In Case You Haven't Heard...

Arthur Rhodes

Arthur Rhodes is gone and headed for Texas, as of a few days before Christmas. (Sorry I've been a little slow, but that's the holiday season.) He wanted a multi year deal from the Reds, and Walt Jocketty said no. Instead, Arthur opted to head home, and pitch for the Rangers. Presumably the teams offered the same deal, with the same basic terms. The only difference is that the Rangers included a vesting option. This means that if Rhodes performs like he did in 2010, his one year deal suddenly becomes a two year deal, and he will be back in a Rangers uniform for 2012. Essentially, they gave Arthur what he wanted in a multi year deal, but only if he pitches well. If he struggles, the option never activates, and they can let him walk after a year. Smart move by the Rangers. I'm not sure where the Reds were in all of this. I wish they would have signed Rhodes, but at the age of 41, well, frankly I'm not sure how much he has left in him. Especially considering he struggled mightily down the stretch, and was essentially a first half pitcher. Am I nervous about a trio of Aroldis Chapman, Bill Bray, and either Dontrelle Willis or Danny Herrera? Yes and no. I'm fine because (other than Herrera) they all have great stuff. I'm nervous because they all can be wild, and at times, hittable (though Chapman less so than the others). Arthur Rhodes was hardly ever wild, and hardly hittable, especially against left handers. We will see how it plays out. I think this answers the question of where Chapman will be, though.

I also have no problem with the Reds passing on Brandon Webb (who also signed with the Rangers), though I indicated they could be interested in him here, because of the depth in the rotation. Let's assume Volquez, Arroyo, and Cueto all have starting spots locked up. Webb would be competing against Leake, Wood, Chapman, Bailey, Maloney, and LeCure for a spot. I would be fine with Webb over Maloney and LeCure, but for anyone else...I think I would be worried he would only inhibit the progress of the youngsters that need to be getting innings up here now. Plus, no one knows if Webb's shoulder can hold up for 200 innings, or even 180 innings, like it has in the past. I'm not sold that he can still be a reliable option for the rotation anymore. I'd rather watch the Reds continue to develop their young talent, rather than waste time on old talent.

Bengals vs. Reds; Scott Podsednik?

I couldn't help but notice some cartoons of the Bengals that had been posted here, on Cincinnati.com. There were two that involved the Reds that I just had to laugh at. It's funny how times have changed, isn't it?

Meanwhile, rumors have begun to swirl that the Reds are interested in Scott Podsednik, the former leadoff man and World Series hero for the Chicago White Sox. Scott is a career .279 hitter, with a .340 OBP and 301 stolen bases. He doesn't have any pop in his bat, but he knows how to get on base, and how to get himself in scoring position afterwards. After a few miserable seasons in Chicago and Colorado, he bounced back to hit .304 and .297 over the past two seasons. At 34 years old, he is no longer a centerfielder, which is alright since Drew Stubbs is one of the best for the Reds. He does play an adequate left field, though, which means he could platoon with Johnny Gomes out there. Podsednik made $1.65 million last year, and considering the Reds haven't signed Arthur Rhodes yet, one can't help but wonder if they can afford him. The budget is already tight as it is. And how much does the highest scoring team in the National League really need him?

I hope you and your family have a great Christmas!

NL Central 2010 Grades, Including Offseason

As 2010 winds down, let's take a look back at the year that was, including each NL Central team's offseasons and regular season, and how each team faired.

Starlin Castro

The Chicago Cubs acquired outfielder Marlon Byrd last season, hoping to solidify their outfield and roster, while believing they could rebound from a so-so 2009 to regain their form that had garnered them back to back division titles in 2007 and 2008. As the season began, though, it became clear that the Cubs would not be contenders. It was a tumultuous season, including the trading of Derrek Lee, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, and Ted Lilly. Manager Lou Piniella unexpectedly stepped down near the end of the season, and got out as fast as he could. There was the blow ups of Carlos Zambrano, and then his resurgence at the end of the year, as he reemerged as the ace. However, there were positives, as 20 year old shortstop Starlin Castro emerged as a future superstar, and outfielder Tyler Colvin could be a solid slugger for many years. And Byrd was productive for the team, making the All Star team. At the end of the year, though, it wasn't enough, as the Cubs finished 75-87, and in 5th place. This offseason has followed with the signing of former All Star first baseman Carlos Pena, who has 40 home run power, but hit under .200 last year for Tampa Bay. They also brought back Kerry Wood, to help solidify the bullpen. Final grade for 2010: C-

Aroldis Chapman

The Cincinnati Reds were one of the more active teams last offseason, surprisingly signing Aroldis Chapman to a six year deal. Then they brought in utility man Miguel Cairo, and shortstop Orlando Cabrera. All three of these players would have major roles in a remarkable season. After a slow start, the Reds surged in May, and overtook the Cardinals. For the next 3 1/2 months, those two teams would go back and forth, never being able to pull away. The Reds battled back from adversity after adversity, including going on a long winning streak after being swept by the Cardinals in August. Their run gave them the lead for good, and they pulled away, winning the NL Central in late September, with a 91-71 record. The failures in the playoffs could not detract from the success the regular season held. This offseason, they've brought back Miguel Cairo, resigned Bronson Arroyo and Jay Bruce long term, and have begun negotiations with Joey Votto and Johnny Cueto. The only thing they've lacked is finding a true leadoff hitter, a shortstop to compete with Paul Janish, and bringing back Arthur Rhodes. Final Grade: A

Brett Myers

The Houston Astros main move last offseason was signing Brett Myers, who used to be a solid starter and closer for the Philadelphia Phillies. It proved to be a smart signing, as he quickly became the ace of the team, winning 14 games for the Astros. However, the team struggled mightily throughout the season, until late, when they went on a surge. The biggest mark they made was trading their two big names, and last links to the Astros that were formidable in the early 2000's. Roy Oswalt was shipped to Philadelphia, bringing back young starter J.A. Happ, and Lance Berkman to New York. Despite the poor start, Houston finished 76-86 on the season, which wasn't too bad considering they were once the worst team in baseball early on. Nonetheless, they made a curious move this offseason, trading Felipe Paulino, who can throw 97 and has the stuff to be a top of the line pitcher, to the Colorado Rockies for an average second baseman in Clint Barmes. Until the Astros can rid themselves of Carlos Lee's contract, they won't be able to contend regularly. Final Grade: C

Zack Greinke

Last offseason, the Milwaukee Brewers focused on solidifying their weak pitching staff. That meant bringing in veteran starters Doug Davis and Randy Wolf. Davis struggled with health issues, and was never consistent, while Wolf was up and down but was still solid. During the season, the Brewers offense was prolific, with Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Casey McGehee, Ryan Braun, and Corey Hart all hitting at least 20 homers and driving in 80 runs. Their lineup was scary good at times, and inconsistent at other times, which led to their up and down season, and a third place finish at 77-85. Their, season grade is worthy of a C, but the grade of their offseason has been an A+. Instead of addressing their pitching needs with over the hill starters, the Brewers have nabbed a pair of aces to go along with their own ace, Yovani Gallardo. Two weeks ago, they received Shaun Marcum from the Blue Jays, who went 13-8 with a 3.64 ERA. Then, this morning, they acquired the 2009 AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke, from the Kansas City Royals. Greinke was a pedestrian 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA, but was 16-8 with a 2.18 ERA in 2009. The trio of Greinke, Gallardo, and Marcum give the Brewers as good of a top three as it gets in baseball. Final Grade: B

Pedro Alvarez

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a major league embarrassment, and have been the little brother of the entire National League for almost 20 years. After doing essentially nothing last offseason, the Pirates were terrible in the regular season, going 57-105. They had no pitching, and had few bright spots on the team. Andrew McCutcheon continues to look like a future star in center, and Jose Tabata wasn't bad when he came up in left. First round draft pick Pedro Alvarez was solid at third, and looks like a potential superstar. This offseason has been curious, as the Pirates brought in former Rockies manager Clint Hurdle as their new manager, and have signed veteran first baseman Lyle Overbay, starter Kevin Correia, and outfielder Matt Diaz. All three of these guys are nice pieces to a contender, but are trade bait for bad teams. They won't help the Pirates now, but will only impede some players' progress. Final Grade: D-

Jaime Garcia

The favorites coming into the season were the St. Louis Cardinals, and they did little in the offseason, other than lock up Matt Holliday long term, and bring in Brad Penny, who made just a handful of starts before going down with an injury. Their most significant move was giving Jaime Garcia a spot in the rotation, as he rewarded them with a solid season. The Cardinals took off early in the season, but played up and down after that, failing to beat the lesser teams in the league, which ultimately cost them. An 86-76 season left fans disappointed and demanding change, as they were out of it by the time September began. What made it more difficult was watching former Cardinal Scott Rolen lead the Reds, and knowing they were losing to a team that was put together by the man that was the architect of theirs: Walt Jocketty. This offseason has been about changing the character of the team, by acquiring Ryan Theriot and Lance Berkman, and locking up Jake Westbrook for two more seasons. Whether these changes prove fruitful or not, only time will tell. Final Grade: C+

2011 Outlook: The Reds should still be the favorite for the coming year. The offense hasn't changed, and the kids are a year older and wiser, with the experience of a playoff run and October. The dynamics of the division have changed, though. In my eyes, the Brewers have surpassed the Cardinals in the standings, and will be a huge threat to Cincinnati's division title hopes in 2011. This isn't to say that the Cardinals can't or won't win it, as they are still a good team. But, the Brewers look better on paper right now then St. Louis does.

The Heist of the Offseason

Sometime past midnight last night, I heard the shocking news of the baseball offseason: Cliff Lee had shunned the Texas Rangers AND the New York Yankees. What? He decided to take a pay cut and return to Philadelphia.

On one hand, good for you Cliff. For once, a baseball player decided to take less money to go to the place he really wanted to go. All along, everyone believed Lee wanted to return to Texas. It seemed apparent he wasn't going to New York, but the Rangers were essentially offering him the same as the Yankees. Somewhere around that $140 million range. There had always been a "mystery team" involved, but no one knew who. Until last night, when Lee inked a 5 year deal worth $120 million for the team he led to the World Series 12 months ago. Apparently, despite having Roy Halladay, the Phillies realized how much they missed him.

On the other hand, this nearly makes the Phillies unbeatable with that starting rotation. Two time Cy Young Roy Halladay is the ace, followed by postseason hero and Cy Young Cliff Lee, followed by former 20 game winner and 3 time All Star Roy Oswalt. Last but not least, former World Series MVP Cole Hamels. Oh. My. God. Really? It looks nasty, doesn't it?

Despite pulling off the heist of the offseason, I'm not about to hand the World Series trophy to the Phillies. Why? Because I still think the Braves can give them a run in the East. Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and Derek Lowe aren't a bad foursome. Neither are Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner for the Giants (who beat the Phillies, remember). And those St. Louis Cardinals still loom with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, and Jake Westbrook. Should they make it to the World Series, what if they play the Red Sox? Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and John Lackey don't look too bad.

So, it's far from over. As we saw last year in the World Series, Cliff Lee was beatable. And remember: this guy rose up from nowhere three or four years ago. He could just as easily fall back there in two years. He's not 23, he's 33. And Halladay is older. So is Oswalt. Let's see if they can all keep throwing in the mid 90's for much longer. Finally, that Phillies offense looked on the decline at times. Where has Chase Utley gone? Ryan Howard didn't look like he was worth $125 million. And Jimmy Rollins was a no show with that bad wrist and hamstring. Now Jayson Werth is gone. How effective will that once brilliant offense be? All of these will be answered in time. Just don't hand Philly that World Series trophy quite yet...

All this being said, the NL Championship runs through Philadelphia once again. The Reds now need to set themselves up by being able to beat both the Cardinals and the Phillies. How do they do this? By doing nothing. Wait them out. The Reds are built for the long haul, the Phillies and Cardinals, much like the Cubs of three years ago have put a lot of big contracts on 30+ year olds. That rarely holds up. Ask the Yankees of the early and mid 2000s. I would love to see Walt Jocketty acquire Zack Greinke from the Royals, but it would cost too much. And they wouldn't be able to give him a contract extension, because then they couldn't afford people like Cueto and Votto. Even with his current salary, giving new extensions would be made difficult. The Reds won the NL Central last year by building from within. They're now standing pat, and it's the right thing to do. Let your own ace develop. Whether that's Chapman, Bailey, or Volquez, just let it happen. It's what the Phillies did three years ago with Hamels. They built from within, and they won it all. Maybe the Reds can follow suit.

Bruce, Cairo, and the Boston Red Sox

Huge news out of Reds country. Not "Joey Votto just signed a long term deal" huge, but huge nonetheless. The Reds locked up Jay Bruce to a six year, $51 million deal. They also hold an option for a seventh year that would bring the contract to $63 million. And of course there are bonuses included that he could hit based on performances. At the end of the day, though, Bruce took less money in order to sign a long term deal in Cincinnati. That's the key. Jay Bruce wanted to stay here. Both were willing to sign a deal now, and keep Bruce from hitting arbitration and making big time money. Now the Reds will keep Jay for the majority of his prime, and the Reds have showed they want to keep this team together long term. Not to mention he hasn't even tapped into all of his potential. Remember, Bruce was the top prospect for this franchise, and has every tool in the book to be a superstar. If the final month and a half of the season was any indication, he will be. Bruce may also be the key piece in getting Votto to sign here. Joey, though, is a littler older than Bruce, and both sides would probably be looking to sign a 4 year deal, not the 6 year deal Jay got. But now that one of Votto's good friends will be here in the future, he may be more inclined to stay. Also, the Reds have begun to work out a deal with Johnny Cueto to keep him here long term, and avoid arbitration.

Another important contract was given to utility man Miguel Cairo, who signed a 2 year $2 million deal. Cairo proved to be extremely valuable last year, when Rolen needed a day off, or when Votto was injured from time to time. He can play around the infield, and did a good job working the count and keeping the line moving last year. Cairo is a professional hitter that is an asset in the Reds' clubhouse. For a utility player, he was just as important to the club's success last year as a lot of other players. Remember, Cairo hit .429 when Votto went down a neck neck injury in late May. The return of his presence (and hopefully Arthur Rhodes') will keep the team stabilized going throughout the 162 game grind.

Finally, if you haven't heard, the Boston Red Sox are making waves in the AL East. After letting third baseman Adrian Beltre walk, they traded for superstar first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, formerly of the San Diego Padres. This means Kevin Youkilis will move back across the diamond to third base, to make room for the Gold Glover. Then, they signed superstar left fielder Carl Crawford to a 7 year $142 million deal. These two moves make the Boston Red Sox the prohibitive favorites to win the World Series in my mind. They nearly made the playoffs last year with an encyclopedia of injuries to their players. When healthy, they have a strong defense, with an offense that can slug, slash, and run. They also have a strong rotation, backed by aces Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester. Even if the Yankees sign Cliff Lee, the Red Sox have become the best team in the AL East, and probably all of baseball.

Reds Lock Up Bronson; Cardinals Making Moves

After already having picked up Bronson Arroyo's option for 2011, the Reds went ahead and extended him for two more years beyond that, giving him a new 3 year $35 million contract. This will take Arroyo to his 36th birthday, and I would assume the Reds will try and keep him here for the remainder of his career. After all, he has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the history of the club. He's thrown at least 200 innings in all five of his seasons in the Queen City, and won at least 14 in four of the five years, including having won at least 15 in a row for three straight seasons. Arroyo won a career high 17 games last year, and posted a career best 1.15 WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched). He's the best pitcher the Reds have had in years, and is the unquestioned leader and staff ace, though he isn't the prototypical shutdown ace. Arroyo is 70-60 in his career as a Red, and will undoubtedly get to 100 wins in his career with Cincinnati. One day, we may see #61 up in that ring of retired numbers.

And here's a shocker throughout the baseball world: Jayson Werth, formerly of the Philadelphia Phillies, has signed a 7 year $126 million contract with the Washington Nationals. This is the same Werth who hit .296 this year, with 27 homers, 85 RBIs, and an NL best 46 doubles. He helped the Phillies to the 2008 World Series title, becoming a pivotal piece to their title run. He is undoubtedly a solid player that would help any lineup. But, this deal came out of nowhere and surprised me. Why? Not from Werth's perspective. The Nationals were willing to overpay for him, and he is going to a young team with a lot of talent that could be a contender in a few years. But why did the Nationals do this? Werth isn't a centerpiece type of player. He's not Joey Votto, he's Jay Bruce. He flashes the potential to be a great player, but never becomes it. The only difference between him and Bruce is that Werth is 31, and Bruce is still 23. This deal has Alfonso Soriano written all over it. The Nationals aren't in position to make the playoffs for another two or three years, and Werth will begin deteriorating by then. He's going to a massive ballpark, where fly balls go to die. Jayson will give them three or four good years, before he begins to deteriorate, just like Soriano has in Chicago. He will become a liability to a good, young, contending team in four years. Then the Nationals are stuck with an aging has-been that they have to play because of his contract. I love the aggressiveness of the Nationals, just not the decision, or the contract.

Meanwhile, to Cincinnati's west, St. Louis has begun to make its move, in an attempt to regain the Central crown. They traded for infielder Ryan Theriot, and plan to play him at shortstop, signalling the end of Brendan Ryan's time in St. Louis. They also signed former Houston Astros star, Lance Berkman to a one year $8 million contract. What? I understand they're trying to upgrade what is truly a pathetic offense, but there's only so much you can do here. They already have an okay defensive third baseman, and are now planning to play, essentially, a second baseman with not a lot of range at short, in Theriot. Meanwhile, the guy they will get rid of, Brendan Ryan, was one of the slickest fielding shortstops in the league. Maybe St. Louis would be okay with Theriot at short, if they didn't have a converted outfielder (Skip Schumaker) playing second base, who was absolutely terrible there in 2010. And, they will play the 33 year old Lance Berkman in left field, when the Astros moved him from the outfield to first base four years ago, because his knees and weight were an issue, and he could no longer adequately field the position. Then, St. Louis will move a guy in Matt Holliday, who was an okay left fielder, to right field, where he doesn't have the arm or speed to play. This has disaster written all over it for the Cardinals' defense. They now have five below average defensive players, for a pitching staff that pitches to contact. But that will be made up by the offense right? Theriot is a singles hitter, and Lance Berkman has been on the decline for two years. Not only that, but St. Louis continues to add these slow moving sluggers to their lineup. They now have 5 players that would rank in the top 37 of double plays grounded into (Pujols - 23, Molina - 19, Berkman - 18, Holliday - 13, and Theriot - 13). So, on the surface, many would argue that the Cardinals have significantly upgraded their offense. On paper, yes, I suppose they have. But that is a lot of baserunners they will lose via the double play. And for an offense that struggled to score last year, that could be a big problem. Especially with the lack of defense the Cardinals will be showcasing now.