baseball with the luxuries of seeing the kids of the future and the men of the present without worrying about an outcome. In the regular season, yes a loss is normal because there are 162 games to play, but each game means more. You walk away feeling good or bad about your team. Out here in the desert, I can only walk away with more anticipation of the real thing. The Reds beat the Royals yesterday 5-2 in what was an excellent ball game - about as close as you can get to a regular season game in the spring. Surprise Ballpark looks nicer than Goodyear Ballpark, and is more wide open. But, the views at Goodyear are spectacular, with the mountains right near you in the background. Plus, Goodyear has that special aesthetic appeal of being newer.

Travis Wood deals a pitch to Eric Gordon

Anyway, let's get to the actual game. Travis Wood started and, other than a two run blast by Billy Butler, he looked pretty good. The lefty was moving the ball in and out, looking very much like the guy that was spectacular for the Reds in the second half. I'm looking forward to a full year of a good lefthander in the Reds' rotation. Lord knows the Reds haven't had a real good one since the days of Mr. Perfect, Tom Browning. Following Wood, Sam LeCure, Dontrelle Willis, and Matt Maloney all pitched a pair of scoreless innings each. They all looked excellent, and deserving of spots in the bullpen. If I had to pick two of the three, I would choose LeCure and Willis. Right now I think LeCure has better stuff than Maloney (Sam struck out 4 in two innings) and has the ability to pitch the 7th or 8th inning if absolutely necessary. There isn't a whole lot of separation between the two, but LeCure just has the look of a seasoned vet. As for Dontrelle, Walt Jocketty and the Reds may have struck gold. Willis looked physically fit and was snapping off beautiful breaking pitches. He made three very fine plays in the field, and struck out three as well. Willis has given up only two hits in 5 innings thus far, and has struck out 6. He looks to be a fine replacement for former stalwart Arthur Rhodes.

Stubbs readies himself to crush a pitch

I feel like a broken record on this, but Paul Janish really looks good swinging the bat out here. He hammered a ball to the gap that was run down, and blistered a single into center later. Edgar Renteria also looks very solid, and has been hitting the ball well, too. The star at the plate on Tuesday, though, was Drew Stubbs, who hit a bomb of a three run homer to left center. Meanwhile, Joey Votto, Scott Rolen, and Jonny Gomes do not look all that great right now. Votto struck out two more times yesterday and did not look like he was seeing the ball all that well. Rolen struck out once as well, but put together a few good at bats and made solid contact here and there. Gomes made pretty good contact a few times, but didn't look great either. The pitching is definitely way ahead of the hitting at this point.

Today, I take a break from the Reds, who head out to Peoria to play San Diego and former ace Aaron Harang. Instead, I'm headed back out to Surprise to check out the defending AL Champion Texas Rangers versus AL West rival Oakland. But, before I leave you, I'd like to take a look at five things that I think are absolute keys to the upcoming season for Cincinnati, if they want to defend their NL Central title:

Votto, Rolen, and Bruce

1. The health of Scotty Rolen. If the neck, back, hip, knee, or whatever ails the 35 year old third baseman, doesn't hold up, then the Reds could be in trouble. Joey Votto is the most valuable player on the team and in the league, but Scott Rolen is the heart and soul of the Reds. If he doesn't hold up, I don't think this team could realistically hang in there. Baseball is very much a mental game, and when you have a leader that provides a bulldog mentality for your team, it's important that he is out there. A lot. I keep hearing 120 games is the number for Scotty. That would be nice. It's about what he played last year. But if he has to play less to save his body for a potential October, then so be it. His clutch base hits and stellar defense are valuable all the time, but even more so when the season is on the line.

2. Who's the ace? Somebody has to be THAT guy for this team. Bronson Arroyo is the so-called stopper and big game pitcher, but he is not an ace. He can pitch in the big games, but in a game seven against Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum? I don't think so. So who is that guy for the Reds? Edinson Volquez? Johnny Cueto? Homer Bailey? They need to find out, and hopefully this year. A run in the postseason without a true number one seems almost impossible these days.

3. Jay Bruce or Drew Stubbs. One or both of these guys need to have a breakout year. It would help take pressure off of the rest of the offense. Both of them seem to be on the cusp of greatness, and I think they can both definitely do it. But the Reds need them to make that jump this season. Such a jump, almost like the one Joey Votto made, would only be a boost to a team trying that has become the "hunted" instead of the "hunters."

4. Dontrelle Willis and Aroldis Chapman. I'm assuming these two are the lefties in the pen. Chapman has to be as electric as he was at the end of last year. And Dontrelle needs to do his best Arthur Rhodes impression, like he has this spring. One of these guys needs to be able to pair up with Nick Masset to be the setup guys to Coco Cordero. I'm not a fan of moving Chapman to the closer's role. I trust Coco, and think that moving him out of the role would only mess the bullpen up. Then, you try to put him in a position he is not comfortable with, and are essentially experimenting with someone who has never been a closer before, like Chapman. Everyone in the bullpen then has to move up a spot, so you are taking middle relievers and making them setup men. Things get risky at that point. I believe in gutting things out for the long haul, and I don't think one guy will cost the Reds a pennant.

5. Jonny Gomes. The Reds need a repeat performance of last season. His contract is up, and his job could be too, with Chris Heisey and Dave Sappelt waiting in the wings. Gomes is one of my favorite players, and I love the attitude he brings to the game. Really reminds me of Ryan Freel, but with more power and less speed. He's just one of those guys you root for. Nonetheless, he will be in the heart of the lineup again, and the Reds need him to be consistent for an entire season. We've seen he can carry a team for a month or more with his torrent hitting, but the Reds need Gomes for the big 162, and not just a few really good months.

Day Two in the Desert

Well, I guess that's sort of deceiving. Yes, Phoenix is pretty much in the middle of nowhere. Travel anywhere outside of the suburbs here, and you are in the middle of the desert. Nonetheless, it couldn't be more beautiful out here. Kind of cold yesterday, with 35 mph winds, but hardly a cloud in the sky.

Goodyear Ballpark

Homer readies for a pitch in the first inning

Not much to write home about from Monday, as the Brewers thumped the Reds, 15-2. Pitching wise, we'll start with Homer Bailey. I've always been enamored with Homer's potential; I guess I got sucked into all that hype when he was brought up a few years ago. I can remember the billboard the city put up the day he made his first ever start. It's safe to say he has been a disappointment thus far in his career. I can't help but dream when I see him still throwing 96 in the 6th and 7th inning. He puts together those starts every once in a while that make you think he can be an ace. Like when he dominated the Cardinals for 7 innings two years ago, or the end of the 2009 season when he was essentially unhittable. He was very good last year after the All Star Break, too. This season is a make or break one for Bailey. The Reds have the kind of pitching depth where Bailey has become a luxury if he pans out, not a necessity. If he does develop, then they have a potential ace. If he doesn't, then he's trade bait. Homer looked like he could be someone else's problem, the way he pitched yesterday. He gave up four runs on six hits in 2 2/3, and two of the runs scored after he left. He walked none and struck out three. Yes, the wind was blowing out, which makes it difficult to pitch, but it really sounded like the Brewers were making solid contact off of him. And solid base hits have nothing to do with the wind.

Aroldis Chapman and his triple digit heater

As for the rest of the staff, well, they weren't much better either. Jeremy Horst allowed Homer's other runs to score when he entered to get an out in the third inning. Mike Leake was absolutely terrible following those two. He gave up hits to the first four hitters, and nine hits overall. The Brewers would go on to score four runs in three innings against Leake. Following him, Bill Bray looked like a train wreck. He gave up seven runs on six hits in 2/3 of an inning, which included a pair of homers, one that almost took out a guy's laptop in the right field pavilion. Logan Ondrusek relieved him to get out of the inning, while Nick Masset and Aroldis Chapman both looked solid in their respective inning of work to round it out.

Votto swings through a pitch in the first

The offense wasn't much better for the Reds. None of the regulars, other than Paul Janish, looked good. Joey Votto and Drew Stubbs both struck out twice, and didn't look good doing it. Of course, much of that credit must be given to Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers, who is an excellent starter, and would be an unquestioned ace for many teams that didn't have Zack Greinke. Back to Janish though, who had another solid two hit day. Of course, one of those hits was an infield pop up that fell in due to the wind. The other was a solid single that sounded good coming off the bat. Janish is hitting .357 right now, and I have been extremely impressed with him. Look for him, and not Edgar Renteria, to be the starting shortstop come Opening Day. Dave Sappelt continued his torrent hitting, blasting his second homer of the spring, and singling in his other at bat. If this kid doesn't make the roster, I'll be disappointed. How can you turn down a kid that is hitting .533?? First round draft pick Yasmani Grandal doubled in a run in the 9th to round out the offense for the day.

Today I head to Surprise, Arizona to check out the Reds at the Royals. Left hander Travis Wood gets the start, with Matt Maloney, Dontrelle Willis, and Sam LeCure to follow. I'm interested to see all of these guys, each for individual reasons. I hope Wood looks better than Bailey and Leake, because he is almost a lock to make the rotation if they both continue to pitch badly. Plus, with Leake looking terrible, that opens the door for Maloney or LeCure to be the long man in the back of the bullpen. Personally, I like Maloney because he is a lefty, and could be used situationally. And, the battle for the other lefty in the pen, other than Chapman, is still up in the air, so if Dontrelle continues to pitch light out, he will be up in Cincinnati come March 31st. Let's hope for a better result against Kansas City!

Greetings from Goodyear!

View from the Outfield in Goodyear Ballpark

What up ya'll! It's bright, sunny, and a comfortable 77 degrees out here in Goodyear, Arizona, where I have the great pleasure of seeing the Reds play for four days, and catch a game between the Rangers and the Athletics. Hopefully it isn't too cold back in the Midwest, but I will be back to the daily grind of school soon enough, unfortunately. Over the course of my days out here, I'll give a quick rundown of each ballgame, with some observations, and maybe some other spring training stuff. Other than this week, I will not cover any more spring training games, I promise. If I do, I feel I'll only be wasting everyone's time, since this is definitely not the regular season, as evidenced by Sunday's game. Nonetheless, I'm enjoying this out here.

Johnny Cueto

On Sunday, Johnny Cueto looked like he was in mid-season form, easily mowing through the Chicago Cubs' lineup. Granted, this is spring, and the Cubs had a split squad day, but they still had five of their every day starters in there. He allowed only an infield hit and a walk in three innings of work, and never seemed to struggle with his command. Once again, it's only spring, but Cueto looked very much determined to not let his brand new contract hang over his head.

Francisco Cordero

As for those who followed Cueto, they did their jobs as well. Combined, they only gave up one more hit in the final six innings. So, the Reds held the Cubs to a total of 2 hits in a 10-0 rout. Francisco Cordero looked excellent in his perfect inning of work, with a nasty slider and a fastball that had the catcher's glove popping. Jared Burton followed with a perfect inning of work in his attempt to make the club again. Remember, a few years ago, he was a dominant setup man for David Weathers, before suffering a series of lat injuries that left him unable to find control of his cutter. Daniel Ray Herrera and Carlos Fisher both pitched perfect innings, too, in their bids to make the club in what is a deep and competitive group for the bullpen. Daryl Thompson also worked an inning, and struggled with his command. Maybe one day he can find the stuff that made him look so promising in that start against the Yankees in New York. Rounding out the pitching staff was young lefty Donnie Joseph, who throws in the mid-90's with good offspeed stuff and could be a closer in the future.

Miguel Cairo digs in for an at bat

As for the offense, there was plenty of it, starting at the top of the lineup. Edgar Renteria went 2 for 3 and scored two runs while filling in for Brandon Phillips at second base. Paul Janish, who is trying to fight off Renteria for the shortstop job, went 2 for 2 and drilled a pair of singles to center and right center. The ball sounded great coming of his bat, and he looks like he may be able to nail down the job in the spring. If he hits .260+, then there is no reason that Renteria should start over him. Dave Sappelt, who I mentioned back in November here, is now hitting a robust .462 after another single. This guy may very well win a spot on the club, and is likely the replacement for Jonny Gomes next year. Juan Francisco, who is fighting to be Scott Rolen's backup, drilled a double and drove in three runs. Lastly, Zack Cozart looked strong again in his bid to make the club, and possibly even supplant Janish as shortstop, with a big homer to left. He's hitting .455 this spring and, if he doesn't make the club, will be up this year at some point.

Today, I'll be checking out the Reds and Milwaukee Brewers at Goodyear Ballpark. Homer Bailey is on tap to start against Yovani Gallardo, with Mike Leake, Nick Masset, Bill Bray, and Aroldis Chapman all to follow. Hopefully Votto, Rolen, Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce, and Phillips will all be in the lineup tomorrow. The game is on Fox Sports Ohio at 3:05 ET, so check it out if you get the chance! Should be a good ball game. Hopefully we will see many post-game celebrations like the following in the year to come.